This $0.30 Stock Controls A $24B Resource The Iran War Is Depleting
Asymmetrical Bets
· Asymmetrical Bets
· April 01, 2026 at 17:41
· ⏱ 16 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The article argues that tungsten is experiencing a structural supply squeeze driven by Chinese export controls, depleted global inventories, and irreplaceable military demand that is terminal (non-recyclable). This creates a compelling opportunity for western tungsten producers, but the newsletter does not name specific stocks in the visible text, reserving that for paid subscribers.
•APT (ammonium paratungstate) prices surged from ~$320 in early 2025 to ~$3,000 by March 2026, a nearly 10x increase.
•China imposed export controls on 41 tungsten HS codes in February 2025, then limited exporters to 15 whitelisted firms in October 2025, effectively cutting off western supply.
•For the first time in modern history, China has become a net importer of tungsten, unable to supply its own domestic demand.
•Military tungsten demand is growing 12% in 2026, driven by the Iran conflict and NATO rearmament, and is almost entirely unrecoverable (terminal consumption).
•The U.S. Department of Defense will ban Chinese and Russian tungsten from all defense contracts starting January 1, 2027, creating a mandated floor for western-sourced supply.
•Recycling provides only 25-35% of western tungsten input and cannot offset military losses because fired munitions are never recovered.
•China’s monopoly controls 79% of global mine production and 82.7% of downstream processing, making supply chain diversion nearly impossible.
•The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act designates tungsten as both Critical and Strategic, with binding 2030 targets for domestic extraction and recycling.