Daily Alpha · X
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Themes on this desk
Anthropic valuation
Jukan said the valuation had been cut in half from $2 trillion; @stocksavvyshay put the target at about $1.02 trillion versus a $965 billion private valuation; @thematictrader cited a fully diluted target of $1.1-1.2 trillion.
Leveraged chip dip-buying
SOXL drew $5.1 billion of inflows last week, its second-largest weekly intake on record, despite falling 40% over the same period, per KobeissiLetter.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →Microsoft warns a Chinese optical transceiver ban could halt US AI data-center expansion
Microsoft has 35 US data centers under construction and 134 planned, while China controls roughly 67% of the global optical transceiver market, Reuters reports.
$MSFT - MICROSOFT WARNS CHINESE COMPONENT BAN COULD HALT US AI DATA-CENTER EXPANSION Microsoft ($MSFT) is urging the Trump administration
Coherent and Lumentum lack the production scale to replace Chinese suppliers.
Watch The administration's decision on the planned ban.
Source →Anthropic's S-1 shows $5.0 billion of short-term compute in Q3
Short-term compute costs significantly more than multiyear contracts. Q2 operating income of $970 million turned into a $570 million Q3 operating loss, which the company attributes to $5.0 billion of short-term compute and $2.0 billion of noncash donation matching charges.
What Anthropic's S-1 discloses about its expensive short term chip rentals (aimed at SpaceX) - Most compute is secured 12
The company says short-term compute use will keep increasing near term and compress operating margin.
Watch Short-term compute spending and operating margin in the next reported quarter.
Source →SoftBank's CFO denies Elon Musk's claim that it is defaulting on turbine orders
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) relays CFO Yoshimitsu Goto saying the default claim is "simply not correct at all". Serenity says this mirrors Scott Strazik's comments about seeing no procurement cancellations or counterparty financing difficulties.
New commentary today from SoftBank on Elon Musks post 4 days ago:
Serenity calls them damaging allegations about the company financing OpenAI and Stargate.
Watch Further turbine-order or procurement commentary from SoftBank.
Source →Infineon guides fiscal 2027 to about EUR 20 billion with EUR 4 billion of data-center revenue
September-quarter revenue rose 19% year over year to a record EUR 4.706 billion, and the December quarter is guided to EUR 4.6 billion, down only 2%. AI power revenue was EUR 1.7 billion in fiscal 2026.
Infineon QSep26 - Revenue up 13% q/q and 19% y/y to ATH €4.706B (in line with the €4.7B guide);
Fiscal 2027 is guided up 20% at gross margin in the mid-to-high 40s.
Watch December-quarter revenue against the EUR 4.6 billion guide.
Source →