30-year Treasury bonds Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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23:20
Sep 16
Sep 16
Long bonds attractive on safety and carry.
He loves the long bond: 30-year yields around 5.35% offer positive carry, and if the equity bubble bursts the Fed would cut rates and trigger a flight to safety, giving long bonds the most upside. An AI-driven productivity/deflation scenario would also help, and the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility improved after today's meeting.
HIGH
21:04
Sep 16
Sep 16
Long bond offers safety, high real yield.
Joseph says he loves the long bond. He likes 30-year Treasuries and 30-year TIPS because the equity market is a bubble; when it declines, the Fed cuts rates and there is a flight to safety, giving the long bond the most upside and positive carry. He also sees a possible AI-driven deflation scenario as supportive. He notes 30-year TIPS offer about a 3.1% real yield, historically high, and feels better after the Fed showed it is serious about controlling inflation; ex-energy inflation is near 2%, and the Middle East energy shock is likely temporary.
HIGH
23:41
Sep 11
Sep 11
Long-end Treasury yields may fall.
If the Fed hikes short rates, bond traders may reward the discipline by pushing long-end yields lower; Cramer thinks rates on the 30-year/long end of the Treasury will go down, not up.
MED
12:59
Aug 31
Aug 31
Long-end Treasuries offer carry value.
Long-end Treasury yields are capped because 30-year yields are roughly 150 basis points above fed funds, offering decent carry and better value for long-term investors, so it will take time to push the long end materially higher despite fiscal worries.
HIGH
20:53
Aug 26
Aug 26
Watch bonds compete with stocks eventually.
The trigger for higher yields to matter is likely asset allocation, not private-sector stress: 30-year Treasury bonds yield about 3% above expected inflation and long-dated US investment-grade corporate bonds again yield more than 6%, so the key question becomes when investors decide bonds offer better value than stocks; Morgan Stanley is watching fund flows and correlations for that shift.
MED
22:46
Aug 24
Aug 24
Thirty-year Treasury yields should reach five percent.
Today's bond market rally is mostly bottom fishing; Treasury buybacks will help liquidity and reduce volatility but will not materially lower long-term rates, maybe 5-10 basis points. Fundamentals suggest the 30-year Treasury yield should be near 5% given the economy and inflation.
HIGH
20:40
Aug 24
Aug 24
Treasury buybacks can lower long-end yields.
The Treasury can tap up to $950 billion to fund expanded long-end bond buybacks, has doubled minimum longer-dated buybacks to $4 billion, and is signaling larger purchases; this gives it firepower to push long-term yields lower, making 30-year Treasury yields the key thing to watch.
MED
23:55
Aug 18
Aug 18
Buy 30-year Treasuries and average down.
Investors can treat 30-year Treasury bonds like a stock by buying at current yields around 5.28% and averaging down if yields reach 5.5%, securing a decent return without fearing a global financial crisis.
MED
19:51
Aug 14
Aug 14
Avoid Treasuries on deficits, rising yields.
Rising federal deficits and heavy Treasury issuance are pushing long-term bond yields higher, and many bankers are saying to stay away from bonds because there is no effort to rein in spending; the debt market tends to send signals to the White House.
HIGH
14:43
Aug 04
Aug 04
Buy 5-7yr Ts, avoid 30yr.
A hawkish Fed that keeps inflation expectations anchored while real yields have risen makes the 5-7 year part of the Treasury curve extremely attractive from a valuation standpoint, whereas the 30-year remains risky and should be avoided due to term premium and deficit concerns.
MED
19:10
Jan 22
Jan 22
Fed cuts and inflation downside favor Treasuries.
The Fed will eventually cut rates and inflation is likely to surprise to the downside through 2026 because tariff effects are peaking, shelter disinflation is coming through, and food and agriculture commodity inflation has fallen, which should support long-duration Treasuries even though long yields have not fallen much yet.
MED
15:00
Jan 02
Jan 02
Long-term government bonds are poor risk-adjusted.
Cullen views long-term government bonds, including T-bonds and long-term TIPS ladders, as terrible long-duration instruments. For investors with a time horizon of seven years or more, he believes almost anything else, such as a 60/40 portfolio or stocks, will generate better risk-adjusted returns. He also dislikes the bond market structure because the US government issues duration without regard to investor needs.
HIGH
About 30-year Treasury bonds Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks 30-year Treasury bonds across 7 sources: 6 bullish vs 1 bearish calls from 10 authors. Historical directional balance: 42% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 12 total trade ideas tracked. Past 7 days, before deduplication: 2 bullish. Latest voices: Joseph Wang, Jim Cramer, George Goncalves.