Daily Alpha · X
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X research focused on the size of a 4.8 million-ton diesel commitment, Lumentum's supply constraints, and the balance sheets of Alphabet, Nebius and CoreWeave.
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Market Radar →Lumentum CEO: laser chips are the biggest bottleneck
Some products are undershipped by 30% into 2028 and others by 70% next year; Lumentum is considering M&A to add CMOS, likely within the next year, and a Chinese transceiver ban would benefit it.
CEO of Lumentum, Michael Hurlston, on Lumentum's business:
Chinese transceivers have about 100% share in China and 70% in the US, per the CEO.
Watch Any Lumentum CMOS acquisition.
Source →TheValueist: a 4.8 million-ton diesel commitment equals about 35.8 million barrels
Using 7.45 barrels per ton, the pledge is roughly nine days of US diesel demand, about 1.3 days of global demand and about 45 days of Russia's normal diesel export flow.
$VLO $MPC $PSX $DK $CLMT The math first, using 7.45 barrels per metric ton of diesel:
TheValueist calls it a very large commitment relative to Russia's typical exports of roughly 0.8 million barrels a day.
Watch US distillate stocks, at a record seasonal low around 110-115 million barrels.
Source →Alphabet's long-term debt has grown ninefold since end-2024
Alphabet spent $46 billion on buybacks last year but nothing this year, and started selling shares, including $10 billion to Berkshire; it still holds over 2x cash and investments to total debt.
$GOOGL | Alphabet's long term debt has grown ninefold since the end of 2024 Last year they spent $46 billion
Alphabet said spending will rise significantly again next year, and cloud customers have signed up for over $500 billion in future business.
Watch Alphabet reports on October 28.
Source →Marvell's FY31 outlook implies a $37.5 billion interconnect business
That interconnect midpoint compares with roughly $12 billion of total Marvell revenue expected in FY27 and exceeds the $30 billion management models for custom silicon.
$MRVL’s FY31 outlook implies a $37.5 BILLION interconnect business at the midpoint.
Interconnect could become Marvell's largest business.
Source →Nebius and CoreWeave carry similar gross debt but very different net debt
Gross debt to annualized Q2 revenue is 3.7x at Nebius and 3.4x at CoreWeave, but net debt is 0.2x annualized revenue at Nebius versus 2.9x at CoreWeave.
In the race to ramp up, Nebius $NBIS and CoreWeave $CRWV have similar gross debt to annualized Q2 revenue, at
Nebius has more liquidity and flexibility to build capacity.
Source →