Ideas
Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101 / ex-Senior Trader, Federal Reserve
1:34
Fed will hike two more times.
Joseph expects at least two more Fed hikes, not just one, because the Fed still sees policy as accommodative and almost no FOMC member views it as restrictive. The dot plot signals higher-for-longer: the 2028 median fed funds rate rose to 3.9% from 3.4%, and longer-run neutral estimates increased, implying hikes followed by an extended hold. The path depends on financial conditions, equities, and Middle East developments.
Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101 / ex-Senior Trader, Federal Reserve
10:34
Long bond offers safety, high real yield.
Joseph says he loves the long bond. He likes 30-year Treasuries and 30-year TIPS because the equity market is a bubble; when it declines, the Fed cuts rates and there is a flight to safety, giving the long bond the most upside and positive carry. He also sees a possible AI-driven deflation scenario as supportive. He notes 30-year TIPS offer about a 3.1% real yield, historically high, and feels better after the Fed showed it is serious about controlling inflation; ex-energy inflation is near 2%, and the Middle East energy shock is likely temporary.
Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101 / ex-Senior Trader, Federal Reserve
18:08
Housing weak, homebuilders under pressure.
Joseph says mortgage rates above 7% are hurting housing. High-end cash-buyer strength initially held up, but even the high end is now faltering, while the leveraged lower end remains weak, as reflected in homebuilder stocks. If mortgage rates stay high and stocks fall, the housing bottom is not in yet. Affordability is slowly improving through wage growth, but lower mortgage rates are needed.
Joseph Wang
Author, Central Banking 101 / ex-Senior Trader, Federal Reserve
27:52
Stock market is dangerous leveraged bubble.
Joseph calls the stock market an obvious huge bubble. He observes that many low-information investors are leveraged and believe things go up forever, which he views as dangerous. He allows equities could keep rising, but sees them as vulnerable; a decline would likely force Fed cuts and send a flight to safety into long bonds.
Refiners are trade of the year.
Max argues refiners are the trade of the year, outperforming semiconductors. Refining earnings are on fire because crack spreads are extremely wide. Refined-product capacity is shut behind the Strait of Hormuz, China is hoarding rather than exporting refined products, and there are no strategic refined-product stockpiles to cushion supply. Oil is back above $100, and diesel/sulfur stress persists. He does not think earnings have peaked; instead of a spike-and-collapse, he expects more of a plateau. He owns Marathon Petroleum and Valero.
MPC is best refiner, Hormuz holding.
Jack says Marathon Petroleum is the biggest and best refining company and a member of his Hormuz basket in his Farley Associated Research substack. He likes MPC’s strong shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, contrasting with weaker governance in shipping. He sees refining earnings as cyclical and thinks forward estimates are too high, but still holds MPC as part of the Hormuz/refining trade.
Farm commodities and fertilizer stay tight.
Jack highlights severe commodity imbalances from the Iran conflict. Diesel at $6 raises mining costs, and about half the world’s sulfur comes from the Strait of Hormuz; sulfur is used to process phosphate rock into phosphate fertilizer. If farmers skip phosphate application this year, they may need extra next year. Agricultural commodities, corn, and soybeans are already very hot, and he expects knock-on effects not yet fully seen.
Lam Research estimates are far too low.
Max has high conviction that Lam Research estimates are criminally too low. Lam just reported a bombshell quarter and guided to about $8.2B for the current quarter, but forecasts show only about $9.6B next year, roughly 17% growth, near its historical average. He expects a larger step-up in demand because logic fabs like TSMC and Intel, and especially memory producers such as SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, must expand capacity. He says he would be at $10.5B or even $11B, not $9.6B.
Higher short rates hurt AI neoclouds.
Jack argues the long end matters less for AI capex than the short end. Hyperscalers like Meta and Microsoft are not very sensitive to 10- or 30-year yields. The risk is for speculative borrowers like CoreWeave and private-credit neoclouds that rely on SOFR/overnight financing; higher short rates from Fed hikes could crimp the AI buildout for these names.
Small caps pressured by higher rates.
Jack thinks Fed hikes and higher rates will pressure small caps because they are the most indebted firms. Many investors have been bullish on small caps, but their balance sheets make them vulnerable to tighter financing conditions.
This Monetary Matters video, published September 16, 2026,
features Joseph Wang, Max Wiethe, Jack Farley
discussing 2-year Treasury notes, 30-year Treasury bonds, 30-year TIPS, XHB, SPY, CRAK, Crack spread, MPC, VLO, Phosphate fertilizer, DBA, CORN, SOYB, LRCX, CoreWeave, US small-cap stocks.
10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Joseph Wang,
Max Wiethe,
Jack Farley
· Tickers:
2-year Treasury notes,
30-year Treasury bonds,
30-year TIPS,
XHB,
SPY,
CRAK,
Crack spread,
MPC,
VLO,
Phosphate fertilizer,
DBA,
CORN,
SOYB,
LRCX,
CoreWeave,
US small-cap stocks
