XA XAU Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index Загрузка... : Бычьи и медвежьи мнения аналитиков

Gold is now seeing several sources of demand returning simultaneously: central bank buying (including China), ETF inflows after months of outflows, and more supportive US rate expectations. This gives the gold rally a stronger footing than before.

Gold is a crucial portfolio insurance asset that should hold a 5-20% allocation. After correcting from $5,600 to $4,000/oz, it now offers an attractive entry. Supportive factors: falling real interest rates, a weakening US dollar, declining global trust in US Treasuries, rising US federal debt/GDP, and central banks diversifying reserves into gold.

Gold has been consolidating between roughly 4,000 support and 4,200 resistance. Both bulls and bears lack decisive momentum. A break above 4,200 would suggest the market has absorbed dollar and yield headwinds and is starting a new advance; a breakdown below 4,000 would target 3,600-3,700.

Gold is in the process of a major bottom after a washout of tourist positions. Fiscal dominance, uncontrolled deficits, and the inability of the government to allow rates to rise without crashing the economy will lead to more money printing and a soft default. The dollar will keep losing value against gold over the long term. Rising rates in a country that cannot afford them are ultimately bullish for gold because central banks will be forced to ease aggressively.

The author directs a search for gold (XAU) in reply to a user unable to trade gold on variational, providing no directional view.

Gold will remain elevated in the medium term due to future debt debasement in the West and China's internal yuan devaluation policy, which drives strong Chinese demand for gold as an inflation hedge. The great debasement is still to come, supporting gold at levels like $4,000/oz minimum.

Золото сталкивается с краткосрочными препятствиями, поскольку длительное сохранение высоких процентных ставок снижает его привлекательность как актива, не приносящего доход; несмотря на то, что долгосрочные закупки центральными банками оказывают поддержку, в краткосрочной перспективе золото терпит удар.

Золото сохраняет потенциал роста. Деэскалация на Ближнем Востоке устраняет негативный фактор, однако более «ястребиная» позиция ФРС создает сложности, особенно для спроса на ETF. Тем не менее, объем покупок со стороны центральных банков структурно вырос и возобновится, если деэскалация продолжится, что поддержит восходящий тренд золота, даже если путь к нему будет более тернистым.

TRUMP: THIS WEEK WE'VE FORMALLY RECOGNIZED THE VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT, WILL FACILITATE THE SALE OF VENEZUELAN GOLD

TRUMP: THIS WEEK WE'VE FORMALLY RECOGNIZED THE VENEZUELAN GOVERNMENT, WILL FACILITATE THE SALE OF VENEZUELAN GOLD

China’s central bank bought more gold in February, extending its streak of purchasing to 16 months, as bullion climbs amid escalating Middle East tensions https://t.co/O8XrAMOlNU

Gold Stranded In Dubai Is Being Sold At Discounts Of Up To $30/Oz Below The London Benchmark As Middle East War Grounds Flights Out Of The UAE.

The Trump Administration is going to allow the sale of some Venezuelan gold in the US - Federal Register.

The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) BREAKING: Spot gold prices extend losses and fall below $5,100/oz despite elevated uncertainty and surging oil prices. https://t.co/3QpyTanX3U Tweet Link