Five Weeks of Losses: Where Do Markets Go From Here?
Speakers
Austin Campbell -- Host, Zero Knowledge Consulting
— Chopping Block co-host
Ram Ahluwalia -- Co-host, Lumida
— Lumida CEO
Chris Perkins -- Co-host, CoinFund
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- The hosts analyze a deteriorating macro environment driven by geopolitical conflict with Iran, which is disrupting oil supply and driving prices (Brent crude above $116) and bond yields (10-year at 4.48%) higher.
- Ram Ahluwalia is bearish on risk assets, arguing the conflict has no clear off-ramp, is highly inflationary, and will last longer than markets expect (beyond the initial 4-5 week expectation). He sees potential for a ~15% correction in the S&P 500.
- Chris Perkins acknowledges near-term volatility but is medium/long-term bullish, particularly on crypto. He argues the Strait of Hormuz must be secured for the global economy, and once settled, it will create a strong cyclical buying opportunity, with Bitcoin inevitably catching up to gold's narrative.
- Austin Campbell posits that the blockchain infrastructure for most financial assets in 30 years likely doesn't exist yet, highlighting a fundamental trillemma between permissionless networks, real-world assets, and complex smart contracts.
- A debate emerges on blockchain design: Chris Perkins sees value in decentralized, censorship-resistant layers like Ethereum for sovereign neutrality, while Austin Campbell argues their complexity and co-mingling of assets (e.g., in DeFi pools) make them incompatible with real-world asset regulations (freeze & seize).
- Ram Ahluwalia notes crypto (Bitcoin) has held up relatively well, attributing it largely to spot ETF inflows, which he characterizes as not a "healthy bid" for the underlying fundamentals of the asset class.
- On equities, Ram identifies a "flight to fundamentals," finding value in pockets of large-cap tech (Microsoft, Meta) but sees a bubble in the industrials complex and overvaluation in names like Tesla and Netflix.
- The consensus is that the U.S. fiscal trajectory (incremental $200B/month deficit spending) is a core, unaddressed problem exacerbating financial conditions.
Speakers
Austin Campbell -- Host, Zero Knowledge Consulting
— Chopping Block co-host
Ram Ahluwalia -- Co-host, Lumida
— Lumida CEO
Chris Perkins -- Co-host, CoinFund
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- The Iran conflict is causing significant market stress, with oil (Brent) surging above $116/barrel, disrupting global supply chains, and creating a $2 trillion annual inflationary spend for the US.
- The bond market is effectively restraining US foreign policy; the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.48%, pressuring mortgages and assets, with further upside risk from war spending and oil-driven inflation.
- A clear divergence exists on the conflict's resolution: Chris Perkins believes there's "no turning back" and a military solution to secure the Strait of Hormuz is inevitable, while Ram Ahluwalia sees a prolonged, poorly executed conflict with no clear off-ramp, extending beyond market expectations.
- Equities are under severe pressure: S&P 500 had its worst month in a year and fifth straight weekly decline, with a potential 15% correction down to ~4620. The sell-off is driven by degrossing, a flight to fundamentals, and sector-specific bubbles popping.
- Crypto (Bitcoin) has shown relative resilience, holding near $66k, attributed by Ram to STRC-driven inflows (not a "healthy bid") and by Chris to its inherent "trustless, permissionless" value and a strong future once macro clouds lift.
- A major philosophical brawl is underway between private/permissioned chains (Canton Network) and public chains (Ethereum, Solana) over institutional readiness, with debates centering on ZK-proof security, MEV, and suitability for real-world assets under existing legal frameworks.
- A core debate on blockchain design: Austin Campbell argues that decentralized ledgers with real-world assets and complex smart contracts (DeFi) are incompatible due to legal seizure risks creating systemic fragility, while Chris Perkins maintains a censorship-resistant base layer is viable if behaviors, not tech, are regulated.
- Ram Ahluwalia identifies specific pockets of value (Berkshire Hathaway, Microsoft, Meta) amid the carnage but warns against broad "buy the dip" mentality, highlighting that bubbles in industrial stocks (Caterpillar, John Deere) are now cracking.
- The "Trump put" is a noted market narrative, but its efficacy is questioned as the administration appears to be improvising strategy, losing market trust, and facing a complex asymmetric warfare challenge that kinetics alone cannot solve.
- The regulatory environment for crypto is seen as favorable (e.g., potential CLARITY Act), driving institutional interest, but the ultimate adoption path for blockchain in finance remains contested between Wall Street's value-capture model and public chain sovereignty.
Trade Ideas
The discussion centers on oil (Brent) spiking above $116/barrel due to the Iran conflict and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a massive portion of global crude exports. The price is directly tied to geopolitical escalation and the potential for supply disruption. Both bearish (Ram) and bullish (Chris) speakers agree oil prices are high and a critical variable, with Chris noting the strait *must* be secured and Ram noting high oil is inflationary and bad for assets. WATCH because oil is the central asset driving macro instability, inflation, and market sentiment. Its price path is inextricably linked to the evolution of the Iran conflict, which remains highly uncertain. A sudden, unexpected diplomatic resolution that opens the strait and crashes the price, or a catastrophic escalation that leads to direct supply destruction.
Chris states, "I'm a crypto guy. I think it's... going to be a very very good cyclical buying opportunity... medium long-term bullish as ever... you're going to see Bitcoin starting to catch up to the gold narrative. It's inevitable." While acknowledging short-term volatility from the Iran conflict, he believes the crisis will eventually be resolved. The long-term thesis is that the world is becoming more "trustless, permissionless," a trend where crypto thrives, and Bitcoin will inevitably capture a safe-haven narrative similar to gold. LONG as a medium-to-long term cyclical buying opportunity, predicated on crypto's fundamental resilience and Bitcoin's eventual convergence with the gold narrative once geopolitical tensions ease. The Iran conflict spirals into a full-scale global recession, crushing all risk assets and overwhelming any crypto-specific narratives.
Ram stated the S&P could see a downside to ~4,200, a ~15% correction, and that the backdrop is "very toxic for risk assets." He connects several negative, uncontrolled factors: rising oil prices (inflationary), rising bond yields (tightening financial conditions), and a conflict with no clear de-escalation path. This leads to institutional and retail deleveraging. The confluence of inflationary war dynamics and stretched valuations creates strong downward pressure on the broad equity index. A swift and credible resolution to the Iran conflict that lowers oil prices and restores market confidence.
Ram states, "Names like... Caterpillar, John Deere, that's a bubble. That whole category is a bubble." The industrials complex had "the highest relative strength" but has "rolled over." This bubble existed before the conflict, and the current torrent of negative macro information is causing it to crack. AVOID because these stocks are in a bubble that is now deflating amid a broader market correction and negative macro shock. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East and a surprise infrastructure spending bill that re-inflates the industrial sector bubble.
Ram explicitly states, "I picked up Berkshire Hathaway last Friday. It's got a price of tangible book of 1.3. I picked up Microsoft. I picked up Meta at 17 and a half Ford PE." In a toxic market for risk assets, there is a "flight to safety to US assets" and a "flight to fundamentals." He is selectively buying large-cap tech names that now offer value after the sell-off, while avoiding others he deems expensive (Netflix, Tesla). LONG because these are high-quality US assets becoming attractively valued during a broad market deleveraging, representing pockets of safety and fundamental value. A prolonged, severe recession or further escalation in the Middle East that crushes all corporate earnings, not just valuation multiples.
Ram identifies "the industrials complex" as a category that had led the market but has now rolled over, explicitly calling "Caterpillar, John Deere" a bubble. This sector was overvalued ("a bubble") during the prior "Goldilocks" market. The current negative macro shock (war, inflation, higher rates) is popping that bubble, making the entire category vulnerable. AVOID the broad industrials sector because it is experiencing a deflation of a pre-existing valuation bubble amid a deteriorating macro backdrop that is particularly harmful to cyclical industries. A swift end to the Iran conflict coupled with aggressive fiscal stimulus aimed at infrastructure, which could reinvigorate the sector.
Up Next
This Unchained (Chopping Block) video, published March 31, 2026, features Chris Perkins, Ram Ahluwalia discussing WTI, BTC, SPY, CAT, DE, META, MSFT, BRK, XLI. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Chris Perkins, Ram Ahluwalia · Tickers: WTI, BTC, SPY, CAT, DE, META, MSFT, BRK, XLI