DE DE Deere & Company Loading... : Bullish and Bearish Analyst Opinions

Cited as an analogy for agricultural infrastructure lock-in (corn ecosystem); no direct trade thesis made for DE specifically.

Deere earned ~$35/share in FY23, fell to <$19 in FY25, and FY26 estimates have been cut to ~$18 but are expected to trough in 2026 with recovery in 2027. Analyst Shlisky rates DE Buy, implying that the worst of the earnings cycle is priced in and future cash flows will improve as farmer incomes rebound. Buying Deere at the cyclical trough before fundamentals inflect offers a classic value trade with potential for multiple expansion and earnings growth. Prolonged low crop prices, higher input costs, or a global recession delaying the recovery; China/Europe demand shocks.

Deere on fire, higher ahead

Author describes a balanced core portfolio rebalanced in June 2026 that has outperformed the S&P 500, but the tweet is a retrospective performance update and general advice to stay balanced, not a fresh trade call.

Long these names as part of a balanced portfolio rebalanced on 6/15 to rotate out of tech into healthcare, financials, energy, and defensives, outperforming SPY by 4x.

The author provides a detailed intraday market commentary on sector rotation, volatility, and macro themes without stating any personal positions or forward calls, so all tickers are indexed as watch.

Author discloses an existing short position in DE, pairing it with a CAT short as a cyclical pair trade ahead of an anticipated 2027 economic slowdown or recession.

Short Deere into next year as author holds an existing short position, pairing it with a broader bearish thesis on industrial/construction equipment names facing unsustainable demand cycles analogous to 2021 bubble stocks.

Doosan plans to integrate Nvidia's physical AI technology into Bobcat construction, agriculture, and logistics machinery.

Long equipment finance, rental, and dealer companies as healthy credit, low used inventory, and strong lease conversions support equipment demand.

Deere hurt by rising input costs.

Short book commentary: DE barely hanging in the green; shorts require time and lots of patience (ongoing position commentary).

Speaker cited these companies as examples priced to perfection (e.g., CAT/DE at 30x earnings, GE at 45x, GS at 2.6x book), assuming optimal economic reacceleration. Market is complacent, not pricing downside risks; geopolitical tensions and energy cost inflation could slow the economy, hurting cyclical earnings. Overvalued with asymmetric downside risk if conditions worsen, offering poor risk-reward. Swift conflict resolution or economic reacceleration validating current multiples.

Speaker stated these cyclical companies were "priced to perfection" before the conflict, trading at high multiples (CAT, DE at 30x earnings, GE at 45x), assuming a best-case economic reacceleration. The market was not ready for anything less than a perfect scenario. The Iran war and its economic ripple effects (energy shock, higher costs, growth slowdown) represent a material negative deviation from that perfect scenario. These stocks are overvalued given the new, less optimal macro backdrop and face multiple compression and earnings risk. They are unattractive and should be avoided. A swift, seamless resolution to the conflict and a rapid return to pre-war energy prices and growth momentum.

Ram states, "Names like... Caterpillar, John Deere, that's a bubble. That whole category is a bubble." The industrials complex had "the highest relative strength" but has "rolled over." This bubble existed before the conflict, and the current torrent of negative macro information is causing it to crack. AVOID because these stocks are in a bubble that is now deflating amid a broader market correction and negative macro shock. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East and a surprise infrastructure spending bill that re-inflates the industrial sector bubble.

Speaker states John Deere's new combine costs over $1 million, while government relief for soybean farmers was only $30/acre and every commodity is currently unprofitable. Historically high equipment prices are colliding with a period of severe farm unprofitability and eroded farmer balance sheets, which will suppress demand for new capital equipment. The fundamental customer base (farmers) cannot afford major capital expenditures, creating significant demand headwinds for agricultural equipment manufacturers. Passage of a substantial farm bill or a rapid, sustained recovery in commodity prices that restores farmer profitability and confidence.

The speaker explicitly named John Deere, Caterpillar, and Case, stating his administration is working to "cut out massive amounts of nonsense" (environmental mandates) from tractors and trucks. He claims these mandates add $6-8k per machine, make tractors overly complex and unreliable, and do nothing for the environment. He directly asked the head of John Deere to lower tractor costs and threatened to "do a big number in those companies" if they don't pass savings to farmers. The administration's deregulatory push, framed as a top priority, aims to significantly reduce production costs and complexity for farm equipment manufacturers. The speaker is creating explicit public and political pressure for these cost savings to be translated into lower prices for end-users (farmers) rather than retained as manufacturer profit. WATCH due to high policy uncertainty and conflicting pressures. The thesis suggests potential margin compression for manufacturers if forced to cut prices, but also possible volume benefits from a more prosperous farm sector and simplified, cheaper-to-produce equipment. The direct Presidential pressure and threat of action create a material, but ambiguous, regulatory overhang. The administration may not follow through on its threats, or the regulatory changes may be less impactful or slower to implement than suggested. Manufacturers could successfully argue that savings are reinvested or offset by other costs. A change in administration could reverse the policy direction.

After success with Whirlpool short, opening short on John Deere DE - 'The Subprime Tractor: Deere's Shadow Bank Is About To Blow Up.'

Caterpillar and John Deere have P/E ratios of 30-35 times earnings, and industrials are broadly in a bubble. Bubbles eventually pop, and the market is on the right shoulder of the bubble, indicating overvaluation and impending correction. Avoid these stocks due to high valuations and the likelihood of a price decline as the bubble deflates. Sustained economic growth, infrastructure spending, or other factors that justify high multiples and delay a correction.

"The physical economy is the last place that AI reaches... Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence... Goldman's HALO basket has outperformed capital light names by 25 percentage points." The "HALO" trade thesis rests on safety. While software and services face existential disruption, physical industries (Construction, Agriculture, Transportation) are insulated. Capital is rotating into these tangible, heavy-asset sectors as a hedge against AI obsolescence. LONG the leaders of the physical economy (Caterpillar for construction, Deere for agriculture, iShares Transport for logistics). A broader economic recession would hurt cyclical heavy industries regardless of their AI immunity.

Bosa cites the "Halo Trade" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence), noting that capital is fleeing the "Knowledge Economy" for the "Physical Economy." She explicitly states sectors like "Construction, Agriculture, Transportation" have near-zero AI penetration. As AI uncertainty creates volatility in services and tech labor, investors are seeking safety in tangible industries where human labor cannot be digitized. Caterpillar (Construction), Deere (Ag), United Rentals (Equipment), and Union Pacific (Transport) are the blue-chip proxies for this "Physical Economy" safety trade. LONG. These sectors are insulated from the deflationary pressures of AI labor displacement. A broader economic recession would hurt cyclical industrials regardless of their AI immunity.

"An Nvidia powered farming machine uses AI vision and precision lasers to eliminate weeds... reduces the cost of spending on herbicides by 90%." This represents the expansion of AI from "Training Clusters" (Data Centers) to "Edge Inference" (Industrial Robotics). Nvidia chips are now essential in heavy machinery. John Deere (DE) is the logical industrial proxy for high-tech combines adopting this laser/vision tech to justify high equipment prices. Long NVDA (chip demand) and DE (industrial application/pricing power). High upfront hardware costs for farmers could slow adoption rates.

Richards explicitly promotes the "HALO" trade: "Hard Assets, Low Obsolescence." He cites specific examples: Concrete, Rebar, Sod, Aircraft, Maritime, Turbines, Cranes, and Engines. He argues the economy is fine, but the *software* sector is broken. Capital will flow away from intangible, high-leverage tech into tangible industrial assets that are critical for infrastructure and have high recovery values in default scenarios. LONG. Buy the industrial and material base of the economy. Global recession reduces demand for heavy machinery and construction materials.

The speaker notes President Trump is "very transactional" and predicts he will come to Beijing looking for deals, specifically citing a "large Boeing order" and "increased purchase of ag products." If China wants to stabilize relations and "tariff proof" its economy, purchasing high-ticket US goods is the standard diplomatic lever. A confirmed order boosts Boeing's backlog, while agricultural purchases directly benefit the US ag-complex (Deere for equipment, ADM for grain processing). LONG ahead of the late March Trump visit to capture the "deal announcement" pop. Trump cancels the trip or negotiations break down due to the Iran/Venezuela geopolitical friction.

Hay highlights that "boring" value stocks like Walmart, Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, and Deere are trading at 30-40x earnings or high price-to-sales ratios. Investors fleeing tech volatility have crowded into these "safe" names, paradoxically turning them into the most overvalued sector of the market. They are priced for perfection in a slowing economy. SHORT or AVOID these specific "expensive value" names. Continued "flight to safety" flows keeping valuations elevated regardless of fundamentals.

Cramer notes that February "demolished software" and "minimized hardware" but the winners were "prosaic companies with popular brands" and "earthmovers." In a month of indecision, inflation, and rate fears, capital is fleeing high-beta tech and hiding in tangible, defensive value stocks and industrials. LONG. These are the current safe havens in a volatile market. A sudden return to "risk-on" sentiment could see these lag behind tech.

February winners were "prosaic companies" with popular brands and earth movers. In a month where software and hardware were demolished, capital hid in these defensive names. This trend is the current market regime. Winners/Holds. Rotation back into risk-on tech.

"To the extent you're helping... the American car industry, it's at the detriment of exporters like aerospace or farm products." Casey argues that tariffs hurt exporters. Therefore, the Supreme Court striking down these tariffs removes the headwind for major US exporters. Aerospace and Agriculture are explicitly named as the victims of the previous tariff regime. LONG Exporters (Boeing for Aerospace, Deere for Farm Products) as trade tensions ease. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries remaining in place despite US court rulings.

"Agriculture states... Chuck Grassley, for example, who are seeing their own constituents just get slammed. We're working on our second farmers bailout." While bailouts provide a temporary floor, the underlying business for US agriculture is broken due to trade wars and lost export markets. "Slammed" constituents implies severe earnings pressure for farmers and equipment suppliers. Avoid or Short the Agriculture complex as trade barriers harden. The "second farmers bailout" could be larger than expected, temporarily boosting sentiment in the sector.

Jefferies has issued an "Underperform" rating on Deere, signaling an expectation for the stock to lag the broader market or its sector.