Trump Hardens Stance on Iran, Nvidia Taps Wall Street for $500B | The Opening Trade 8/11/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 11, 2026 at 10:05 | 1:35:37 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Jane Foley — Rabobank Head of FX Strategy

Marianne Elliott — Fixed Income Fund Manager, Common Yak

Mark Cudmore — Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist

Benedict Lowe — European Equity Derivative Strategist, BNP Paribas Markets 360

Eamon — Commodity Strategist, ING

Anthony Stevens — Bloomberg Market Producer

Summary

The episode covers rising geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz as Trump demands compensation from Iran, keeping oil prices elevated and weighing on global bonds and currencies. Nvidia partners with private credit firms for a $500 billion AI infrastructure push, raising credit market concerns. Multiple guests provide trade ideas spanning FX, fixed income, equities, and commodities.

Oil prices rise on Trump's new demands for Iran, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining contested
European gas and diesel prices spike ahead of winter, adding to inflation worries
Nvidia partners with Apollo, Blackstone, and others for $500 billion AI infrastructure financing
Jane Foley (Rabobank) argues for a weaker euro, pound, and yen due to oil, taxes, and BOJ inaction
Marianne Elliott (Common Yak) is long inflation breakevens and favors Italy/Spain bonds over France
Mark Cudmore (Bloomberg MLIV) sees a very negative backdrop for US Treasuries through year-end
Benedict Lowe (BNP Paribas) is bullish European equities and especially European banks
Eamon (ING) remains constructive on aluminium and gold on supply tightness and diversifying demand

Ideas

Jane Foley Rabobank Head of FX Strategy 16:16

Euro bearish backdrop; no explicit short

Avoid EUR/USD: prolonged high oil hurts eurozone growth/inflation and leaves the euro unattractive; no explicit author short is stated.

Jane Foley Rabobank Head of FX Strategy 18:36

Sterling vulnerable; no explicit short

Avoid GBP/USD: weakening labor market and likely tax rises leave sterling vulnerable into autumn; no explicit short call is stated.

Jane Foley Rabobank Head of FX Strategy 19:23

Yen weakness without BOJ, fiscal action

The yen needs both faster BOJ rate hikes and credible fiscal reassurance on JGB supply to strengthen. Without those, further weakness is likely, with a test of 160 against the dollar probable in the near term.

Marianne Elliott Fixed Income Fund Manager, Common Yak 27:22

Food inflation shock underpriced, buy breakevens

A coming food supply shock—driven by poor harvests, El Niño, and disrupted Ukraine grain exports—will replace energy as the main inflation driver, preventing negative base effects. This is not priced into bond markets. The fund is already long inflation breakevens in the US and Europe.

Marianne Elliott Fixed Income Fund Manager, Common Yak 32:45

Buy Italy/Spain, short France bonds

French political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections will create volatility and risk premium in French bonds. In contrast, Italian and Spanish bonds offer attractive spreads and carry with lower volatility. The fund is short France and prefers Spain and Italy.

Marianne Elliott Fixed Income Fund Manager, Common Yak 32:45

Buy Italy/Spain, short France bonds

French political uncertainty ahead of the 2027 elections will create volatility and risk premium in French bonds. In contrast, Italian and Spanish bonds offer attractive spreads and carry with lower volatility. The fund is short France and prefers Spain and Italy.

Marianne Elliott Fixed Income Fund Manager, Common Yak 33:36

UK gilts vulnerable; no explicit short

Avoid UK gilts: inflation persistence, weak currency and twin-deficit risks make gilts vulnerable; no explicit short call is stated.

Anthony Stevens Bloomberg Market Producer 39:22

Riot pivots to AI, new growth driver

Riot Platforms (RIOT) has pivoted from Bitcoin mining to AI computing and has already seen results from this new vertical. An Anthropic contract potentially extending to 2048 could substantially boost revenues in multiples of the initial deal size.

Mark Cudmore Executive Editor, Bloomberg Live / Macro Strategist 43:44

US Treasuries bearish backdrop; no explicit short

Avoid IEF / US Treasuries: fiscal, inflation, policy-credibility and hyperscaler-debt pressures are negative for Treasuries; no explicit short call is stated.

Benedict Lowe European Equity Derivative Strategist, BNP Paribas Markets 360 50:50

European equities grind higher

European stocks are set for a grind higher, supported by improving macro surprises, strong earnings, and low-to-neutral positioning. He minimises upside premium costs by using call spreads rather than outright calls.

Benedict Lowe European Equity Derivative Strategist, BNP Paribas Markets 360 51:56

European banks rise on ECB hikes

European banks are a top sector pick for year-end. Rising PMIs, good earnings, and expectations of an ECB rate hike in September create a positive backdrop. Banks benefit from higher rates and have delivered strong performance.

Eamon Commodity Strategist, ING 78:02

Aluminium supply tight, prices supported

Aluminium supply remains constrained because lost Gulf production has not returned, and restarting smelters is technically difficult and slow. With the Strait of Hormuz still not fully open and high energy costs, prices are finding fundamental support.

Eamon Commodity Strategist, ING 83:50

Gold rally has stronger, diversified footing

Gold is now seeing several sources of demand returning simultaneously: central bank buying (including China), ETF inflows after months of outflows, and more supportive US rate expectations. This gives the gold rally a stronger footing than before.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 11, 2026, features Jane Foley, Marianne Elliott, Anthony Stevens, Mark Cudmore, Benedict Lowe, Eamon discussing EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, US Inflation Breakevens, EU Inflation Breakevens, Italian BTPs, Spanish Bonos, French OATs, UK 10-Year Gilt, RIOT, IEF, STOXX Europe 600, SX7E, JJATF, XAU. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jane Foley, Marianne Elliott, Anthony Stevens, Mark Cudmore, Benedict Lowe, Eamon · Tickers: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, US Inflation Breakevens, EU Inflation Breakevens, Italian BTPs, Spanish Bonos, French OATs, UK 10-Year Gilt, RIOT, IEF, STOXX Europe 600, SX7E, JJATF, XAU