Guenter Grimm

The AI trade is showing serious technical damage: the KOSPI and semiconductor index have broken key support and Fibonacci retracement zones with no buying at the dip, suggesting distribution; systematic CTA and volatility-control selling triggers are much closer now, raising the risk of a cascade that could pull down the S&P 500.

Investors should be short long-term bond duration because fiscal dominance is here to stay, politicians keep spending without bond-market punishment, and passive investment mandates force automatic buying, keeping yields artificially low relative to fundamentals.

Crude oil is a structural long because the world has been draining strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) to suppress prices; once SPR selling stops, the need to refill inventories—and the desire to hold even larger SPRs after geopolitical scares—will create persistent demand, making the other side of the trade the real opportunity.