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17:11
Aug 30
Aug 30
COPPER
XLE
NTR 1ST
IPI 1ST
ZB
▾
HIGH
Copper crowded but still bullish.
Copper is at 99th/100th percentile large-spec positioning with long specs doing the buying, not short covering; the crowding reflects genuine tightness but can persist, and copper is toying with 52-week highs with room to 7.25 on the upside.
COPPER LONG
Own energy stocks over oil.
Energy equities are structurally bullish because a higher oil shelf means cash flows are being repriced as sustainably profitable; he says you have to be super bullish energy stocks, which could have another 30% run this year, rather than neutral oil itself.
XLE LONG
Fertilizer/ag stocks turning higher.
Beaten-up agricultural commodity stocks are turning: Mosaic's bear market may have reversed, Nutrien has broken out, and Intrepid Potash is breaking out, supporting a surprise bull market in forgotten commodity equities.
NTR LONG
IPI LONG
MOS LONG
Watch for Treasury bond short squeeze.
Managed money and large speculators are extremely short 30-year Treasury futures after yields hit decade highs; the Treasury intervention may trigger a positioning squeeze if the long bond breaks its 50-day moving average, independent of fundamentals.
ZB WATCH
Buy gold, sell Treasuries.
If the Treasury is playing games to suppress rates, the natural response is to sell Treasuries and buy gold; he suspects the Greenwich crowd did exactly this, and central-bank diversification since the Russian reserve freeze reinforces gold's secular bull case.
TLT SHORT
GLD LONG
Dollar bull breakout is neutralized.
After the Bessent announcement, his currency-whisperer contact signaled 'game on' as a US dollar bear; the Treasury is seen playing with fire by suppressing rates, making this a clear signal to sell US dollars.
UUP WATCH
Wait for silver/platinum confirmation.
Silver is catching up but still lagging, while platinum and other precious metals are only getting tailwind; he is waiting for them to get hot as confirmation of another broad precious metals bull leg.
SILVER WATCH
PPLT WATCH
Nvidia growth extends AI cycle.
Nvidia's earnings and guidance blew away expectations and, by saying only supply constraints limited growth, they pushed out the cyclical-end question; the stock gapped higher and may run toward 240-250 or a $6 trillion market cap.
NVDA LONG
S&P needs Mag 7 participation.
The S&P and Nasdaq have bullish flag/continuation setups and near-term path of least resistance may be higher, but S&P 8,000 likely requires Mag 7 participation; if Mag 7 names cannot rally after Nvidia's news, the market is vulnerable later in Q4.
SPY WATCH
Grains breakout; buy dips.
Wheat, corn and soybeans have broken out decisively; even after two strong weeks, longer-term monthly charts show room for 30-40% higher in wheat if the breakout is real, though tactically he prefers buying dips after profit-taking.
WEAT LONG
CORN LONG
SOYB LONG
Oil floor near 80-90.
Oil is unlikely to sink below $70 sustainably; the fair-value shelf is probably $80-90 with outliers to $100 if conditions warrant. Positioning shows shorts are still short and longs never rebuilt, so selloffs have no one to shake out and downside risk looks limited.
WTI LONG
Broader semis not confirming Nvidia.
Despite Nvidia's blowout, the broader semiconductor complex is not responding strongly; SMH is only at its 50-day and AMD/MU/Intel/hyperscalers are flat or down, which raises risk that the semiconductor top is already in if the lack of follow-through persists.
SMH WATCH
Avoid long-dated government bonds.
Massive global bond supply from US deficits, AI capex and geopolitics is overwhelming buyers, so rising long-dated yields are a rational normalization of term premium rather than a crisis; investors should not fight this supply-driven backdrop by owning long-duration government bonds.
Long-Dated Government Bonds AVOID
Crypto no longer bearish.
Crypto's explosive bounce looks like a short squeeze but has destroyed the bear trend; although he doesn't like the asymmetry of buying at 80,000, it can no longer be called bearish and crypto/gold assets may remain leaders into year-end if pullbacks are bought aggressively.
BTC WATCH
Volatility hedging is too cheap.
With FOMC, opex and the election only 30 days away, VIX is at its year low and the three-month VIX collapsed after Nvidia; this extreme lack of hedging demand makes cheap volatility protection attractive, summarized as buying straw hats in winter.
VIX LONG
Freeport breakout targets 85-90.
Freeport-McMoRan has broken out of a five-to-six-month sideways range to new 52-week highs; the path toward 85-90 is underway as copper equities finally join the commodity rally.
FCX LONG
Natural gas squeeze potential builds.
Natural gas positioning is at the zero percentile with gross short contracts at five-year highs; while that does not guarantee a turn, the hated market has the ingredients for a violent widowmaker short squeeze, especially in the January winter gas contract.
NG_F WATCH
Uranium technical breakout underway.
Uranium flatlined for five months, then broke out almost tick-for-tick with gold's reversal; the technical breakout suggests a new uranium bull market may be underway, though the gold correlation could eventually break.
URANIUM WATCH
HIGH
06:53
Aug 16
Aug 16
JPY 1ST
OAT
BNDX 1ST
EUR/JPY
SPY
▾
HIGH
Shrinking rate differentials and repatriation support the yen.
The secular depreciation of the Japanese yen is ending as rate differentials shrink, the Bank of Japan has room to hike rates, and Japanese pension funds begin repatriating foreign assets.
JPY LONG
Short French bonds against German Bunds.
France faces a severe fiscal deficit and rising political risk from populist extremes, making French government bonds unattractive relative to German Bunds.
OAT SHORT
BNDX LONG
Short the Euro against the Japanese Yen.
Europe is facing severe structural issues, high energy costs, and political instability, while Japan is recovering. The Euro needs to depreciate significantly to save the European economy.
EUR/JPY SHORT
US equity market is overvalued as stimulus fades.
The S&P 500 has broken out bullishly and established price acceptance at higher levels, giving bulls control and setting up a potential rising wedge formation with trips to higher prices.
SPY AVOID
Semiconductors and KOSPI are in a bursting bubble.
The semiconductor sector and the KOSPI index are exhibiting bubble-bursting price action similar to the 2000 dot-com crash, with a sharp initial drop and a likely dead-cat bounce before further declines.
SMH SHORT
EWY SHORT
LATAM equities benefit from commodities and pro-market politics.
Latin American equities benefit from a positive competitive shock from cheap Chinese imports, strong commodity exposure, and a wave of pro-market political shifts.
LATAM Equities LONG
EWZ LONG
Economic weakness will support SOFR futures.
The US economy is precariously perched and likely to roll over, which will prevent further rate hikes and support higher prices for SOFR futures.
SOFR futures LONG
Agricultural commodities are breaking out technically.
Agricultural commodities and softs, including wheat, corn, soybeans, cocoa, sugar, and coffee, are showing technical breakouts that could signal a new bull market.
WEAT LONG
COCOA LONG
CORN LONG
KC LONG
CANE LONG
SOYB LONG
Oil has established a higher fair value zone.
Crude oil has found a new higher fair value zone between $80 and $90 due to a tight market and constrained supply, which is supportive for energy stocks.
WTI LONG
XLE LONG
Short USD/JPY if it holds below 160.
If USD/JPY holds below the 160 level and rolls over after retracing 50% of its recent drop, it presents a tactical short opportunity.
USD/JPY SHORT
Gold's 50% retracement offers a long-term buying opportunity.
Gold has retraced 50% of its massive two-year rally, providing a strong long-term entry point, though short-term shakeouts are possible before the next leg higher.
GLD LONG
Crowded short positioning could trigger a bond squeeze.
The US 30-year bond is a highly crowded short trade among CTAs, which sets up the potential for a violent short squeeze, despite ongoing issuance from hyperscalers.
US30Y WATCH
HIGH
11:54
Aug 01
Aug 01
EWY FLIP
CLX
COPPER
Memory stocks
XLP
▾
HIGH
KOSPI will roll over like NASDAQ 2000.
The KOSPI's recent price action closely mirrors the NASDAQ in 2000, where a massive bubble peak was followed by a sharp 40% drop, a strong dead-cat bounce that only retraced half the losses, and then a prolonged rollover and decline.
EWY SHORT
Beaten-down consumer staples will eventually rally.
Consumer staples have been beaten down so relentlessly that they are universally viewed as a value trap. This extreme negative consensus and washout could set them up for a capitulation low and a strong rally as investors eventually chase performance.
CLX WATCH
XLP WATCH
GIS WATCH
WHR WATCH
Copper looks bullish and could break out.
Copper has maintained a strong bullish chart and stayed near 52-week highs despite broad commodity weakness, and a breakout above these highs could quickly drive prices to 7 or 7.25.
COPPER WATCH
Semiconductor stocks will slowly drift much lower.
The AI and semiconductor bubble has burst, and these stocks will likely behave like silver did after its peak, experiencing a sharp correction followed by a bounce and then a long, slow drift lower.
Memory stocks SHORT
SMH SHORT
Short CHF/JPY as a stock market hedge.
CHF/JPY is an excellent proxy for a stock market decline. The Swiss have high hedge ratios and will sell CHF as US stocks fall, while the Japanese have low hedge ratios and will repatriate funds by buying JPY as US stocks fall.
CHF/JPY SHORT
GPIF policy changes will drive Yen higher.
While BOJ interventions only work temporarily, an inevitable policy change by the GPIF to reduce foreign asset holdings will create massive, sustained structural demand for the Yen, keeping USD/JPY on offer for years.
JPY LONG
Bitcoin faces heavy resistance and will break.
Bitcoin failed to reach its 38% retracement, and previous trade ranges are acting as heavy overhead resistance, making another breakdown the path of least resistance.
BTC SHORT
PBOC buying will continue to support gold.
Gold is being driven by structural buying from the People's Bank of China rather than US real rates or the dollar, and geopolitical tensions will only accelerate their accumulation of gold over treasuries.
GLD LONG
Short covering will drive 2-year notes higher.
COT data shows that the crowded net long positioning in 2-year notes is driven by shorts covering rather than new longs rushing in, suggesting the rally in 2-year notes still has room to run.
2-year Treasury notes LONG
Uranium remains dead in a distribution cycle.
The uranium market has completely flatlined and remains in a distribution cycle with zero evidence of a new bull phase, as demonstrated by Cameco giving back its post-earnings gap higher.
CCJ AVOID
URA AVOID
Record short positioning sets up oil squeeze.
Crude oil has rallied 40% and reclaimed its 50-day moving average while dips are being bought, yet COT data shows record gross short positioning with no short covering and longs not yet rebuilding, creating the setup for a massive short squeeze.
WTI LONG
HIGH
08:36
Jul 19
Jul 19
SAP 1ST
ORCL 1ST
German equity
French equity
Singapore equity
▾
HIGH
Enterprise software captures AI value through customers.
AI will be embedded into existing enterprise software, making the tools themselves more efficient and allowing companies to reduce headcount. The software vendors own the customer relationship, making switching costly; they will capture the AI value by adding AI features to their existing platforms (e.g., SAP financial software, Salesforce CRM, Oracle). This provides a high-margin, sticky revenue stream, and the sell-off in software may be overdone. Caterpillar’s finance department could shrink from 80 to 60 people using AI-augmented software, illustrating the productivity gain.
SAP LONG
ORCL LONG
CRM LONG
AI beneficiaries will see massive margin expansion.
The equity rally will shift from AI providers to AI beneficiaries — thousands of companies globally that can improve profit margins by 25–75 bps per year for 5–7 years using AI tools to cut costs. This includes US small/mid caps, European mid caps, and selected emerging markets (Germany, France, Singapore, Brazil). These boring companies can become multi-baggers on small revenue growth plus margin expansion, unlike the crowded Mag 7 trade.
German equity LONG
French equity LONG
Singapore equity LONG
European midcap LONG
Brazilian equity LONG
US small/midcap LONG
OJ breakdown with heavy long positioning.
Orange juice futures are making fresh lows with a chart that looks deathly, while speculative longs remain elevated. The bearish technical breakdown combined with still-heavy long positioning creates a set-up for further downside as longs are forced out. A short trade looks interesting.
Orange Juice SHORT
Mag 7 face free cash flow valuation risk.
The Mag 7 hyperscalers are facing a major free cash flow problem as their capex surges to build AI infrastructure. Valuations are stretched, and the transition from AI providers to AI beneficiaries means these stocks could underperform. Even if adoption remains high, the market may rotate away, and one prominent firm (e.g., Oracle) could be the first to stress the system. This warrants caution on the group.
MAGS AVOID
Gold poised for a whoosh lower.
Gold has rolled over from an extreme bullish sentiment and positioning peak. The chart shows distributive price action with repeated supply into rallies, and speculative longs are still elevated despite the correction. A final whoosh down is likely, potentially toward the 50% retracement of the recent bull run (~$3600). Real yields rising and dollar strength add macro headwinds for gold in the short term.
GLD AVOID
S&P 500 vulnerable to sudden sell-off.
The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a sharp correction. Earnings expectations are extremely elevated, and the market has priced in perfect outcomes. Implied correlations are at multi-year lows, and speculative activity is rampant (double/triple leveraged ETFs). If even a single major tech name misses or cuts spending, a broad sell-off could occur. Gold weakness may be the canary that precedes the equity downdraft.
SPY AVOID
Cocoa positioning extreme, bull run ahead.
Cocoa positioning has collapsed to net short levels among large specs, the lowest in five years, after a brutal multi-year bear market. Price is now turning higher and dips are being bought, but speculative longs have not yet rebuilt. This sets up a potential squeeze and a new bull trend as fundamentals tighten.
COCOA LONG
Semis and KOSPI flashing major warnings.
Semiconductors (SMH) are testing the critical 50-day moving average and the 570 support level that has defined the uptrend. A breakdown below this level would signal the start of a semiconductor sell cycle. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (South Korean index) has already fallen 30% from highs and is in full distribution mode, acting as a leading warning for AI-related equities.
SMH WATCH
EWY WATCH
Wheat and ag commodities breaking higher.
Wheat is breaking out to 52-week highs after a multi-year decline. Weather disruptions, fertilizer shortages tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions, and very low real prices on an inflation-adjusted basis support a sustained rally. The DBA agriculture ETF and MOO agribusiness ETF are also turning up, signalling a broader agricultural commodity upswing.
DBA LONG
WEAT LONG
MOO LONG
Coffee in early-stage bull run.
Coffee futures have decisively exited their bear market. Large speculative positioning remains near multi-year lows after a prolonged washout, yet price has broken out on Brazilian crop concerns and El Niño. The lack of speculative length suggests significant room for a rebuild, with dips likely being bought as the long-term bull phase resumes.
KC LONG
Oil set to rally as speculators rebuild.
Large speculators have been washed out of crude oil longs, positioning is back to pre-Strait of Hormuz crisis levels, and the SPR emptying represents a future re-stocking demand. Crack spreads are blowing out, and the market underestimates the upside risk. A move back to $90–100/barrel is a base case, and the tail risk is even higher given the lack of a long cushion.
WTI LONG
HIGH
07:23
Jul 05
Jul 05
USD/JPY
CHF/JPY
EUR/JPY
SMH
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long yen, rate divergence narrowing gradually
The Japanese yen is extremely undervalued on a purchasing-power basis and is being suppressed by capital outflows, but the Bank of Japan is slowly hiking rates while the SNB is on hold or may cut, causing the carry to shift in the yen's favour; he is long yen and adds that crosses like EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY are too expensive.
USD/JPY SHORT
CHF/JPY SHORT
EUR/JPY SHORT
AI/semiconductor breakdown threatens S&P 500
The AI trade is showing serious technical damage: the KOSPI and semiconductor index have broken key support and Fibonacci retracement zones with no buying at the dip, suggesting distribution; systematic CTA and volatility-control selling triggers are much closer now, raising the risk of a cascade that could pull down the S&P 500.
SMH WATCH
Short long-duration bonds, fiscal dominance persists
Investors should be short long-term bond duration because fiscal dominance is here to stay, politicians keep spending without bond-market punishment, and passive investment mandates force automatic buying, keeping yields artificially low relative to fundamentals.
TLT SHORT
Oil prices heading lower in near term
Crude oil is a structural long because the world has been draining strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) to suppress prices; once SPR selling stops, the need to refill inventories—and the desire to hold even larger SPRs after geopolitical scares—will create persistent demand, making the other side of the trade the real opportunity.
WTI SHORT
Stay long copper but own hedges
Copper remains a long, with a textbook bull trend of higher highs and higher lows respecting Fibonacci pullbacks, but positioning is extremely crowded at the 100th percentile; the bull case stays intact as long as it reclaims the 50-day moving average, but it is time to own hedges given positioning risk.
COPPER LONG
Gold is essential long-term portfolio hedge
Gold is a long-term buy because central banks have lost credibility on inflation targets, they are buying gold instead of dollars after the Russian reserve confiscation, and gold serves as essential portfolio insurance against extreme outcomes; short term could also rebound due to his Fed view.
GLD LONG
US midterms bearish for equities
The AI trade is showing serious technical damage: the KOSPI and semiconductor index have broken key support and Fibonacci retracement zones with no buying at the dip, suggesting distribution; systematic CTA and volatility-control selling triggers are much closer now, raising the risk of a cascade that could pull down the S&P 500.
SPY SHORT
Watch dollar for buyable pullback
The US Dollar Index is at extreme long positioning (100th percentile) and has broken above a 15-month range, but he is not yet fading the move; the key tell will be whether the dollar is bought on a dip back to the breakout level (~100) and 50-day moving average, which would confirm a bull continuation.
DXY WATCH
HIGH
14:01
Jun 20
Jun 20
GLNCY 1ST
ICOL 1ST
ECH 1ST
TUR 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Expert commodity producer basket for bull cycle
Commodity markets may be in an early bull cycle. Rather than trading commodities directly, owning a basket of leading commodity producer/marketing companies (Noble, Glencore, Vale, Rio Tinto, Alcoa) provides exposure to the cycle with dividend income and the expertise of professional commodity traders. He remains invested in this wedge of names.
GLNCY LONG
NE LONG
VALE LONG
RIO LONG
AA LONG
EM commodity exporters benefit from commodity cycle
The commodity bull cycle should benefit commodity-exporting emerging markets. He has never owned international equities before, but now holds country ETFs for Colombia, Chile, Peru, Africa (mainly South Africa gold miners), Turkey, Israel and India as a different way to play commodities.
ICOL LONG
ECH LONG
TUR LONG
EPU LONG
EZA LONG
EIS LONG
INDA LONG
Long-term bull market in energy stocks
Energy stocks are breaking out of a multi-decade bear market. Structural underinvestment, renewed geopolitical focus on energy security, and a long-term commodity bull cycle support a multi-year bull market in energy equities (XLE), despite potential short-term tactical pullbacks.
XLE LONG
Buy long bonds on hawkish Fed
The Fed's hawkish pivot is positive for long bonds because a central bank committed to price stability protects bondholders. The 30-year Treasury yield tested and held 5% major support, the long bond rallied on the hawkish news, and history shows bonds like a hawkish Fed. He believes you can buy 30s now.
TLT LONG
Long yen for risk-off reversal
A sustained US dollar rally is likely to eventually trigger a risk-off event, and in a risk-off environment the Japanese yen should rally as a safe haven. He remains long the yen despite current dollar strength, expecting the risk-off reversal to pay off.
FXY LONG
SPR replenishment drives oil demand higher
The sharp crude oil sell-off was a forced liquidation cascade driven by too many crowded longs, not a fundamental surplus. Inventories remain tight after wartime drawdowns, and oil should recover toward the $85-95 range once forced selling abates and the replenishment cycle begins.
USO LONG
S&P 500 stays bid into IPO cycle
After a 5% correction, the S&P 500 typically resumes its directional move without an immediate second sharp decline. The peace-deal gap neutralized the sell cycle, and with giant AI IPOs (OpenAI, Anthropic) coming in Q3, the market will likely stay bid through the issuance cycle before eventually topping.
SPY LONG
HIGH
08:13
Jun 12
Jun 12
GLD FLIP
Uranium Equities
SOFR futures
MAGS 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold breakdown entering deeper reversion.
Gold has broken below its 50‑week moving average for the first time since 2023, ending a two‑year bull run and entering a deep mean‑reversion. With a strong dollar and rising rates creating a negative backdrop, gold faces a challenging summer and further downside toward measured Fib targets.
GLD AVOID
Uranium washout; wait for dead carcass.
Uranium equities have completed a head‑and‑shoulders top and broken to new lows, entering a vicious washout cycle that could last months and match prior 50‑56% drawdowns. Once the bloodletting finishes, it will be an epic buying opportunity, but for now the trend is decisively lower.
Uranium Equities WATCH
Long SOFR futures; rates can’t stay high.
Kevin constructed a ratio put spread on Dec‑2026 SOFR futures (long 96 put, short two further OTM puts) that profits if rates fail to rise significantly. Even 50bp of additional hikes would likely stall the economy and send rates the other way, making the low‑risk trade attractive.
SOFR futures LONG
Mag 7 issuance signals market top.
The Mag 7 stocks have suddenly flipped from massive share buybacks to heavy secondary issuance (Google, Meta, SMCI), signalling a market top and a supply overhang that passive flows can no longer absorb. Patrick calls this his main short, noting the group has been lagging badly.
MAGS SHORT
Sell rips, short S&P 500.
The market is extremely overbought, showing clear distribution on hourly charts with every rally sold. Systematic selling triggers (CTAs) sit near 7,300 on the S&P, and an unprecedented wave of IPOs and secondary deals (SpaceX, Google, Meta) is draining cash. The time has come to sell the rips and short the S&P 500.
SPY SHORT
Physical crude tightness demands bullish oil.
Cushing oil inventories are at tank bottom, physically constraining the system. The market is complacent, convinced a Strait of Hormuz deal is imminent, while Trump’s optimism has capped price signals and discouraged new supply. Every day that passes makes the oil bull case stronger, as a violent price spike becomes more likely.
WTI LONG
Zero sentiment screams buy gold miners.
Gold miner sentiment just hit zero—an extreme contrarian buy signal. Miners are deeply washed out and offer powerful leverage to a gold rebound, making them even more attractive than the metal itself.
GDX LONG
HIGH
16:07
Jun 06
Jun 06
RSP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Equal-weight S&P reduces AI concentration risk.
Equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) is a smart allocation to reduce concentration risk from mega-cap tech stocks, as the index contains profitable large companies and historically outperforms market-cap weight over long periods, and it allows investors to stay invested in equities while avoiding the 'inshitification' of the cap-weighted index. Blending with quality or momentum factors can further smooth the ride.
RSP LONG
HIGH
15:38
May 23
May 23
BNO 1ST
REMX 1ST
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil higher on Strait impairment.
The Strait of Hormuz is permanently impaired due to the Iran conflict, and even a peace deal will not fully restore oil flows. Supply constraints, draining SPR, and maxed-out refineries will force oil prices higher, potentially spiking to $200. The flat price is suppressed by speculative disinterest, but physical tightness builds. He is long energy stocks and expects oil to grind higher.
BNO LONG
Rare earth metals outperform.
Rare earth metals will be the winning sector for the year. China has weaponized the periodic table, resource nationalism is rising, and the sector has already outperformed within mining. Scramble for supply and geopolitical tensions support further upside.
REMX LONG
Gold is core holding.
Gold is the core holding, supported by central bank buying, low volatility within an uptrend, and its role as a store of value. He uses gold as his 'bank' to rotate into other trades. Price consolidation above $4,500 is healthy, and the long-term bullish narrative remains intact.
GLD LONG
HIGH
13:29
May 10
May 10
Aluminum 1ST
SMH
FXI 1ST
WTI 1ST
WEAT
▾
HIGH
Long aluminum for margin recovery
Aluminum is a long because China's anti-involution campaign means they will no longer compete on margins down to zero, leading to higher profitability for the industry globally.
Aluminum LONG
SMH parabolic top in May
Semiconductors (SMH) are in a parabolic blowoff top, 53% above their 50-week moving average in just four weeks, similar to silver's recent top. The swing high is likely to occur within May, possibly within days. This does not necessarily mean a market crash but a sector rotation.
SMH WATCH
China stocks are a buy
Chinese equities are attractive because anti-involution policies are ending producer price deflation, leading to PPI inflation, healthier earnings, and a more responsive consumer. Market reforms incentivize dividends and buybacks, and net issuance turned negative for the first time. Consumer savings are huge and only 7% in equities, poised to flow in as inflation erodes cash.
FXI LONG
Long oil asymmetric risk/reward
Oil is a no-brainer long because the risk/reward is asymmetric: if Hormuz conflict is resolved, oil may fall ~$10 to the low $80s, but if it worsens, oil could spike $30+ to $120-150. Structural inventory depletion and physical market tightness provide a floor, while the market is overly complacent.
WTI LONG
Long wheat at pullback
Wheat is an attractive re-entry point on the pullback to the 50-day moving average, as it is an asymmetric trade tied to food shortage and Hormuz headlines, with potential for a sharp move higher.
WEAT LONG
Lithium shortages ahead
Lithium is likely to see shortages as early as second half of 2026 due to strong demand from EVs and storage, while anti-involution limits supply expansion. Prices are not stuck at current lows and will rise to incentivize new projects.
LITHIUM LONG
HIGH
12:02
Apr 25
Apr 25
GLD FLIP
ETH 1ST
USD/JPY
BTC 1ST
XOP 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold in correction, avoid adding
Gold had a parabolic blowoff top after a two-year bull run and is now in a correction/consolidation phase. It cannot clear its 50-day MA or Fibonacci resistance. Investors should avoid adding exposure for now.
GLD AVOID
Mispriced ETH ETF event skew
The market mispriced Ethereum options for the ETF event in May 2024. Skew was for downside, but the true risk was an approval surprise that would send ETH higher. Selling puts and buying calls (risk reversal) captured the asymmetry.
ETH LONG
Zero-cost USDJPY call ladder
A zero-cost 1x2 call ladder on USDJPY (buy 157.50 call, sell two 159.50 calls) profits from a grind higher in the pair, as 160 is a key intervention level. Asymmetry from the capped payoff and cheap premium due to high vol.
USD/JPY LONG
Bitcoin rally is only oversold bounce
Bitcoin's rally is just an oversold bounce in a risk-on environment, not a new bull market. It has not cleared any major resistance levels and lacks the conviction seen in other risk assets.
BTC AVOID
Structural bull market in energy stocks
The energy sector is in a new structural bull market due to years of underinvestment and the geopolitical shift toward energy security. The recent pullback is a buying opportunity; XOP chart shows a breakout from a long base.
XOP LONG
Sell S&P call spreads in high vol
During a week of sideways price action in S&P 500 with elevated implied vol and extremely rich put skew, selling call spreads (sell ATM call, buy a cheaper call) was the right expression to harvest premium with limited risk.
SPY SHORT
Zero-cost WTI bear put spread
Implied volatility in WTI is very high, allowing a zero-cost 1x2 put spread (buy one higher-strike put, sell two lower-strike puts) to bet on a sharp move lower if a deal reopens Hormuz. The structure benefits from vol compression and the right tail of a crash.
WTI SHORT
Gold miners could outperform gold
Gold miners may offer a place to hide relative to gold itself, as Newmont's earnings were solid and the group could grind higher even if gold stays in a choppy range.
GDX LONG
Japan equities: buy and forget
Japan's equity market is a long-term buy-and-forget position, supported by structural reforms, corporate governance improvements, and a semiconductor tailwind. The Nikkei is at 52-week highs and should be held.
EWJ LONG
Long Brent for backwardation and asymmetry
Long Brent crude is attractive because the backwardation provides positive carry, and the asymmetric risk of a spike higher, given structural inventory draws and the potential for a sudden re-escalation, makes it a good trade.
BNO LONG
HIGH
15:25
Apr 11
Apr 11
BIZD 1ST
US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries
Long-term VIX options
US Dollar (DXY)
CBON 1ST
▾
HIGH
Short high yield and BDCs as recession plays.
The high-yield credit market and BDC space are vulnerable because the really bad credits have moved into private credit, creating a bubble. The public high-yield index has improved in quality but is still priced for perfection and will widen when the economy rolls over. Shorting via BIZD and the high-yield index offers a better risk/reward than shorting equities.
BIZD SHORT
HYG SHORT
Short-end bonds benefit from recession.
Short-term Treasury yields (2s and 5s) are attractive because the economy is perched on a precarious ledge and the Fed will eventually cut rates. Front-end bonds provide a cleaner way to play the recession outcome without the duration risk of the long end.
US 2-year and 5-year Treasuries LONG
Long volatility on Trump-era uncertainty.
In the current Trump-driven environment of wild geopolitical gyrations and unpredictable policy, owning long-term volatility (via options) is a prudent portfolio hedge and profit opportunity. The large moves are likely to persist, and long-dated volatility allows patience while structural uncertainty remains elevated.
Long-term VIX options LONG
US dollar to fall as release valve.
The US dollar is the ultimate release valve for the fiscal and geopolitical pressures. With the rest of the world repatriating capital, Trump's policies undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, and the massive US fiscal deficit, the dollar is set to decline. This is a cleaner bet than shorting bonds because the government will fight rising yields but not a weaker currency.
US Dollar (DXY) SHORT
Chinese bonds best performers, buy for total return.
Chinese government bonds have been the best-performing major bond market over the past 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. The Chinese economy is managed for bondholders, offering total returns that outpace Western bond markets. Despite low nominal yields, the total return story is compelling and often overlooked by investors fixated on equity returns.
CBON LONG
Central bank gold buying drives long-term bull.
Gold is in a long-term bull market driven by central bank buying, especially the People's Bank of China, which will continue accumulating for years. The recent geopolitical sell-off was a cleansing of speculative positions, creating a buying opportunity. The thesis is not about short-term war premiums but about structural demand from reserve diversification.
GLD LONG
Long bonds contrarian bet on slowdown.
Long-dated US Treasuries (30-year) present a compelling risk/reward over a 3-9 month horizon because CTAs are now max short bonds, the economy is facing headwinds from high oil and tight credit conditions, and a recession would trigger a significant bond rally. However, timing is difficult as another leg down is possible if oil spikes further.
TLT LONG
Energy stocks underowned, cheap, structural bull.
Energy stocks remain underowned and undervalued relative to the structural tailwinds from underinvestment, geopolitical supply risks, and the likely persistence of elevated oil prices. Canadian energy is particularly attractive given long-life reserves and potential pipeline developments. The sector is still cheap despite being the best performer over the past year.
XEG LONG
HIGH
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