Daily Alpha · YouTube
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Who was talking 57 videos · 11 channels
Refined products over crude
1 video · 34mConley argues crude flows have normalized through Hormuz while hit refineries, Ukrainian strikes on Russian plants and an extended Russian export ban keep distillate tight; Young puts refined product equivalents above $200 a barrel on low e
Young: prediction markets price 32% odds WTI above $115 by year-end, far above the forward curve
Young notes traders on prediction markets assign a 32% chance to WTI above $115 by end-2026, which he says is not reflected in the WTI forward curve at all and is more in line with his own bullish view; he also dismisses futures as poor spot predictors while treating the crack-spread forward market as better informed.
Sovereign duration
1 video · 50mDalio sees a US debt crisis within three years as foreign creditors pull back and says France has hit its borrowing limit; McHenry warns a delayed debt-ceiling fight could hit Treasuries harder than 2023; Nolting expects at most one more Fe
Dalio: US debt crisis within three years as debt service crowds out spending
Ray Dalio said a US debt crisis is likely within the next three years, framing it mechanically: the US spends about $7 trillion a year while taking in $5 trillion, so accumulating debt and debt-service costs squeeze out other spending.
TBPN: millennials 30-44 are the lone cohort growing less worried about AI risk
Hosts cite an Economist chart showing that from August 28 to September 18 every age group except millennials aged 30-44 became more worried about AI causing serious harm, with the 45+ voter base and 65+ cohort showing rising 'very serious' concern; they attribute the millennial outlier to comfort with rapid tech change.
Alphabet near deal to buy nuclear power from Constellation for data centers
Bloomberg reported Alphabet is close to an agreement to buy nuclear energy from Constellation Energy to power data centers, with the deal expected to be announced this week and Google paying Constellation roughly $3 billion.
Ivo Chermont puts 95% odds on a Flávio win
Ivo Chermont argues the election is 95% decided, citing Lula's need to capture 62% of votes from eliminated candidates (or 40% even if Cury's votes all go to Lula), versus Lula's 2002 runoff transfer of only about 50% and 2022's roughly 30%, and the PT's shrinking vote-transfer capacity since 2002.