AS ASTER Aster Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

Long ASTER as the speaker closed a previous position and rotated into ASTER, indicating a new long bias.

The author explicitly advises buying ASTER and holding, indicating a strong bullish conviction on the ticker.

1. THE FACT: Lighter launched with zero fees, forcing competitors like Hyperliquid and Aster to cut their own fees to stay competitive and retain traders. 2. THE BRIDGE: Lighter's disruptive fee model is directly pressuring the revenue and margins of incumbent perpetual DEXes. This creates a relative value opportunity where the disruptor (Lighter) gains market share at the expense of the incumbents. 3. THE VERDICT: Execute a pair trade by going long Lighter and shorting a basket of its competitors (e.g., Hyperliquid, Aster) to capitalize on this competitive dynamic.

Avi thinks Aster is an underappreciated five-bagger: it has generated volumes, fees, open interest, and buybacks that are a large fraction of Hyperliquid's while being valued at roughly 4.5x less. He sees it as a levered bet on the DEX space and on CZ/Binance/World Liberty regulatory connections, with potential to flip Hyperliquid in circulating supply; he is long with 2x leverage and did some farming.

Avi thinks Aster is a five-bagger because its perp volume, fees, OI, and buybacks are close to Hyperliquid's while HYPE is valued at roughly 4.5x Aster; CZ controls supply and can use regulatory connections to bootstrap the DEX, making it a levered bet on the DEX space.

Alice says perp DEXs are a top 2026 growth driver and a buying opportunity among quality projects because they have real use cases and generate revenue, trading volume, and open interest. She names Aster and Hyperliquid as leading names in that perp DEX narrative.

Jonah is skeptical of Aster because he doubts CZ is uniquely committed to it. He points to CZ's history with BNB-chain projects like Pancake Swap, which he promoted and then faded, and argues CZ will cut Aster if it loses traction. He is not a buyer of Aster.

Avi sees a credible bull case for Aster: it is a CZ-controlled vehicle with real buybacks, and CZ cares about his legacy after jail/pardon, so he is unlikely to run a pump-and-dump. Avi thinks CZ may be going for a 50-100% increase, making Aster a 'most hated rally' and a token that has traded like someone cares.

Avi sees Aster as an app chain with real buybacks and a CZ-linked story. He thinks CZ is more focused on legacy than a small pump-and-dump and could make a CZ-controlled vehicle the most hated but powerful rally in crypto, so he is looking at Aster and says holders could benefit if CZ targets a much larger net-worth increase.

Jonah agrees shorting Aster is a good trade: its product is inferior to Hyperliquid, attention left after Plasma, it has only pseudo-CZ backing, no real usage/community, and activity is incentive-driven. He thinks ASTER can go 40% lower, though he avoids outright shorting because CZ/Binance could manipulate or squeeze it.

Avi’s trade idea is that Aster topped out around $2; one can deposit collateral on Aster, short the token with leverage, cover lower, and farm points. He thinks it is a good trade but lacks enough conviction to put on serious size.

Rather than shorting ASTER outright, Avi prefers a relative trade: long HYPE and short ASTER. The edge is that Hyperliquid is a better product and Aster lacks real usage, while the long-HYPE leg helps offset the risk that CZ/Binance-backed flows squeeze an outright ASTER short.

Jonah proposed shorting ASTER with leverage and using the position to farm points because Aster appears to have topped out near $2, attention shifted to Plasma, and the product is not as good as Hyperliquid. He still thinks it is a good trade but lacks conviction because CZ/Binance backing could paint the tape and squeeze shorts.

Aster is a good short-term trading asset despite weak fundamentals. It traded up very quickly, then pulled back about 35% from its highs, leaving many traders sidelined; that creates FOMO and supports a round-two trade. Avi is watching it and would nibble/buy around $1 with an exit around $2 if a more significant pullback occurs. CZ backing and the potential to steal perp DEX market share from Hyperliquid improve the setup.

Aster is not a fundamentally investable asset and should be avoided. It has almost no operating history or statistically significant revenue base to justify a roughly $2.4 billion valuation, and the token is not yet linked to real business cash flows. It is more like a memecoin than a Hyperliquid-style vehicle that buys back tokens with business revenues, and even potential future announcements would have only a few days of live operating data to support them. High volatility can also nuke retail traders, so Jonah will not chase the chart or FOMO.

Avi sees a possible round-two trade in Aster after a 35% pullback; it is CZ-backed and can steal perp DEX share, and he would nibble near $1 to sell near $2.

Jonah strongly avoids Aster: there is no revenue history to justify valuation, buying it is chart and vibes trading, turnover looks like wash trading or potential fraud, and it is Trumpcoin-like with no real linkage to fundamentals.