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05:35
May 20
May 20
XLB
XLE
TLT 1ST
SMH
▾
HIGH
Materials sector is also cited as low-duration (5 years) and a beneficiary of inflationary capex cycles. Author mentions materials alongside energy as having 'super powers of diversification in inflationary times'.
Risk: Materials are cyclical and could be hit by a global demand slowdown; the thesis depends on sustained capex and inflation.
XLB WATCH
Article identifies energy as having only 5 years of duration and notes it benefits from the capex boom without the rate sensitivity. Author explicitly says 'I like the US energy exporters' and that low-duration sectors become the competition for capital. XLE is the primary energy sector ETF.
Risk: If rates fall sharply or a peace deal boosts risk appetite, energy could underperform growth sectors; also commodity price dependency.
XLE WATCH
Author is short long-duration Treasuries via put spreads, betting that rising rates will continue to pressure bond prices, which in turn threatens high-duration equity sectors like semiconductors.
"my TLT put spreads went in the money and this time I decided to leave it on so I'm short a bunch of bonds."
TLT SHORT
short-term
The article argues that semiconductor stocks have equity duration of ~20 years and are extremely vulnerable to rising rates; SMH is the primary ETF tracking U.S. semiconductors and would bear the brunt of such a repricing. Author explicitly says 'Not trying to short SMH directly, not yet' but acknowledges the risk.
Risk: If rates continue to rise, SMH could see significant multiple compression; however, the scarcity thesis (real earnings growth) could offset some downside.
SMH WATCH
HIGH
18:48
May 15
May 15
GLD
AMLP
WEAT
SILVER 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Author explicitly states 'I still punt GLD and SLV instead of futures,' indicating these ETFs are his primary vehicles for gold exposure, which he is long (30% of book) despite duration concerns.
Risk: Duration mismatch with rising rates could pressure gold prices; author acknowledges internal dissonance.
GLD WATCH
Author argues US midstream and LNG names are the 'transmission mechanism into equity-land' for the oil/cascade trade and is buying them, implying sector beneficiaries from sustained elevated oil prices.
Risk: Oil delta capped due to virus uncertainty; peace scenario could unwind thesis.
AMLP WATCH
Fundamentals stronger despite selloff due to US drought, Russian planting issues, and WASDE production cut; speculative washout provides entry.
"I added a third to this position today in both calls and futures."
WEAT LONG
medium-term
Duration mismatch with book acknowledged, but added to January call structures as conviction unchanged.
"Meanwhile our Jan call structures are pretty up and out now and so we added to the position."
SILVER LONG
medium-term
Oil calls held but delta capped due to Hantavirus uncertainty; convexity benefits if virus contained and oil goes vertical.
"holding my oil delta under what the calls would suggest for at least another week"
WTI LONG
short-term
Fundamental case intact with E15 expansion bullish for demand; long vol provides patience for catalyst timeline.
"We’re in Dec contracts now and long volatility in the name."
CORN LONG
medium-term
Author uses SLV as proxy for silver position, added to January call structures, and remains bullish on silver despite short-term losses from in-the-money calls.
Risk: Same duration risk as gold; author notes need to hedge winners proactively.
SLV WATCH
HIGH
16:56
May 12
May 12
SPY
HYG
▾
HIGH
Hedging against bubble risk via the wedge of rising rates; SPX short as a macro hedge.
"Short another 5% of SPX and 10% of HYG, then a bit more in short term put spreads."
SPY SHORT
short-term
Shorting high-yield bonds as a wedge play; credit markets vulnerable if bubble pauses.
"Short another 5% of SPX and 10% of HYG, then a bit more in short term put spreads."
HYG SHORT
short-term
HIGH
11:55
May 11
May 11
USD/INR
INFY
MU
TSM
▾
MED
Short Indian rupee via long USD/INR options to profit from India's structural current account deficit worsening due to energy price spikes and AI displacing IT services exports.
"For retail: USD/INR options on CME’s Micro INR contract get you the directional view on the deficit side."
USD/INR LONG
medium-term
The article explicitly names Infosys, TCS, and Wipro as examples of Indian IT services whose labor arbitrage moat is being replaced by AI coding assistants. It notes 'coding assistants are already replacing entry-level ticket work' and that pricing pressure is appearing in contract renewals, weakening India's services surplus.
Risk: Potential upside if AI adoption is slower than expected or Indian firms pivot successfully.
INFY WATCH
The article cites Korean memory prices doubling (SSD) and NAND up 47% in a month, highlighting the surge in AI-driven memory demand. Micron is a major player in DRAM and NAND, and the AI tiger surplus story directly benefits memory manufacturers.
Risk: Memory cycle turning or geopolitical disruption in Korea/Taiwan.
MU WATCH
TSMC is the linchpin of AI chip production and Taiwan's massive surplus — the article notes Taiwan ran a $181B current account surplus in 2025 (20% of GDP) and calls Taiwan 'the most pivotal country in the world for the future of the dollar.' Any disruption would be catastrophic, but the ongoing AI demand supports TSM's central role.
Risk: Geopolitical tail risk of Taiwan blockade/invasion could collapse TSM equity.
TSM WATCH
MED
05:32
May 08
May 08
ACN
▾
MED
Accenture's AI bookings may not translate to margin expansion due to structural problems in repurposing a labor arbitrage model into an AI consultancy. The outcome determines if the short thesis on services companies weakens or holds.
"We’re watching Accenture as the canary for whether the body shops can actually pivot. They’ve announced $3 billion in AI bookings, which sounds impressive until you realize 'selling AI consulting' is a completely different business than 'selling bodies at $30/hour.'"
ACN WATCH
medium-term
MED
11:51
May 04
May 04
SB
PBR
▾
HIGH
Author expects a sugar supply deficit due to Brazilian mills diverting cane to ethanol at record levels, combined with potential weather shocks in India and high energy prices, driving sugar prices higher from current 14.95 cents.
"I am long sugar optionality in the 15-18 cent range."
SB LONG
medium-term
Author states Petrobras's gasoline price freeze is 'mathematically unsustainable' and costs $20B/year. If the freeze breaks after October elections, domestic gasoline would jump to international parity, further boosting ethanol demand and sugar prices, while also improving PBR's earnings and cash flow. The freeze is the main factor holding back even more aggressive ethanol diversion.
Risk: Lula's political calculus may keep the freeze in place longer, delaying the catalyst. Petrobras could also be forced to absorb losses if government caps prices permanently.
PBR WATCH
HIGH
23:44
Apr 29
Apr 29
VG 1ST
CRK 1ST
WTI
▾
HIGH
Venture Global is a top pick for playing the US energy dominance theme, benefiting from widening gas price spreads and LNG export growth; its contract overhang resolution could be a catalyst.
"The 'Sweet Spot' ranking surfaces names with the best combination of LNG torque, reasonable valuation, and balance sheet quality. VG (Venture Global) sits at the top of the core bucket: maximum LNG torque with high leverage to the legal/contract overhang resolution."
VG LONG
medium-term to long-term
Comstock Resources is a levered play on US natural gas, positioned near LNG export infrastructure with a clean balance sheet; expected to benefit from rising LNG demand and gas price recovery.
"CRK (Comstock) leads the small/levered bucket: Haynesville gas producer near the LNG corridor with a clean balance sheet and solid hedge matters."
CRK LONG
medium-term to long-term
Author expects further oil price increases due to physical supply deficit from Gulf conflict, OPEC fracturing, and inventory draws, with a structured options position to benefit from upside while hedging tail risk.
"We are now long 10% crude through a combination of upside broken butterflys (we buy calls near the money, sell a couple out of the money, and then buy the deep tail back in case things get pretty wacky)."
WTI LONG
short-term to medium-term
HIGH
12:55
Apr 14
Apr 14
SB 1ST
KE 1ST
ZC 1ST
SONIA 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
World sugar surplus is misleading; high oil diverts Brazilian cane to ethanol, shrinking available supply. Positioning extreme and UNICA data will confirm allocation shift, driving prices to 17.50-22.00 cents.
"We remain long sugar call spreads, Jun '26 expiry. Max gain per contract/spread is approximately $1,454 per spread, max loss $213."
SB LONG
short-term
Smallest US wheat crop since 1919, worst condition ratings since 2022, plus MENA panic buying as blockade persists. Vol surface overpriced options, so futures capture full delta without premium bleed.
"Winter wheat futures. KC HRW front month. No calls. The vol surface was telling us not to pay, and we listened."
KE LONG
medium-term
Corn surplus is large but masking a cascade of farmer decisions (pre-plant N, acreage, sidedress) that will tighten supply. If blockade persists through June, yields drop sharply and stocks tighten, driving Dec corn to $5.80-6.20.
"We hold Dec corn 525 calls. They are underwater. We are early. The thesis requires patience through gates 1-2 and confirmation at gate 3 (sidedress)."
ZC LONG
long-term
If peace resolves, UK as most energy-import-sensitive economy sees oil fall to $70, inflation collapse, and BoE cuts aggressively. SONIA futures offer convex peace upside with little cost if war scenario continues.
"SONIA Mar'27 futures are pricing that world at maybe 30% probability. We think peace odds are higher than that. The position has already paid us on the ceasefire rally."
SONIA LONG
medium-term
Short credit view via SPX put spreads; expects market weakness or volatility from escalation. Rolled from HYG puts to cleaner SPX exposure.
"I rolled the short exposure into May SPX put spreads, 1.5-4% out of the money."
SPY SHORT
short-term
Longer-term constructive on gold due to de-dollarization, Yuan/Crypto toll payments, and geopolitical risk. Moving to cheap upside structures.
"Gold is trading terribly. Correlated with stocks, underperforming on the squeeze. Heavy. ... I'm getting more bullish, not less. Slowly moving out of delta one and into long-dated call spreads and flies."
GLD LONG
long-term
The article details 21 MT of nitrogen capacity offline, including Nutrien's Trinidad plant (idle since Oct) and Lima, Ohio plant undergoing 72-day turnaround — supply constraints tighten global fertilizer markets, benefiting Nutrien's pricing power on remaining capacity.
Risk: Nutrien's own plant outages reduce volume; higher prices may not fully offset lost production.
NTR WATCH
HIGH
23:24
Apr 12
Apr 12
VIX
▾
HIGH
Author expects increased market volatility due to escalating conflict between US/Iran/China, leading to oil price surges, bond selloffs, and equity declines. VIX calls profit from rising implied volatility.
"I bot some VIX calls late last week, so call me biased."
VIX LONG
short-term
HIGH
04:23
Mar 31
Mar 31
IEI 1ST
CORN
NEXT 1ST
ET 1ST
ZCZ26 1ST
▾
HIGH
Temporary peace hedge to offset duration risk in short credit trade; not a conviction trade but fills a gap until SONIA options are accessible.
"we also picked up some intermediate US Treasuries (IEI) as a bridge... It’s boring. It’s a placeholder. It gets replaced by SONIA when permissions clear."
IEI LONG
short-term
In Appendix D, author says 'CORN and CANE track their underlying futures reasonably well' and that CORN calls are a reasonable proxy for the corn leg of the cascade trade for retail investors.
Risk: ETF can still suffer from roll costs and tracking error in extreme contango.
CORN WATCH
US LNG exporters benefit from widest Henry Hub–international LNG spread since Ukraine; infrastructure investment backdrop supports.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in ... NextDecade (NEXT shares, 34bps)"
NEXT LONG
medium-term
US midstream/pipeline beneficiary of structural energy advantage and infrastructure need.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in ... Energy Transfer (ET shares, 33bps)"
ET LONG
medium-term
Corn captures three independent legs (nitrogen cost, ethanol demand ceiling, seasonal weather vol) that compound if Hormuz cascade escalates; market hasn't priced the disruption.
"Corn December 525 calls. Options on Dec futures (ZCZ26, currently ~482), expiring in June (87 days). Around 9 cents at the ask. $450 max risk per contract. Strike is 8.9% above the Dec contract. Base case (+30%): corn to ~$627, call pays ~11x. High case ($150 oil): corn above $800, call pays 32x+."
ZCZ26 LONG
medium-term (through June expiry)
Author notes 'CF Industries is up 65% YTD with a DOJ probe' and states 'Many of these positions are expensive if not outright sells' – suggesting the fertilizer stock may be overvalued and has legal overhang.
Risk: Further regulatory action or reversal of energy advantage could hammer the stock.
CF WATCH
Benefit from structural US energy advantage as world learns Gulf infrastructure can be destroyed; pipelines benefit whether Hormuz reopens or not.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in Kinder Morgan (KMI June 38 & 40 calls for 22bps of book in premium)"
KMI LONG
medium-term
Benefit from US energy advantage and fertilizer/petrochemical cost advantage; part of the energy infrastructure complex.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in ... DOW Chemical (DOW shares, 18bps)"
DOW LONG
medium-term
Same as CORN – CANE is noted as a reasonable proxy for sugar futures in the cascade trade, with correlation around 0.95.
Risk: ETF liquidity and roll costs could dampen convexity.
CANE WATCH
Author explicitly warns 'WEAT is a disaster' with correlation to wheat futures bouncing between 0 and 0.8 (currently ~0.5) due to structural contango roll losses, making it a poor proxy for the wheat trade.
Risk: Even if wheat spikes, WEAT may significantly underperform due to rolling decay.
WEAT WATCH
HIGH
16:40
Mar 29
Mar 29
CF
▾
Author states 'CF Industries, the largest US nitrogen fertilizer producer, is printing money domestically' as US nat gas prices remain low while global fertilizer prices surge, giving CF a structural cost advantage.
Risk: If Hormuz reopens quickly, fertilizer prices could normalize, compressing CF's margin advantage; also US regulatory or export restrictions could cap gains.
CF WATCH
05:35
Mar 24
Mar 24
HYG
▾
HIGH
Short high-yield credit via HYG puts and short shares, betting on widening spreads due to geopolitical escalation (Iran war, bonds selling off).
"I'm short credit, heavy, up to my eyeballs. About 300% of net liq via HYG puts and stock short."
HYG SHORT
short-term
HIGH
04:31
Mar 12
Mar 12
ARCC 1ST
MAIN 1ST
SLM 1ST
BX 1ST
CVNA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Ares Capital is a large BDC; author expects redemption gating at Ares's private funds to spill over to the listed vehicle.
"ARCC (Ares Capital) — Mar 20/18 bear put spreads, currently at 25bps of net liq."
ARCC SHORT
short-term
Main Street Capital has outperformed other BDCs but its premium valuation makes it vulnerable to sector re-rating as credit stress mounts.
"MAIN (Main Street Capital) — Short shares, currently 28bps."
MAIN SHORT
medium-term
Consumer lending stress often precedes corporate credit stress; SLM is a satellite position in the credit short book.
"SLM (Sallie Mae) — April 22 puts, through the strike, now 34bps."
SLM SHORT
short-term
Blackstone is the poster child for alternatives industry build-out and carries maximum exposure to a regime change in private credit.
"Blackstone ($BX) — Short shares at 1.22% of net liq."
BX SHORT
medium-term
Carvana is a legacy short; author reduced position during a squeeze but remains short.
"Carvana ($CVNA) - Been short for a while, took a bit off during the squeeze, unfortunately."
CVNA SHORT
medium-term
Insurance sector is a transmission channel for private credit stress to the real economy.
"Insurance ETF ($KIE) - $50 strike puts 3-6m out. Mixture of deep OOTM and vega here."
KIE SHORT
medium-term
Blue Owl is a private credit manager directly exposed to fund redemptions, collateral markdowns, and tighter bank lending.
"Blue Owl Capital ($OWL) — Short shares at 15bps."
OWL SHORT
medium-term
Leveraged loan prices are rolling over; BKLN puts are part of the credit short book.
"Invesco Senior Loan ETF ($BKLN) - Have $20 puts, got distracted by macro chaos over the past couple of weeks and didn’t capture any monetization during the puke."
BKLN SHORT
medium-term
Author uses GoEasy's 58% drop, C$178M charge-off, dividend elimination, and admission of booking payments before collection as concrete evidence of a credit cycle tail event in consumer lending.
Risk: Company-specific fraud and restructuring risk; further downside if credit conditions deteriorate.
GSY WATCH
Author uses HYG puts as a portfolio hedge and broad high-yield credit short, expecting credit spreads to blow out as private credit cracks.
"HYG - Right at all our $79 strike, hence the massive delta on the options for around 2% of book in premium."
HYG SHORT
medium-term
HIGH
17:26
Mar 08
Mar 08
VIX 1ST
UUP 1ST
JAAA
BCRED
XLE
▾
HIGH
Vol elevated but not extreme; cross-asset dispersion from Barclays shows vol has room to run if correlations converge.
"Long VIX call spreads, March 30/40 strikes. 1.7% premium, 8.5% delta."
VIX LONG
short-term
Dollar strengthens in global risk-off episodes; reduction in Gulf surplus recycling into Treasuries supports the bid.
"Long dollar via UUP call spreads, March 28/29 strikes. 0.93% premium, 32% delta."
UUP LONG
short-term
Author notes JAAA (CLO AAA tranche ETF) is near its all-time high, indicating no stress in the safest CLO tranches; but the article warns that illiquid credit reprices last, and if credit stress broadens, even AAA tranches could see widening.
Risk: Liquidity mismatches in CLO ETFs could exacerbate selling.
JAAA WATCH
Author notes BCRED is at 97.65 barely down while CDX HY widened 13 points – private credit marks are lagged by design, and the article argues liquid markets reprice first, illiquid last, suggesting BCRED will eventually fall.
Risk: Repricing could be abrupt and severe; illiquid nature makes exit difficult.
BCRED WATCH
Author argues energy stocks (XLE as proxy) traded flat while spot oil surged because they price off the 12-24 month strip; expects the strip to repurchase structurally as production destruction persists, driving energy equities higher.
Risk: If conflict resolves quickly, the strip normalizes and energy stocks could underperform.
XLE WATCH
Author points out BIZD (BDC income ETF) is near zero drawdown and that in 2020 it fell 55%; implies current complacency in BDC sector leaves room for a sharp correction as credit stress spreads.
Risk: Energy-sensitive corporates in BDC portfolios may face covenant breaches and refinancing difficulties.
BIZD WATCH
Credit spreads too tight for a world where Fed is trapped, energy costs rising, corporate margins compressing; HYG reprices in real time and will move fast.
"Short credit via HYG puts, March and April at-the-money strikes. 2.8% premium, roughly -139% delta."
HYG SHORT
short-term
Property and casualty insurers directly exposed to physical destruction in the Gulf and rising energy costs on claims; underappreciated.
"Short insurance via KIE puts, June and September out-of-the-money strikes. 0.87% premium, roughly -7.5% delta."
KIE SHORT
medium-term
HIGH
03:05
Mar 05
Mar 05
KRE 1ST
COIN 1ST
CRCL 1ST
MA
V
▾
HIGH
Regional banks trade at 0.8-1.2x book but for reason: secular decline as tech companies capture identity and banking functions. KRE for broad exposure. Small test trade.
"Short: KRE / Regional Bank Basket. The other side of the trade. Mid-cap regionals with no tech platform, no crypto strategy, no identity moat beyond a branch network."
KRE SHORT
medium-term
COIN owns the on-ramp between dollar-world and crypto-world with Agentic Wallets, x402, USDC settlement, and US equities trading. Revenue up ~120% YoY, 33x forward earnings.
"Coinbase (COIN) is the highest conviction position. 60% of the long side. Held since 'crypto can be cool or crypto can be money, it cannot be both.'"
COIN LONG
long-term
Revenue model: hold Treasuries backing USDC, collect spread. USDC supply grew 72% to $75.3B. Agent economy provides free option on machine-to-machine settlement via USDC.
"Circle (CRCL) is the purest stablecoin infrastructure play in public markets. 20% of the long side. ... added some today."
CRCL LONG
long-term
Article mentions Mastercard's goal to replace card numbers with tokenized biometric identity by 2030, positioning it as a key player in the identity gate between human and machine finance.
Risk: Competition from tech-native identity solutions (e.g., Worldcoin) could erode Mastercard's role.
MA WATCH
Article notes Visa's network supports 130+ stablecoin-linked card programs in 40+ countries and that USDC is already the settlement layer for Visa. Stablecoin growth driven by agent economy directly benefits Visa's payment infrastructure.
Risk: Regulatory changes could limit stablecoin usage on card networks.
V WATCH
Financial super app strategy aligns with tech-becoming-bank thesis. At $82 and ~$74B market cap, P/E ~38x. Not cheap but good strategy. Waiting for drawdown to add.
"Robinhood (HOOD) — honorable mention. The right thesis, wrong price. ... Starter position, wait for it to puke, add on weakness. ... I may add to this if I look closer into this card tomorrow."
HOOD LONG
medium-term
Okta sits at the identity gate for AI agents and enterprise systems. CEO sees agentic AI as significant opportunity. Risk is Microsoft Entra, but this is a buy-and-forget position.
"Okta (OKTA) is the slowest burn but the cheapest entry. $73 at 21x forward earnings, 75% off the 2021 high. 20% of the long side."
OKTA LONG
long-term
HIGH
12:49
Feb 23
Feb 23
GOLD
▾
HIGH
Author expects heightened volatility, policy uncertainty, and fiscal strain to support gold as a hedge during the transition.
"Until then, I’m long gold."
GOLD LONG
medium-term
HIGH
20:20
Feb 21
Feb 21
USD/CNH
GDX 1ST
GDXJ
BEKE
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Banking losses and NIM compression will force RMB depreciation; PBOC cannot maintain stability while running a multi-trillion earn-through.
"Short CNH (via long-dated USD/CNH options, size to risk tolerance): If the system has $5-10 trillion in losses and NIM is compressing toward ZIRP, the pressure relief is currency depreciation."
USD/CNH SHORT
medium-term
Gold miners benefit from rising gold prices driven by Chinese demand; miners are still cheap relative to spot.
"We continue to like “Gold in China”, aka long gold denominated in RMB. GLD / GDX / GDXJ — Nothing new here, just more confirmation."
GDX LONG
long-term
Junior gold miners provide leveraged exposure to rising gold prices; part of the same structural bid.
"We continue to like “Gold in China”, aka long gold denominated in RMB. GLD / GDX / GDXJ — Nothing new here, just more confirmation."
GDXJ LONG
long-term
Author explicitly notes that KE Holdings (Beike) is the one name in KWEB with genuine property exposure and 'will drag on the long side if the property collapse deepens.' This is a specific stock-level risk within the long KWEB trade.
Risk: Further property market deterioration could weigh on Beike's revenue and profitability.
BEKE WATCH
China's banking crisis drives structural gold demand as 1.4 billion Chinese convert savings to gold; the thesis is one more structural bid under gold prices.
"We continue to like “Gold in China”, aka long gold denominated in RMB. GLD / GDX / GDXJ — Nothing new here, just more confirmation."
GLD LONG
long-term
FXI is heavily weighted in Chinese banks and insurers sitting on $5-10 trillion in hidden losses; shorting it shorts the old economy drowning in bad debt.
"The Pair: Long KWEB / Short FXI … Net exposure: short Chinese financials, long Chinese internet/AI."
FXI SHORT
medium-term
Chinese tech/internet companies are the new economy being subsidized by banking system forbearance; they have zero bank exposure and benefit from the manufacturing pivot and AI buildout.
"The Pair: Long KWEB / Short FXI … Net exposure: short Chinese financials, long Chinese internet/AI."
KWEB LONG
medium-term
HIGH
03:40
Feb 13
Feb 13
WIT
INFY
HYG 1ST
CTSH
▾
HIGH
Wipro down ~10% in the same period, included in the author's bearish thesis on legacy IT services being replaced by AI tools.
Risk: Wipro has some diversification into digital services; the selloff may already be pricing extreme scenarios.
WIT WATCH
Author explicitly names Infosys as one of the IT services firms 'about to get eviscerated' by AI, showing it dropped ~15% in four days as part of the 'Long APIs, Short Slides' thesis working.
Risk: Potential near-term bounce if AI adoption slows or IT services pivot successfully.
INFY WATCH
Credit spreads are rich relative to weak equity market; eventually credit investors will demand higher risk premiums, so shorting high yield provides cheap protection and bearish exposure.
"shorting high yield through ETFs like HYG"
HYG SHORT
medium-term
Cognizant mentioned alongside other IT services firms down ~15% in four days, directly exposed to AI replacing billable-hours consulting work.
Risk: Same as above; value trap if market overreacts.
CTSH WATCH
HIGH
15:57
Feb 08
Feb 08
TWLO 1ST
DDOG 1ST
CFLT 1ST
GTLB 1ST
NOW
▾
HIGH
AI agents need to send notifications (SMS, email, push); Twilio charges per API call and sees increased usage.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
TWLO LONG
medium-term
AI agents generate massive logs and monitoring data; Datadog charges per event and benefits from bot-scale observability.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
DDOG LONG
medium-term
AI agents require real-time event streaming; Confluent charges per event and is a core part of the bot infrastructure layer.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
CFLT LONG
medium-term
AI agents generate more code commits; GitLab charges per seat and sees increased usage as automation accelerates.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
GTLB LONG
medium-term
ServiceNow is listed as a Type 1 human-UI software (dashboard/CRM) that faces compression as AI agents replace human project managers and support reps. Seat-based revenue is at risk.
Risk: ServiceNow has strong enterprise relationships and could transition to automation, but the structural headwind remains.
NOW WATCH
AI agents constantly query databases; MongoDB charges per query and is a key tollbooth in the bot stack.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
MDB LONG
medium-term
Infosys is the largest pure-play Indian outsourcer; 85% revenue from renewals, but AI will erode headcount-based contracts. Consensus expects reacceleration, which the author fades.
"Short: CAP (highest conviction, levered), CTSH (cheapest vol, most liquid), INFY (largest pure-play, crowded but structurally right). Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
INFY SHORT
medium-term
AI agents generate hundreds of API calls per minute, increasing consumption of Cloudflare's edge services, which charge per call.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
NET LONG
medium-term
Every AI agent needs authentication on every request; Okta benefits from the surge in machine-to-machine auth calls.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
OKTA LONG
medium-term
AI agents search documents and logs; Elastic charges per query and sees increased consumption from automated workflows.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
ESTC LONG
medium-term
More AI agents expand the cybersecurity surface; CrowdStrike benefits from increased endpoint protection needs.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
CRWD LONG
medium-term
AI agents query data warehouses constantly; Snowflake charges per query and is a key tollbooth for data consumption.
"The pair trade: Long: Equal-weight basket of NET, MDB, OKTA, TWLO, DDOG, ESTC, CFLT, CRWD, SNOW, GTLB. Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
SNOW LONG
medium-term
Cognizant is a U.S.-listed IT services firm with a slow-bleed revenue profile; AI disrupts its labor-based model, and consensus estimates are too optimistic.
"Short: CAP (highest conviction, levered), CTSH (cheapest vol, most liquid), INFY (largest pure-play, crowded but structurally right). Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
CTSH SHORT
medium-term
Capgemini is a pure commercial IT outsourcer with 350k+ employees and net debt; AI replaces the labor arbitrage model, leading to revenue decay over 12-24 months.
"Short: CAP (highest conviction, levered), CTSH (cheapest vol, most liquid), INFY (largest pure-play, crowded but structurally right). Alpha: I am sizing it appropriately and scaling it in to monitor."
CAP.PA SHORT
medium-term
The article explicitly says 'Don’t buy IGV as a proxy' because its top holdings include Salesforce, Adobe, Oracle, and Intuit — exactly the human-UI SaaS being disrupted. Buying IGV means going long the names the author is avoiding.
Risk: If the market continues to lump all software together, IGV could underperform the pure infrastructure basket significantly.
IGV AVOID
Salesforce is named as a Type 1 human-UI SaaS company threatened by AI: 'If an AI agent does the work, you don’t need a seat license for the human who used to do it.' The market is right to sell these, according to the author.
Risk: Salesforce may pivot to AI features or usage-based pricing to offset seat loss; execution risk is high.
CRM WATCH
HIGH
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