‘Global Monetary Order Is Changing’: Investor Explains The Selloff And What’s Next | Darrell Thomas
Summary
- The global monetary order is shifting, evidenced by massive central bank gold purchases and ongoing de-dollarization trends.
- The US economy is experiencing a "K-shaped" recovery where inflation and the loss of purchasing power are severely impacting average citizens while asset owners benefit.
- Geopolitical instability (e.g., US/Iran tensions) could drive oil prices to $200 a barrel, creating a 1970s-style stagflationary environment.
- The US reliance on China for 90% of rare earth refining is a critical vulnerability that will require trillions in domestic infrastructure and mining investments.
- In highly volatile markets, holding short-duration Treasuries provides a safe yield while preserving the liquidity needed to buy market pullbacks.
Trade Ideas
"Central banks around the world that have the most capital are buying tons of gold... I think that the gold price is not reflecting this geopolitical crisis." As the US continues to run massive deficits and off-balance sheet liabilities, fiat currency will inevitably lose purchasing power. Hard money like physical gold will revalue higher to reflect this debasement, while gold miners (GDX) offer leveraged upside to the rising price of the underlying metal. Long physical gold and gold miners as a core savings vehicle and hedge against systemic fiat debasement. Gold can experience sharp, sudden drawdowns (like the recent 20% drop mentioned in the video), and mining equities carry operational and jurisdictional risks.
"I'm looking at some of the oil royalties... Franco Nevada... Viper Energy... Texas Pacific Land, as well as Landbridge. They have a lot less risk than some of the other companies." Oil is currently a "hated asset" but remains a global economic cornerstone. Instead of taking on the massive capital expenditure and operational risks of direct oil drillers, investors can buy royalty and land leasing companies. These companies act as landlords, collecting toll-like revenues from the producers drilling on their land, providing high-margin exposure to rising energy prices. Long energy royalty and land-leasing companies for lower-risk, high-margin exposure to geopolitical oil shocks. A severe global recession could crush oil demand and prices, directly reducing the royalty revenues collected by these firms.
"I've been buying the exchange stocks, you know, such as the exchanges that own the New York Stock Exchange... think about it as owning the roads and the toll booths, rather than owning the cars." Retail investors constantly try to pick winning stocks or cryptocurrencies, which is highly risky. Financial exchanges operate the underlying infrastructure of the market. They generate revenue from trading volume, data services, and transaction fees regardless of whether the broader market is going up or down. Long financial exchange operators to profit from overall market participation and volatility without taking single-asset directional risk. Prolonged bear markets or low-volatility environments can lead to decreased trading volumes, which compresses exchange revenues.
"There is a lot of uncertainty right now and you got to be nimble. So I'm holding more cash nowadays in T-bills, short duration treasuries, so I can earn a yield and just see what the market does." In a macro environment characterized by geopolitical conflict and a K-shaped economy, asset prices can swing violently. Holding cash equivalents in short-duration Treasuries provides a risk-free yield while preserving the liquidity necessary to aggressively buy risk assets when they sell off. Long short-term Treasury ETFs to generate yield while maintaining maximum optionality during market volatility. Reinvestment risk if the Federal Reserve aggressively cuts interest rates, which would lower the yield generated by cash equivalents.
"We are relying on China who refines about 90% of the world's rare earths, and these are critical minerals to the livelihoods and global militaries. We need to be investing in that." The US military and tech sectors cannot remain dependent on a geopolitical rival for critical minerals. This vulnerability will force the US government to direct massive capital (subsidies and contracts) toward domestic mining and refining infrastructure, directly benefiting onshore rare earth producers like MP Materials. Long domestic rare earth miners as a geopolitical hedge and direct beneficiary of US supply chain onshoring. Mining and refining rare earths is highly capital intensive; additionally, China could temporarily flood the market with cheap supply to crush the margins of Western competitors.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published March 16, 2026, features Darrell Thomas discussing GLD, GDX, FNV, VNOM, TPL, LB, ICE, CME, NDAQ, SGOV, MP. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Darrell Thomas · Tickers: GLD, GDX, FNV, VNOM, TPL, LB, ICE, CME, NDAQ, SGOV, MP