BOND INVESTORS SHOULD WAKE UP (Guest: Guenter Grimm)

Summary

Guenter Grimm joins Kevin Muir and Patrick Ceresna to discuss the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, the mirror-opposite short-term and long-term inflation risks, and macro trades. Grimm sees near-term disinflation led by lower oil, but a secular rise in inflation ahead; he is long gold, long yen, short duration, and wary of US midterm political risk. Kevin Muir adds a structural bullish case for oil based on SPR refilling. In the talking charts segment, Patrick Ceresna flags technical danger in semiconductors and the AI trade, watches the dollar at a key level, and likes gold and copper on asymmetry.

• Grimm expects near-term oil price weakness and lower headline inflation, giving the Fed cover to stay on hold.
• Long-term, he sees inflation revisiting 3% due to demographics, deglobalisation, and fiscal dominance.
• He recommends gold as a core portfolio hedge, yen longs on narrowing rate divergence, and shorting long-duration bonds.
• Political risk from the US midterms is seen as negative for equities.
• Kevin Muir argues the real oil trade is to position for a future SPR refilling cycle once current selling ends.
• Patrick Ceresna warns that semiconductor and KOSPI breakdowns, along with tight systematic triggers, threaten a broader equity pullback.
• COT data shows extreme dollar longs, washed-out gold, and crowded copper positioning, shaping near-term tactical views.