Daily Alpha · Substack
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Themes on this desk
Real yields
Campbell attributes the entire rise in the 10-year yield since May to real rates, with breakevens lower and 10-year real yields at 2.88%, framing equity strength as risk-premium compression.
Memory roadmap
Damnang's SK hynix expert argues 3D DRAM and cell-peripheral separation, not scaling, decide the next memory race.
Oil dissent
Rooster's preview raises the possibility that oil has begun a Wave C decline, the visible bull-case counterweight to trading-house tail scenarios.
Stocks-up/bonds-down move is driven by real yields, not inflation
Campbell argues the entire rise in the 10-year yield since May is from real rates, not inflation: breakevens are lower than in May while 10-year real yields sit at 2.88%, above where the October 2008 TIPS auction cleared during the GFC.
If the move is real-rate driven rather than inflation-driven, the standard 'stocks beat bonds on inflation' hedge does not explain current equity strength, implying equity multiples are being justified by growth/AI-capex expectations against a higher real cost of money.
Watch Track 10-year TIPS real yields versus breakevens; a reversal where breakevens lead and real yields fall would invalidate the real-rate framing.
Source →SK hynix expert interview frames next memory race beyond scaling
A public preview of an interview with an SK hynix process expert covers 3D DRAM, separating cells from peripheral circuits, HBM, and AI systems, arguing the next memory race will not be decided by scaling alone.
If the memory roadmap shifts from pure scaling to 3D DRAM and cell/peripheral separation, the competitive moat and capex requirements for HBM and DRAM suppliers change, affecting memory makers and their AI accelerator customers.
Watch Whether SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron disclose 3D DRAM or cell/peripheral separation roadmaps in coming quarters; absence of such disclosures would undercut the thesis.
Source →Rooster questions whether oil is starting Wave C down
A public preview titled 'IS THIS THE START OF WAVE C DOWN ON OIL?' raises the possibility that oil has begun a Wave C decline, an Elliott-wave framing of further downside.
A Wave C down call on oil implies a bearish energy view, relevant to crude-linked equities and inflation expectations that feed into the real-yield/breakeven debate.
Watch Whether oil makes a lower low consistent with a Wave C decline, or reverses above the presumed Wave B high, which would invalidate the count.
Source →