CleanSpark: This $3.2B Leopold Stock Is Finally Unlocking A $40B AI Goldmine
Asymmetrical Bets
· Asymmetrical Bets
· July 17, 2026 at 15:40
· ⏱ 15 min read
| Read on Substack ↗
Summary
CleanSpark signed a $6.6B triple-net lease with an investment-grade tech company for 175 MW of AI data center capacity, plus exclusivity on 885 MW more in Texas—a deal worth up to $40B in contracted revenue. With 33% short interest and the stock still near $13.50, the article argues this is an asymmetric rebound play, though mining losses and lack of tenant disclosure introduce risk.
•CleanSpark signed a 20-year, $6.6B triple-net lease (175 MW) with a confidential high-investment-grade tech company; first data hall delivery Q4 2027.
•The tenant also signed an LOI for exclusivity on CleanSpark's entire Texas portfolio (885 MW, 5x the Georgia site), which could add ~$33B in contracted revenue.
•CleanSpark's current market cap is ~$3.25B; the base contract alone is nearly 2x the company, and the extended version (with options) exceeds 3x.
•Short interest is 33% of float, the heaviest of any large U.S. Bitcoin miner, creating squeeze potential.
•The mining business is bleeding: Q2 FY2026 revenue down 24.9% YoY, net loss of $378M, and all-in mining cost (~$119K/BTC) exceeds BTC price (~$63K).
•CleanSpark has no HPC revenue until Q4 2027; in the interim, mining losses and BTC price volatility remain risks.
•Bernstein estimates miners with HPC contracts trade at 12.3x EV/NTM sales vs. 5.9x for pure-play miners, implying a re-rating catalyst for CleanSpark once the HPC deal is proven.
•Analyst consensus is 15 covering analysts with average price target $22.35, while the stock trades at ~$13.50.
The article builds a bullish case for CleanSpark based on the massive lease deal, short squeeze setup, and undervaluation relative to peers. Author explicitly calls it a 'coiled spring' and 'asymmetri
The article builds a bullish case for CleanSpark based on the massive lease deal, short squeeze setup, and undervaluation relative to peers. Author explicitly calls it a 'coiled spring' and 'asymmetric opportunity' but does not disclose a personal position.
Risk: Core mining business is losing money; tenant is confidential; construction financing not yet secured; BTC price could fall further and jeopardize the bridge to 2027 revenue.
Article identifies TeraWulf as a direct peer that is 'further along with financing and construction' and has a named tenant (Anthropic), implying lower execution risk and potentially a higher valuatio
Article identifies TeraWulf as a direct peer that is 'further along with financing and construction' and has a named tenant (Anthropic), implying lower execution risk and potentially a higher valuation multiple.
Risk: May already be more fully valued; any sector downturn could hit all neocloud/landlord names.
Cipher is also a direct peer with a named tenant (AWS) and more advanced construction, providing a de-risked exposure to the same thesis of Bitcoin miners converting to AI data center landlords.
Cipher is also a direct peer with a named tenant (AWS) and more advanced construction, providing a de-risked exposure to the same thesis of Bitcoin miners converting to AI data center landlords.
Risk: Same sector-wide risks; Cipher may have less near-term short squeeze potential than CleanSpark.
This newsletter, published July 17, 2026,
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