Firefly: This Rocket Lab Competitor Down 37% Has Misunderstood Missile Software Upside
Asymmetrical Bets
· Asymmetrical Bets
· April 13, 2026 at 22:00
· ⏱ 10 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that Firefly Aerospace (FLY) is undervalued compared to its peer Rocket Lab, despite being a vertically integrated space company with proven lunar landing capability, strong revenue growth, and defense software upside. The author suggests the market misunderstands Firefly's potential, making it an asymmetrical bet for investors.
•Firefly became the first private company to land on the moon in March 2025 (Blue Ghost lander), with 100% mission objectives met.
•Firefly has a market cap of ~$6B and trades at 12.5x forward EV/Revenue, versus Rocket Lab at 43x forward revenue.
•Revenue projected at $435M in 2026, 170% growth from 2025, driven by spacecraft (45%), defense (40%), and launch (15%).
•Firefly holds three additional CLPS contracts worth $487M combined, with NASA's CLPS 2.0 program offering a $6B budget cap.
•Elytra orbital vehicle adds persistent in-space operations with defense contracts from NRO, DoD, and SDA, plus Ocula lunar imaging with NVIDIA AI.
•Firefly went public in August 2025 (ticker FLY), down 37% from its IPO peak, but surged 82% after Artemis II splashdown and SpaceX IPO filing.
Article states Intuitive Machines 'tipped over on landing twice,' positioning Firefly as the undisputed leader in lunar surface operations, implying LUNR's reliability issues may hinder future contrac
Article states Intuitive Machines 'tipped over on landing twice,' positioning Firefly as the undisputed leader in lunar surface operations, implying LUNR's reliability issues may hinder future contract wins.
Risk: LUNR may still capture contracts; the critique is based on past performance.
The article highlights that Rocket Lab trades at 43x forward revenue vs Firefly's 12.5x, suggesting RKLB is overvalued relative to Firefly's growth and capabilities.
The article highlights that Rocket Lab trades at 43x forward revenue vs Firefly's 12.5x, suggesting RKLB is overvalued relative to Firefly's growth and capabilities.
Risk: Rocket Lab may justify its multiple if it maintains faster growth or higher margins.
The article makes a bullish case for Firefly as an asymmetrical bet, citing 170% revenue growth, 12.5x forward EV/Revenue vs Rocket Lab's 43x, and a series of contract wins including CLPS 2.0 and defe
The article makes a bullish case for Firefly as an asymmetrical bet, citing 170% revenue growth, 12.5x forward EV/Revenue vs Rocket Lab's 43x, and a series of contract wins including CLPS 2.0 and defense programs.
Risk: Company may still be unprofitable; valuation gap could persist if growth disappoints.
This newsletter, published April 13, 2026,
features Asymmetrical Bets
discussing LUNR, RKLB, FLY.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.