This $3.6B Anduril Competitor Could Be The Next 5x Drone Stock
Asymmetrical Bets
· Asymmetrical Bets
· April 20, 2026 at 03:49
· ⏱ 18 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
The newsletter argues that AEVEX (AVEX) is deeply undervalued relative to its growth rate, capacity density, and combat-proven drone portfolio, trading at the same forward multiple as slower-growing AeroVironment. Three sequential catalysts—sell-side coverage initiation in May 2026, earnings beats through 2026, and eventual multiple re-rating toward Anduril/Shield AI levels—could drive a 74% to 434% upside, making it a high-conviction long.
•AEVEX went public April 16, 2026 at ~$3.6B market cap, trading at 4.5x forward sales vs AeroVironment 4.4x, despite 85% vs 37% revenue growth.
•AEVEX delivered 10,000+ combat drones to Ukraine, won $1.2B sole-sourced Pentagon contracts, and beat Anduril on the Army Launched Effects Short Range program.
•Q1 2026 revenue guided at $200M+ annualized to ~$800M, up 85% from 2025's $432.9M, with a funded backlog of $503M converting at 96.6%.
•Capacity density: AEVEX produces 10 drones per 1,000 sq ft per month vs AeroVironment's 1.08; revenue per sq ft is $524k vs AVAV $292k.
•ForgeX mobile containerized drone factory can produce 1,080 drones/year per unit; AEVEX plans to scale from 3 to 35 units by 2030, tripling fixed facility throughput.
•Bear case ($31) applies AVAV's 4.4x multiple; base case ($56) uses Kratos 7.8x; bull case ($171) uses Shield AI 24x forward multiple.
•Risks include Ukraine concentration, modest R&D vs private peers, IPO proceeds used mostly for debt repayment, and 79% insider voting control with October 2026 lockup expiry.
•Trading strategy: Leg I by mid-May 2026 coverage (target $45), Leg II by Q2/Q3 earnings ($65), Leg III by FY26 results and 2027 guide ($100+).
Article describes ONDS as trading at 92x trailing and 24x forward sales with 'real dilution risk, half the manufacturing capacity, and very little proven operations,' contrasting it unfavorably with A
Article describes ONDS as trading at 92x trailing and 24x forward sales with 'real dilution risk, half the manufacturing capacity, and very little proven operations,' contrasting it unfavorably with AEVEX's fundamentals. This suggests ONDS is a speculative retail favorite with poor risk/reward.
Risk: Even if sector sentiment lifts all drone stocks, ONDS's higher valuation and lower execution track record make it more vulnerable to a reversion.
AVEX is a mispriced pure-play drone stock trading at 4.5x forward sales vs faster-growing peers; catalysts from sell-side coverage initiation, execution on $800M+ 2026 revenue, and eventual multiple e
AVEX is a mispriced pure-play drone stock trading at 4.5x forward sales vs faster-growing peers; catalysts from sell-side coverage initiation, execution on $800M+ 2026 revenue, and eventual multiple expansion to peer levels could drive 74% to 434% upside.
Article states AVAV trades at the same forward multiple (4.4x) as AEVEX but grows at 37% vs 85%, and has a fraction of the capacity density (1.08 drones/1k sq ft vs 10). This implies AVAV is relativel
Article states AVAV trades at the same forward multiple (4.4x) as AEVEX but grows at 37% vs 85%, and has a fraction of the capacity density (1.08 drones/1k sq ft vs 10). This implies AVAV is relatively overvalued and faces competitive pressure from AEVEX's faster innovation and production efficiency.
Risk: AVAV's Switchblade franchise may still have incumbent advantages, but AEVEX hired the former Switchblade executive and has Dagger as a direct competitor.
This newsletter, published April 20, 2026,
features Asymmetrical Bets
discussing ONDS, AVEX, AVAV.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.