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12:55
Apr 14
Apr 14
SPY
USO
GLD
SONIA
CANE
▾
Rolling short credit exposure into equity puts to avoid messy duration hedges while maintaining downside protection.
"I rolled the short exposure into May SPX put spreads, 1.5-4% out of the money."
SPY SHORT
Taking slight profits on crude call spreads following news of Iran caving on enrichment, but maintaining the bulk of the long position.
"I took off around 1% of crude call spreads after the news, down 15% from the daily highs, but still up on the trade."
USO LONG
Gold is trading poorly now, but Iran demanding toll payments in yuan and crypto is highly constructive for gold long-term.
"I’m getting more bullish, not less. Slowly moving out of delta one and into long-dated call spreads and flies."
GLD LONG
If peace resolves the Middle East conflict, oil falls, inflation expectations collapse, and the Bank of England cuts rates aggressively.
"For peace: UK SONIA short rates... The position has already paid us on the ceasefire rally, and if Iran folds on enrichment it likely pays enough to cover the grain book's losses in full."
SONIA LONG
High Brent crude makes ethanol more profitable than sugar, causing Brazilian mills to shift allocation and shrink the global sugar surplus.
"We remain long sugar call spreads."
CANE LONG
The smallest US wheat crop in a century combined with panic food-security buying from MENA countries creates a massive demand shock.
"And we added winter wheat futures after doing a ton of vol work which convinced me to puke the vol and just buy delta."
WEAT LONG
Massive offline nitrogen capacity will impact corn yields, though it has the longest fuse and biggest buffer among the agricultural commodities.
"We hold longer term (fall/winter) calls but the catalysts are closer and the mechanisms more direct in the other two."
CORN LONG
23:24
Apr 12
Apr 12
VIX
▾
The author believes the escalating conflict in the Middle East will lead to increased market volatility, as seen in the recent spike in crude and drop in stocks.
"I bot some VIX calls late last week, so call me biased."
VIX LONG
04:23
Mar 31
Mar 31
USO
KMI
NEXT
ET
DOW
▾
Spot energy and first-order oil trades are mostly priced, but the position provides direct sensitivity to the book that the author is happy to hold.
"We have about 60bps of June 85/95 call spreads we picked up for ~30bps after the front end collapsed from 120 to sub-$80 a couple of weeks ago."
USO LONG
US LNG exporters and pipeline companies benefit from structural US energy advantages and the vulnerability of international Gulf infrastructure.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in Kinder Morgan (KMI June 38 & 40 calls for 22bps of book in premium)... for a couple of weeks."
KMI LONG
US LNG exporters benefit from structural advantages as the US exports maximum natural gas and Gulf infrastructure proves vulnerable.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in... NextDecade (NEXT shares, 34bps)... for a couple of weeks."
NEXT LONG
Pipeline companies benefit from the structural US energy advantage and vulnerability of international Gulf infrastructure.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in... Energy Transfer (ET shares, 33bps)... for a couple of weeks."
ET LONG
Part of a basket of US companies benefiting from structural US energy advantages.
"Regular readers will know we’ve had positions in... and DOW Chemical (DOW shares, 18bps) for a couple of weeks."
DOW LONG
The market has already priced in the direct oil shock, so there is no edge in buying the broad US energy ETF.
"The US Energy ETF XLE has been going up in a straight shot for this reason. This isn’t where the edge is."
XLE AVOID
Corn faces compounding shocks from nitrogen fertilizer costs, ethanol demand pull if oil rises, and seasonal weather volatility.
"Corn December 525 calls... The honest summary: the grain book is on and we’re confident in it."
CORN LONG
Wheat is the global food security commodity where panic premium lands when cascade hits headlines; the out-of-the-money strike offers genuine optionality.
"Wheat July 710 calls... The honest summary: the grain book is on and we’re confident in it."
WEAT LONG
At high oil prices, Brazilian mills switch to ethanol, pulling massive sugar supply off the global export market.
"Sugar July 18 calls... The honest summary: the grain book is on and we’re confident in it."
CANE LONG
The options were fairly priced rather than expensive, and the basis risk was too high to justify the trade.
"We came close to selling put spreads on airlines (LUV)... The basis risk (oil up, ags flat) was enough to walk away."
LUV AVOID
EWY AVOID
Acts as a peace hedge; if the conflict resolves, the recent massive repricing of rate hikes will unwind quickly.
"In the meantime, we bought Schatz (German 2-year bond) Sep 106 calls on Eurex for roughly 80bps..."
SHY LONG
Serving as a temporary duration hedge placeholder until SONIA options permissions clear.
"...and some intermediate US Treasuries (IEI) as a bridge because the duration hedge to our short credit trade had rolled off."
IEI LONG
01:18
Mar 23
Mar 23
CREDIT
GLD
USO
▾
Spread compression no longer makes sense in a destabilized, de-globalizing world facing stagflation and war.
"My liquids book is 300% short credit... Short credit because the spread compression that made sense in a stable globalized world doesn’t make sense in this one."
CREDIT SHORT
A nuclear-armed country is explicitly targeting the US dollar as a reserve currency, making gold a necessary long.
"My liquids book is... long a bit of gold... Long gold because when a country with nuclear weapons tells the world to dump your reserve currency, that’s not a headline you fade."
GLD LONG
The market is underpricing the geopolitical risk to energy infrastructure and supply chains; being short oil is a risky bet on peace.
"My liquids book is... long... energy companies (natural gas exporters, pipelines)... Long energy because if you are short oil here you are betting on peace, and I’m not ready to do that."
USO LONG
04:29
Mar 20
Mar 20
SLV
GLD
▾
Shorting silver as a hedge against a long gold position to protect against a scary downside in the precious metals market.
"Then concluded the day by letting people know we sold some silver against the gold as a way of hedging what looked to be a relatively scary downside."
SLV SHORT
Holding gold but hedging the exposure with short silver due to heavy market conditions and significant downside risks.
"Then concluded the day by letting people know we sold some silver against the gold as a way of hedging what looked to be a relatively scary downside."
GLD LONG
12:49
Feb 23
Feb 23
GLD
▾
The author is long gold as a defensive position amid uncertain timing and path of market and political developments until new equilibria emerge.
"Until then, I’m long gold."
GLD LONG
03:40
Feb 13
Feb 13
WIT
TLT
CTSH
CAP.PA
INFY
▾
IT services firms that rely on billable hours are being rapidly displaced by AI models like Claude and GPT-4.
"Last Friday I published “Long APIs, Short Slides” - the thesis being that the IT services firms... are about to get eviscerated. Cap Gemini, Infosys, Cognizant, Wipro... Paired against our bombed-out "API" basket... the long/short has generated ~10% alpha in a week. This isn’t a victory lap - there’s plenty of pain elsewhere in the book."
WIT SHORT
CTSH SHORT
CAP.PA SHORT
INFY SHORT
Falling timely measures of inflation suggest the Fed has room to ease, invalidating the bearish thesis on bonds.
"If Truflation is right, the Fed has room to ease. Bonds may have gotten the message - in spite of the Warsh = Volcker 2.0 meme that sparked the metals selloff a few weeks ago. (I lifted my bond short today.)"
TLT AVOID
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