Summary
The article argues that the Energy Institute's data, while appearing to show progress on renewables, actually reveals that hydrocarbons still dominate global energy (86.24% in 2025) and that China's solar installation boom is peaking. For markets, this challenges the bullish narrative on solar and reinforces the continued relevance of fossil fuels, though the author stops short of any actionable trade.
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•Hydrocarbons provided 86.24% of global primary energy in 2025, down from 86.65% — a rounding error, while consumption of oil, gas, and coal all set records.
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•China accounts for 56% of worldwide coal consumption and 31% of global carbon emissions, compared to 5% and 13% for the US.
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•The author predicts 2025 will be the high-water mark for new solar installations in China, with future declines expected for reasons in the underlying data.
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•The Energy Institute's report conflates electricity with total primary energy and includes biomass burning in 'renewables,' inflating the sector's apparent contribution.
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•US emissions increased four times more than China's in absolute terms during 2025, despite China's much larger total share.
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•Renewables made up one-third of global primary energy growth in 2025, but total primary energy grew only ~1%, so the incremental impact is modest.