Nvidia is still years ahead of any competitor, says Wedbush's Dan Ives
Speakers
Dan Ives — Head of Technology Research at Wedbush
— Wedbush analyst
Summary
- Nvidia is 2-3 years ahead of all competitors, including Google, with chip demand outstripping supply by 12 to 1.
- Order backlog estimated at $600-700 billion, far exceeding street expectations and not fully priced into the stock.
- AI infrastructure build-out is in year 3 of an 8-10 year cycle, with future growth from physical AI, autonomous robotics, and software use cases.
- Contrarian view: Market sentiment has cooled, but fundamentals are accelerating with minimal credit given to Nvidia's dominant position.
Speakers
Dan Ives — Head of Technology Research at Wedbush
— Wedbush analyst
Summary
- Nvidia (NVDA) is estimated to be 2-3 years ahead of any competitor in AI chips, including Google's TPUs and upcoming alternatives.
- Demand for Nvidia chips vastly outpaces supply, with a ratio of 12:1 and an order backlog potentially reaching $600-700 billion.
- Significant future growth drivers like physical AI and autonomous robotics are not yet factored into the stock price.
- Dan Ives sees $130-$150 of upside per share not reflected in the current valuation, implying a substantial price target increase.
- The AI infrastructure build-out is viewed as only in year 3 of an 8-10 year cycle, indicating a long runway for growth.
Trade Ideas
"NVIDIA IS 2 TO 3 YEARS AHEAD OF ANYONE INCLUDING GOOGLE... DEMAND AND SUPPLY IS 12 TO 1 FOR NVIDIA CHIPS... I'D SAY 130 TO $150 LEFT IS NOT FACTORED INTO THE STOCK." Nvidia's immense technological lead and ecosystem lock-in create a durable competitive moat. The 12:1 demand/supply imbalance and massive backlog indicate pricing power and visibility. The $130-$150 upside estimate stems from the street underestimating the software opportunity and future use cases (physical AI, robotics) in a multi-trillion dollar market, positioning Nvidia to capture the majority of AI-related capital expenditure over an 8-10 year build-out cycle. LONG because the stock is mispriced relative to its dominant market position, visible demand, and long-term growth trajectory that is still in its early stages. Geopolitical tensions impacting sales (e.g., China restrictions), eventual competitive catch-up by rivals, a macroeconomic slowdown reducing AI investment, or execution errors in product development or supply chain.
