Feed - Buzzberg

18:21
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@Wade_Finley I thought I heard him say that, so he wants people to lower their tax payments, basically to rob Peter to pay Paul?

18:17
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@AndreasSteno @acullen03 @KingKong9888 @TFL1728 Oh boy... you don't know who @acullen03 is, do you? https://t.co/ZMQbJVhpNu

18:00
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@mercurynfo the math on USTs is at least as obvious as the math was on subprime housing in 2005-07.

TLT

HIGH

17:59
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@bestfriend369 After its priced in and most accounts are crying in their beer, you will get nothing but good news from me.

17:49
Apr 16

@lukegromen

Source: https://t.co/jNicQeZDzm

17:49
Apr 16

@lukegromen

Henry Paulson Says US Should Prepare for a ‘Vicious’ Bond Crash - BBG, 4/16/26 Conspicuous in its timing, IMO. "Why am I reading this now?…

17:29
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 Tom - your ability to misunderstand and then misconstrue a point I was trying to make is impressive. Yes or no: Does China borrow …

16:58
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@Brian_A_E I am posting physics, supply chain, and compounding interest math. That you & so many others call it doom tells me all I nee…

16:50
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@Brian_A_E a) Because it's not true b) Because its an immensely useful read on sentiment to see how many randos like you are trolling me ab…

16:42
Apr 16

@lukegromen

Shot: EUROPE HAS 'MAYBE' 6 WKS OF JET FUEL LEFT, IEA HEAD SAYS: AP Chaser: GULF, EUROPEAN OFFICIALS SEE US NEEDING 6 MONTHS FOR IRAN DEAL -…

16:39
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@dean_roberti You're missing the point

16:37
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@cyclepath834 Well, we need China to refine the REE's and tungsten for us, so there's that

16:36
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@sahil_vi possible, likely someone ought to let bond markets know...LOL

16:22
Apr 16

@lukegromen

For want of a nail, part 2 - Australian mining edition: https://t.co/tlI0pCYF9b

16:20
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@FlagelloMagoo4u @TFL1728 @AndreasSteno ...trade pressure they relieved by selling off USTs, putting upward pressure on UST yields.

16:00
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@Andre_Dragosch @TFL1728 @AndreasSteno price spikes are only the first stage now we are getting into the shortages then come the factory s…

15:58
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@FlagelloMagoo4u @TFL1728 @AndreasSteno Read the articles - 2022's record trade deficits in Japan and Korea were directly related to oil and…

15:54
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@Andre_Dragosch @TFL1728 @AndreasSteno IMO b/c they think it will last only 3 days...only 14 days...only 28 days... Bessent said "50 days o…

15:52
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno That's not what I'm arguing. War & Hormuz closure is certain to trigger a combination oil price spike & supp…

15:47
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@MindMathMoney @TFL1728 @AndreasSteno I agree. Alligator jaws usually close in the end. This since BOJ lifted ceiling on 10y JGB YCC (red,…

15:19
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@AlfredENewman5 @LawrenceLepard Thank you. Very few paying attention to 2nd derivatives again It will hit them like a 2x4 to the head soon

15:16
Apr 16

@lukegromen

Eventually, I hope... I say "hope", b/c for past 60 yrs, wars of choice have been very bad for US industry long-term (lyrics of "Born in th…

TLT

MED

15:15
Apr 16

@lukegromen

Eventually, I hope... I say "hope", b/c for past 60 yrs, wars of choice have been very bad for US industry long-term (lyrics of "Born in the…

14:52
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno that's not what i'm arguing Tom I'm arguing that the debt will become problematic before oil goes back to $50 and t…

14:46
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno Yes, because that was the last time oil spiked, dude Come on Try to keep up before shooting your mouth off

14:46
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@AlexAnLo11 A great way of putting it and such an underappreciated fact

14:45
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@elpolodiablo75 @nnzp1730 To be clear, @nnzp1730 has forgotten more about manufacturing than I will ever know. I posed the question hoping h…

14:43
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno Tom, you are wrong, and my chart shows it. In 2022 oil spiked, & Japan & Korea posted record trade deficits …

14:38
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@nnzp1730 When COVID shut Asia and EU down, it was not good for US industry or economy - why will this be different?

14:36
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@JeffDiamond3 100% Sentiment check: I’ve been getting trolled relentlessly this week that the supply chain breakdown I said would start in …

14:31
Apr 16

@lukegromen

https://t.co/wUQnpszV2l

14:28
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@Interpreter2026 @AndreasSteno 100% Makes me wonder if they actually believe all these wars in and around oil producers for the last 23 yea…

14:13
Apr 16

@lukegromen

3) Higher rates with US debt service/GDP already at record levels will go higher still. And as a % of receipts, interest is already >25%...…

14:10
Apr 16

@lukegromen

2) With US interest/GDP already at record highs & going higher (mathematically given shift to front end & lagged effect of rates), an oil sp…

IEF

HIGH

14:06
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno Let's take a couple of these one at a time so maybe you'll understand better. 1) Yes, US Federal debt service as % o…

13:52
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno No, it's not Tom. If unit of oil per unit of GDP fell, but unit of Federal debt rose far faster than GDP over the …

00:06
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@bboygaf Yeah, no Not mine But they are all very consensus views

00:00
Apr 16

@lukegromen

@Aegis007X That’s a lot of words just to not describe how we are more competitive now or how going to war will make us more competitive Whi…

23:50
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@Aegis007X @OffGridOutlaw So was yours, but it was wordy and angry, which you should know is not good for your vascular system https://t.co/…

23:48
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@Aegis007X We did all those things for the past 45 years while sending Detroit’s factories and jobs to Mexico and then to China, sir, so wha…

23:45
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@JoshMandell6 Without REE’s and Tungsten we can’t make w/o China? Hmmm

23:42
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@bboygaf Then you should be able to easily give me my China bear case. Please?

23:36
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@nickvannewkirk @lighthousejerry So they can cut off the goods that support their own military and valuation of S&P 500 at record levels…

23:35
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@bboygaf And if China is losing, why are we going to war to try to choke them out as so many assert? And I have given the counterfactual ma…

23:27
Apr 15

@lukegromen

Odd thing to ask for a war that is over 🤔

23:23
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@bboygaf What’s the bull case on China?

23:20
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@lighthousejerry These are the same people that didn’t think or know China would weaponize REE’s last year; and thought DOGE could cut costs…

23:18
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno 2/ Only one of the nations whose currencies are in the IMF SDR has seen borrowing costs drop v. 2, 5, 10, and 15 year…

23:12
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@TFL1728 @AndreasSteno No it hasn’t For example, the US, Federal Interest + Entitlements is ~100% of receipts; that was ~60% as recently as…

22:47
Apr 15

@lukegromen

@Known__Unknowns 100%