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· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
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Pat Gelsinger says AI has moved the chip bottleneck to manufacturing, packaging, memory bandwidth and power
The former Intel CEO argues AI has dramatically compressed chip design, moving the constraint into manufacturing, advanced packaging, memory bandwidth and electrical power. He expects roughly a hundred AI accelerator startups to consolidate toward a handful of architectures and calls memory the most overdue area for innovation in three decades.
Peter Boockvar warns markets lean heavily on AI data center construction as long-term rates rise
Boockvar says global rates are rising on Japan's exit from yield curve control, inflation and debt and deficits; he thinks rates may have peaked in the short term but sees a longer-term rising-rate environment. He warns a large share of earnings growth is concentrated in a few semiconductor names.
A Fidelity strategist says AI earnings are compressing valuations while rising real yields drive a quiet correction
A Fidelity global-macro strategist sees an AI-driven earnings boom large enough to keep valuations from becoming bubble-like, but warns rising real yields and heavy Treasury supply are producing a quiet, rate-sensitive correction beneath a top-heavy index.
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OAT — · HYG -0.1% · UTILITIES — · XLRE +1.8% · XLP +0.5% · XLK +0.8%Bloomberg's Ed Ludlow says OpenAI's $70 billion figure is a run-rate target, and flags weaker iPhone 18 Pro demand
Ludlow explains OpenAI targets reaching or exceeding $70 billion in annualized revenue by year-end, a run-rate rather than booked revenue, and that the gap versus the earlier ~$50 billion figure stems from gross versus net revenue treatment through cloud partners. A Nikkei report suggests Apple cut component orders, with higher memory costs lifting handset prices.
Morgan Stanley says high mortgage rates and lock-in keep housing sales near 40-year lows
Morgan Stanley securitized products researchers say mortgage rates near multi-year highs and the lock-in effect keep housing activity stuck near 40-year lows and worsen affordability for marginal buyers.