FWONK Liberty Formula 1 (Series C) : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Speaker notes that Liberty Media is a collection of high-quality assets. He highlights Formula 1 (F1) having a "9-year revenue CAGR of 71%" and Moto GP having a "4-year revenue CAGR of 159%." He also details the tax-efficient split-offs of Liberty Live (Live Nation stake). Malone’s structure allows investors to own high-growth sports and entertainment monopolies (F1, Moto GP, Live Nation) while the holding company actively manages tax liabilities to prevent capital erosion. The historical data on F1 proves the operational excellence under Liberty's ownership. Long high-quality media assets managed by the best capital allocators in the industry. Regulatory pushback on sports monopolies or a decline in the popularity of F1/Moto GP.

Liberty Formula One (Series C) has pulled back 23% to ~$83. They have a new lucrative deal with Apple TV ($140M/year vs $85M previously). The pullback offers a scarcity premium entry point. The move to Apple TV, while risking some viewership reach, provides guaranteed cash flow. The corporate structure has been simplified (Liberty Live split), making it a pure play. Buy the pullback; target price $95+. Reduced viewership on Apple TV could hurt long-term sponsorship revenue.

Liberty Media's Formula One has had $1.9B wiped off its market value. Uncertainty surrounds upcoming races in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia due to the war. Cancellations mean lost revenue and broadcasting rebates. SHORT. Geopolitical risk is existential for their immediate calendar. Races proceed without incident; market overreacted.