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16:00
Apr 16
@brad_setser
And remember that a slow controlled pace of appreciation (which keeps the CNY structurally undervalued) tends to produce very large scale re…
15:57
Apr 16
@brad_setser
And the intervention is being done through the backdoor -- the $35bin March settlement did not appear on the balance sheet of the state bank…
15:53
Apr 16
@brad_setser
The Treasury would have to look to a period other the calendar 2025 in the April report -- but if it decided to base its determination of a…
15:51
Apr 16
@brad_setser
The magnitude of the purchases over the last 12ms of data $460b spot, $580b including forwards creates the basis for a Treasury finding of m…
15:49
Apr 16
@brad_setser
Fx settlement is in my view the single best proxy for China's true intervention. It looks like China, Inc bought about $35b in fx in March …
13:14
Apr 16
@brad_setser
i was on Oddlots talking about petrodollars and a few other things yesterday
05:02
Apr 15
@brad_setser
@cloutserver read my blog including the technical bits and come back at me. and my ifri paper. and come back at me with your real id and …
04:59
Apr 15
@brad_setser
@ProDogNapper low blow but deserved
04:25
Apr 15
@brad_setser
Endorse. The standard conception of economic power has shifted from influence over rules and norms to control over choke points and the pol…
20:38
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Indeed -- EV tariffs (CVDs) also were clearly an insufficient response (lower than China's old WTO bound 25% auto tariff on Tesla and BYD, …
20:24
Apr 14
@brad_setser
@AliHakimrabet please change your handle and stop impersonating me; thanks
20:23
Apr 14
@brad_setser
@MoMoMacro Agreed. if oil is $150 for several months it becomes the main show ... but we aren't there
20:23
Apr 14
@brad_setser
@dpinsen @izakaminska as you wish --
18:41
Apr 14
@brad_setser
The big winners are Russia, the stans, South America (net oil exports of 5 mbd or so) and North America ... so there will be a lot of onshor…
18:35
Apr 14
@brad_setser
And of course the normal comparative statics of an oil shock don't apply when the shock is a function of lower exports from the biggest trad…
18:35
Apr 14
@brad_setser
The simple reality is that when oil was at $70 there were a lot more manufacturing dollars (from East Asia's surplus) sloshing around at pet…
18:33
Apr 14
@brad_setser
The UAE doesn't produce good data, but for the other GCC exporters it is possible to track their foreign asset accumulation -- and it was wa…
18:32
Apr 14
@brad_setser
And while surpluses returned in the mid 2000s -- the way those surpluses are managed has changed (a lot more petroequities, a lot fewer petr…
18:30
Apr 14
@brad_setser
There is a strong tendency to talk about the world as if nothing has changed since the famous 1974 Saudi deal with Treasury Secretary Simon …
18:28
Apr 14
@brad_setser
A new blog on a hot topic -- petrodollars The basic theme though is back when oil was at $70 there weren't actually many petrodollars -- an…
17:39
Apr 14
@brad_setser
A discussion of section 122 -- balance of payments tariffs -- for those interested. Turns out that the statute never defined its key terms …
14:34
Apr 14
@brad_setser
So China looks to have joined the rest of oil importing Asia and resisted a bit of depreciation pressure during the March oil shock -- not a…
14:32
Apr 14
@brad_setser
We don't have the fx settlement numbers for March yet, but given the size of the state bank sales, I would look through the $10b March incre…
14:31
Apr 14
@brad_setser
And the dip came in the most liquid parts of their fx portfolio (reverse repos and funding of non-banks) 3/ https://t.co/ZWX9Vx3kqU
14:29
Apr 14
@brad_setser
The FX sources and uses table (FX balance sheet) of the SCBs tell the same story -- the state banks reduced their foreign fx assets in March…
14:28
Apr 14
@brad_setser
The Iran war took the heat off China's currency. After facing strong appreciation pressure from November through February, the direction o…
13:51
Apr 14
@brad_setser
@michaelxpettis not a new reality; exports solid. weak march balanced by strong february. new year timing effect. y/y q1 exports up 15% in…
13:47
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Highly recommend the FT's Big Read on the second China shock
04:55
Apr 14
@brad_setser
One of the best Big Reads of all time -- The thing to read to understand why the undeclared war with Iran cannot take the second China sho…
04:52
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Great use of data -- backed by ple ty of supporting anecdotes 8/ https://t.co/GHxq8chSSS
04:49
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Grest former policy maker quotes 7/ https://t.co/ivBVKPEM1Q
04:48
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Great policy maker quotes 6/ https://t.co/nrhJI0LixR
04:47
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Great detail "In just one example, China’s Jaecoo 7 SUV, with a starting price of £29,000, became the UK’s best-selling car in March" 5/
04:45
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Well said 4/ https://t.co/78aBbYnPyM
04:43
Apr 14
@brad_setser
"The country’s protracted property slump and weak social safety net have curbed consumer spending, resulting in zero inflation last year and…
04:41
Apr 14
@brad_setser
This is the definitive synthesis of the macro and the micro, of currency policy and industrial policy and much more Great piece https://t.…
04:38
Apr 14
@brad_setser
My work on this earth may be nearly over -- or at least my work of the last 4ys could be in its final chapter. The FT's Big Read is on the …
04:34
Apr 14
@brad_setser
it is actually a good number. it comes after a super strong February (new year effect + real growth) and off a high base. y/y export growt…
04:03
Apr 14
@brad_setser
@MoMoMacro terms of trade a big factor
03:58
Apr 14
@brad_setser
@MoMoMacro export prices will rise tho. what fraction of the monthly $30b in monthly chip imports last spring/ $50b in chip imports this ma…
03:53
Apr 14
@brad_setser
And it is clear that China is currently being hit by a double terms of trade shock -- higher prices of imported oil are in the March data an…
03:52
Apr 14
@brad_setser
now in the past chip imports were seen as a leading sign for electronics exports -- but tis true that domestic Chinese demand is higher now.…
03:51
Apr 14
@brad_setser
So what happened -- oil and product imports were up $5b v February (looks to be price effect) but are actually down a bit y/y (last March t…
03:48
Apr 14
@brad_setser
and of course China didn't suddenly start importing a lot of cars either 7/ https://t.co/0PDYbGfj2x
03:46
Apr 14
@brad_setser
And on the import side, well, it wasn't all oil ... The first sign is the jump in imports from Taiwan and Korea 6/ https://t.co/nzfF11J2p1
03:44
Apr 14
@brad_setser
And for goods like cars were volumes can easily be tracked (number of cars/ vehicles exported) it is clear that the strong y/y numbers are "…
03:43
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Export volume growth in March -- if and it is a big if February prices carried over and there is case export prices jumped -- would be aroun…
03:41
Apr 14
@brad_setser
y.y dollar exports were up 15% v q1 2025 -- which is huge. + $125b or so. February of this year was strong b/c of new year timing, so s…
03:38
Apr 14
@brad_setser
Q1 is always a difficult quarter -- new year timing and all. Last March was strong v last February, and it was the last change to beat the…
03:36
Apr 14
@brad_setser
China's March trade numbers are stronger than they appear at first glance. Strong imports pulled down the trade surplus, but export perform…