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· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Gavin Baker argued open-weight competition is good for AI infrastructure demand, and optical posts centred on Lumentum being sold out through early 2029.
Themes on this desk
Optical supply
Lumentum's sold-out-through-2029 comment drove read-through posts on AAOI as another laser supplier.
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →Gavin Baker says less model-layer revenue does not mean less AI infrastructure spend
Baker argues that enterprises running open-weight models on premise would mean zero model-layer spend and bankrupt frontier labs while being maximally bullish for AI infrastructure demand. He calls an Anthropic and OpenAI duopoly the worst outcome for infra demand.
This is exactly wrong. Less revenue and/or margin at the model layer does not equal less AI spend at the
On his argument, margin pressure at the model layer is not a negative signal for AI infrastructure demand.
Watch Whether Jensen Huang keeps funding open-weight models.
Source →Bernstein: memory pricing drove about 80% of the chip industry's 119% year-to-date revenue growth
@pequityresearch cites Bernstein: memory pricing drove about 80% of the global semiconductor industry's 119% year-to-date revenue growth through August 2026. A post it quotes from @OptionKing666 puts memory's incremental sales at about $443 billion, $379 billion of it from price.
Bernstein: memory pricing drove approximately 80% of the global semiconductor industry's 119% year-to-date revenue growth through August 2026.
The quoted @OptionKing666 post says semiconductor momentum depends heavily on sustained memory contract pricing rather than broad unit recovery.
Watch Memory contract pricing.
Source →Lumentum's CEO says it is completely sold out through early 2029
@ren_stocks says the Lumentum CEO told Bloomberg it is sold out through early 2029 with no end in sight, after citing 2028 six months ago, and that its main Japan factory grew roughly 12x in two years. New laser capacity takes three to five years, and hyperscalers now help fund it.
$LITE is up 6.5% after hours.
@ren_stocks argues overflow demand has to go to other laser suppliers such as AAOI.
Watch Hyperscaler long-term commitments funding new laser capacity.
Source →Delta guided about 40 cents a gallon of Q4 refinery benefit, versus 13 cents in Q3
@thevalueist notes Delta's refinery delivered 13c/gal in Q3 against 5c in its July guide, and Q4 guidance bakes in about 40c/gal for an all-in fuel price near $4.25/gal. The author reads it as Delta expecting jet refining margins to stay wide through year-end.
$DAL $VLO $MPC $PSX $DK $CLMT Monroe/refinery guide, straight from the release:
The author calls it a supportive setup for VLO, MPC and PSX Q4 prints.
Watch Whether refiners convert those cracks through their own slates in Q4.
Source →AAOI's CFO said in August that demand outran capacity, with supply spoken for through the second half of 2027
@gaetano2026 recalls CFO Stefan Murry saying at the August 18 Rosenblatt conference that demand was outrunning capacity expansion, with supply effectively spoken for through the second half of 2027 and beyond. Murry expects to sign several long-term agreements but wants terms that protect long-term profitability.
Very strong bullish read-through for $AAOI. AAOI has already been telling us customers want more than it can produce.
AAOI makes its own lasers; the author says Lumentum's comments strengthen the case for that capability becoming more valuable.
Watch AAOI long-term agreement signings.
Source →