Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack's main reads were Asymmetrical Bets' Qualcomm CFO interview and Outlier Capital's argument that 2026 rhymes with 1999 but with real earnings.
Qualcomm CFO Interview On Its Massive Pivot To AI Chips, Wearables, And Robotics
Qualcomm is attempting to pivot from a smartphone-centric story into a diversified AI/processing company, with data center, auto/IoT, personal AI devices, and robotics as growth vectors. The author argues the thesis has strengthened after the pullback, but base-case valuation is only fair and the big upside depends on execution or a narrative rerating, while Apple modem loss, Arm litigation, and data center execution remain key risks. • Qualcomm raised its FY29 non-handset revenue target from $22B to $40B, targeting data center, smartphones, and auto/IoT as roughly equal businesses, with non-handsets expected to be about 66% of QCT revenue versus roughly 28% in FY25. • The Amazon deal is a 10-year, $60B transaction covering custom AI inference silicon and optical connectivity up to 1.6T; it includes a warrant for up to 25M Qualcomm shares at $161.26, with 3.75M earned upfront and the…
Source →The Market Is Repeating the 1999 Pattern. Is the Lost Decade Beginning?
The article argues that the 2026 market rhymes with 1999 in valuation and AI capex scale, but differs because earnings are already materializing and the capex boom is constrained by physical shortages rather than hollow hope. It means the lost-decade crash thesis is unlikely on current data, but the S&P 500 is the wrong instrument to express the AI bottleneck trade; investors should own specific companies with existing earnings and supply-chain scarcity. • The Shiller CAPE has been above 40 since May, the second time in 150 years, with the first being the dot-com top. • Oxford Economics puts AI-related capex at 27% of US fixed investment in Q2 and above 2% of GDP over three years, making it the largest technology boom since the 1840s British railway mania. • Goldman Sachs (Sept. 25) forecasts hyperscaler spending of $800B this year, $1.2T in 2027, $1.4T in 2028, and $7.6T cumulative…
Source →An Introduction to AI Medicine. A Very Promising Theme.
An Introduction to AI Medicine. A Very Promising Theme. Had to get this out. I mentioned a few weeks ago that after I finish up my Physical AI investment layers that I would start digging into AI medicine.
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