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21:00
May 25
May 25
HLIT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Harmonic is a software monopoly with 95% market share in virtualized CMTS, benefiting from the mandatory DOCSIS 4.0 upgrade cycle and growing AI bandwidth demand, with accelerating revenue, margin expansion, and a pending divestiture that will transform it into a pure-play broadband software company.
"Both authors own a position in the company and may buy or sell at any time without notice, so our views may be biased."
HLIT LONG
medium-term
HIGH
19:56
May 06
May 06
AAOI
▾
MED
The author is explicitly watching AAOI ahead of its earnings report, which they describe as a 'critical ER' and the stock's 'first real test' after a 300% run-up following their previous call.
"$AAOI Reports Tomorrow. Here's What We're Watching."
AAOI WATCH
Short-term
MED
21:52
Apr 29
Apr 29
QCOM 1ST
▾
HIGH
The author believes Qualcomm is an undervalued legacy chipmaker that is poised for an "AI re-rating" after securing a hyperscaler customer, presenting an asymmetrical upside opportunity.
"If you read our CPU report this week, we flagged Qualcomm as the most asymmetrical set up."
QCOM LONG
medium-term
HIGH
09:13
Apr 27
Apr 27
AMD
INTC
ARM
MU
NVDA
▾
Article highlights AMD's data center revenue up 39% YoY, EPYC CPU demand 'surging' due to agentic AI, and server CPU market share reaching 41% in 2025. CEO Lisa Su explicitly states 'AI agents are spinning off a lot of work... to traditional CPU tasks.' AMD is a direct beneficiary of the CPU ratio shift.
Risk: Competition from Intel and Arm-based designs could pressure margins; supply constraints may limit near-term upside.
AMD WATCH
Intel is described as 'absolutely constrained' with DCAI revenue up 22% YoY, buffer inventory depleted, and two more price increases planned. CFO Zinsner quantified unmet demand as 'starts with a B' (billions). Intel's Xeon 6 is the host CPU for Nvidia's DGX Rubin and a multi-year Google deal was signed. The CPU shortage directly benefits Intel's pricing power and volumes.
Risk: Intel's foundry execution and competitive positioning against AMD and Arm remain uncertain; capacity constraints could allow rivals to capture share.
INTC WATCH
Article notes Arm's data center royalties more than doubled YoY, Arm's share of hyperscaler CPUs expected to reach ~50% in 2026, and Arm's own SEC filing says agentic AI 'can only be done by CPUs.' The 4x increase in CPU cores per gigawatt (Arm's own model) implies massive royalty growth as Arm architecture gains share in the agentic era.
Risk: Valuation may already reflect high expectations; x86 incumbents (Intel, AMD) are not ceding easily.
ARM WATCH
Article identifies memory as a key layer: 'every CPU needs DRAM, and agentic AI demands far more of it than chatbot AI did.' The CPU buildout directly drives DRAM content per server, and the article's overall capex thesis (~$5T through 2030) supports sustained memory demand. Tight supply and rising prices (implied from CPU price increases) benefit Micron as a major DRAM supplier.
Risk: Memory is cyclical; oversupply could reverse pricing; HBM competition from SK Hynix and Samsung.
MU WATCH
Despite the thesis that GPUs worsen the CPU bottleneck, Nvidia is positioned to capture both sides: it launched Vera CPU as a 'standalone platform for agentic processing,' secured commitments from major cloud providers, and its Grace-only deployment with Meta proves CPU-only demand. The article also notes Nvidia's CEO forecast $3-4T AI infrastructure opportunity. Nvidia remains the dominant AI compute vendor, now expanding into the CPU layer.
Risk: CPU shortage could limit GPU utilization in agentic workloads; competition from AMD and custom silicon (AWS, Google) may erode GPU share over time.
NVDA WATCH
Article explicitly states TSMC's advanced-node demand is 'about three times short' (Chairman CC Wei), 3nm runs at 160K wafers/month and is insufficient, and CoWoS advanced packaging is sold out through 2026. TSM is the sole foundry for most leading-edge CPUs and GPUs, capturing ASP uplift from tight supply and multi-year capacity expansions.
Risk: Geopolitical concentration risk in Taiwan; potential demand normalization if AI capex slows.
TSM WATCH
03:49
Apr 20
Apr 20
ONDS
AVEX 1ST
AVAV
▾
HIGH
Article describes ONDS as trading at 92x trailing and 24x forward sales with 'real dilution risk, half the manufacturing capacity, and very little proven operations,' contrasting it unfavorably with AEVEX's fundamentals. This suggests ONDS is a speculative retail favorite with poor risk/reward.
Risk: Even if sector sentiment lifts all drone stocks, ONDS's higher valuation and lower execution track record make it more vulnerable to a reversion.
ONDS WATCH
AVEX is a mispriced pure-play drone stock trading at 4.5x forward sales vs faster-growing peers; catalysts from sell-side coverage initiation, execution on $800M+ 2026 revenue, and eventual multiple expansion to peer levels could drive 74% to 434% upside.
"Asymmetrical Bets and its authors hold long positions in AVEX at the time of publication."
AVEX LONG
medium-term
Article states AVAV trades at the same forward multiple (4.4x) as AEVEX but grows at 37% vs 85%, and has a fraction of the capacity density (1.08 drones/1k sq ft vs 10). This implies AVAV is relatively overvalued and faces competitive pressure from AEVEX's faster innovation and production efficiency.
Risk: AVAV's Switchblade franchise may still have incumbent advantages, but AEVEX hired the former Switchblade executive and has Dagger as a direct competitor.
AVAV WATCH
HIGH
04:28
Apr 17
Apr 17
BESI
SOI
AIXA.DE 1ST
LPK.DE 1ST
LITE
▾
HIGH
Article uses Besi (at 82x EV/EBITDA) as the high-multiple benchmark for advanced packaging; the thesis hinges on European photonics stocks re-rating toward Besi’s multiple. This indirectly validates Besi’s premium valuation and its positioning as the leader in the space.
Risk: If the European names re-rate, it doesn't change Besi’s own fundamentals; the comparison could also highlight overvaluation risk.
BESI WATCH
Soitec supplies Photonics-SOI wafers that underpin silicon photonics chips from TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and Tower Semiconductor. Currently at 14x EV/EBITDA due to cyclical trough in RF-SOI, while its AI-driven Photonics-SOI business grows 11% organically. Target of €2B revenue with 40% EBITDA margin implies multi-bagger upside on re-rating.
"This set of slept on European companies does the same critical work as Besi and ASML, but they trade at 14-36x right now. ... 2. SOITEC ($SOI): France ... This is the crown jewel of the basket on a risk-adjusted basis. ... How to play it: Soitec trades on Euronext Paris under the ticker SOI."
SOI LONG
long-term
Aixtron dominates MOCVD reactors for growing indium phosphide lasers used in AI data center optical transceivers. It trades at 36x EV/EBITDA vs Besi at 82x, with net cash and rising guidance, offering multiple expansion potential as demand for InP epitaxial capacity surges.
"This set of slept on European companies does the same critical work as Besi and ASML, but they trade at 14-36x right now. If the AI/CPO ramp hits and the market re-rates them toward their peers, the returns could be 3 to 10x. ... 1. AIXTRON ($AIXA): Germany ... How to play it: Aixtron trades on the Xetra exchange in Germany under the ticker AIXA."
AIXA.DE LONG
long-term
LPKF's LIDE process enables precise glass substrate drilling for advanced chip packaging, a critical enabler for next-gen AI accelerators. Currently unprofitable with ~€100M revenue, but if glass substrates win, revenue could reach €250M with 25% EBITDA margin, offering 4-10x upside from current levels. Binary risk but asymmetric reward.
"This set of slept on European companies does the same critical work as Besi and ASML, but they trade at 14-36x right now. ... 3. LPKF LASER ($LPK): Germany ... How to play it: LPKF trades on the Xetra exchange in Germany under the ticker LPK."
LPK.DE LONG
long-term
Article names Lumentum as the only supplier shipping 200G-per-lane EMLs at volume, with Nvidia strategically locking up their capacity through 2027. This validates strong and extended demand for Lumentum’s lasers, which are a key end-market for Aixtron’s tools.
Risk: Customer concentration on Nvidia; any slowdown in AI capex could affect orders.
LITE WATCH
Article states TSMC’s COUPE silicon photonics platform runs on Soitec’s Photonics-SOI substrates, and Soitec joined TSMC-led industry alliance. This implies TSMC is deepening its silicon photonics infrastructure, benefiting from the same AI-driven optical interconnect demand.
Risk: TSMC’s massive scale means Soitec exposure is small relative to TSMC’s overall business; upside is more thematic than direct.
TSM WATCH
HIGH
22:00
Apr 13
Apr 13
LUNR
RKLB
FLY
▾
Article states Intuitive Machines 'tipped over on landing twice,' positioning Firefly as the undisputed leader in lunar surface operations, implying LUNR's reliability issues may hinder future contract wins.
Risk: LUNR may still capture contracts; the critique is based on past performance.
LUNR WATCH
The article highlights that Rocket Lab trades at 43x forward revenue vs Firefly's 12.5x, suggesting RKLB is overvalued relative to Firefly's growth and capabilities.
Risk: Rocket Lab may justify its multiple if it maintains faster growth or higher margins.
RKLB WATCH
The article makes a bullish case for Firefly as an asymmetrical bet, citing 170% revenue growth, 12.5x forward EV/Revenue vs Rocket Lab's 43x, and a series of contract wins including CLPS 2.0 and defense programs.
Risk: Company may still be unprofitable; valuation gap could persist if growth disappoints.
FLY WATCH
21:14
Apr 08
Apr 08
AVGO
NVDA
▾
Article names Broadcom's AI networking ASICs as central to the CPO wave. Broadcom's custom switch silicon and Tomahawk/Jericho families are key enablers of the 1.6T interconnects that require the testing described.
Risk: Cyclical semiconductor demand; competitive pressure from Marvell and other ASIC vendors.
AVGO WATCH
Article explicitly states NVIDIA's next-generation switches use co-packaged optics (CPO) architecture, which drives testing intensity. As the leading GPU and networking supplier for AI clusters, NVIDIA benefits from the infrastructure buildout and the need for reliable optical links.
Risk: CPO adoption may face technical hurdles or delays; NVIDIA's networking revenue is still a small portion of total.
NVDA WATCH
17:41
Apr 01
Apr 01
18:20
Mar 26
Mar 26
SOI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Soitec holds a >95% market share in photonics-grade SOI wafers essential for AI optical interconnects, which are projected to grow from $14B to $73B by 2030. Despite current depressed revenue from mobile/auto cycles, the company's monopoly in a key AI infrastructure substrate offers asymmetric upside.
"Here’s why Soitec is our god-tier long on photonics."
SOI LONG
long-term
HIGH
18:12
Mar 23
Mar 23
MU 1ST
TSM
LITE
COHR
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Author added to Micron position after market sold off record earnings, betting on continued HBM demand from Nvidia's massive GPU factory buildout and the memory supercycle driven by inference workloads.
"we added to our positions in both Sandisk and Micron in our “Memory Supercycle” portfolio."
MU LONG
long-term
Nvidia's Spectrum-X CPO switch is built on TSMC's COUPE silicon photonics platform. TSMC benefits from increased demand for advanced packaging and photonics integration.
Risk: Capex cycle tied to semiconductor demand; geopolitical risks in Taiwan.
TSM WATCH
Same as Coherent – Lumentum received part of Nvidia's $4 billion photonics checks, positioning it as a key supplier for co-packaged optics used in AI factories.
Risk: Potential competition from other optical vendors; technology transition risk.
LITE WATCH
Article explicitly states Nvidia wrote $4 billion in checks to Coherent, and Jensen Huang confirmed photonics investment. Coherent is a direct beneficiary of Nvidia's CPO roadmap.
Risk: Customer concentration on Nvidia; execution risk on CPO production ramp.
COHR WATCH
SK Hynix projected to hold ~70% HBM4 market share for Rubin, and HBM demand is accelerating due to inference. However, article notes energy security risks related to South Korea and the Strait of Hormuz.
Risk: Geopolitical risk (South Korea energy dependence); memory pricing cyclicality.
000660.KS WATCH
Samsung unveiled HBM4E for the first time at GTC and pledged to triple capacity. The HBM supercycle includes Samsung as a competitor, but it is gaining traction as a supplier.
Risk: HBM4E production ramp challenges; competition with SK Hynix and Micron.
005930.KS WATCH
HIGH
11:49
Mar 13
Mar 13
LITE
COHR
▾
Author explicitly names Lumentum as one of two 'sector leaders' receiving NVIDIA's $4B laser capacity commitment and notes the stock has delivered 59% YTD, validating strong demand for its photonics components.
Risk: Valuation may already reflect some of the growth; execution risk on scaling manufacturing to meet NVIDIA's commitment.
LITE WATCH
Coherent is the other named beneficiary of NVIDIA's $4B laser investment, with 24% YTD performance. The article implies Coherent's laser capacity is a strategic chokepoint in the photonics supply chain.
Risk: Customer concentration with NVIDIA; potential slower ramp if GPU supply constraints delay AI cluster buildout.
COHR WATCH
12:03
Mar 11
Mar 11
PNG.V 1ST
▾
HIGH
Kraken Robotics is the key beneficiary of the Iran mine-laying crisis due to its dominant technology in mine-hunting sonar, batteries, and the Covelya acquisition making it a near-monopoly subsea drone supplier.
"This is one of our largest positions (the stock became 70% of Michael’s portfolio back in October)"
PNG.V LONG
medium-term
HIGH
19:09
Mar 08
Mar 08
SGOV 1ST
KRKNF
▾
HIGH
Author is reducing equity exposure and parking 20% in SGOV as a cash buffer to protect downside and provide optionality amid geopolitical uncertainty and a potential macro pivot.
"Before the close on Friday we decided to take some chips off the table by converting each of our portfolios to 20% cash, or in the case of the Autopilot portfolio, rolling that amount of each fund into SGOV (US Treasury Bond ETF)."
SGOV LONG
short-term
Author names Kraken Robotics as their 'favorite defense investment' and states it 'will only see revenue pull forward as the defense spending climate intensifies' following a recent acquisition.
Risk: Small-cap defense stock with potential liquidity and geopolitical execution risk.
KRKNF WATCH
HIGH
07:42
Mar 04
Mar 04
HII
KRKNF 1ST
▾
HIGH
The article explicitly notes that Voyis Imaging (part of Covelya) is the standard camera supplier across all four variants of HII's REMUS AUV, with over 700 vehicles delivered across 30 countries and production accelerating at 40-60 units per year, validating strong demand for HII's REMUS program.
Risk: HII faces its own defense budget and execution risks, and REMUS production acceleration could be impacted by supply chain or funding delays.
HII WATCH
Kraken's acquisition of Covelya creates a monopoly in subsea drone components, tripling revenue, deeply improving valuation multiples, and making the stock accretive despite dilution; the author explicitly plans to add on any pullback.
"Michael's #1 holding, Kraken Robotics... we believe this deal is extremely bullish and will increase our position tomorrow if there is pullback triggered by a mix of dilution fears, confusion, and macro anxieties."
KRKNF LONG
long-term
HIGH
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