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21:35
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
1h
DKNG 1ST
▾
MED
DraftKings poised for prediction market growth.
Prediction markets represent a massive total addressable market, north of $1 trillion in volume by 2030, with enough space for multiple players. DraftKings is building its own full-stack exchange ecosystem separate from dominant player Kalshi, positioning it to capture growth. NFL week one, featuring high-profile games in non-sports-betting states like California and Texas, provides a near-term catalyst for prediction market volumes, and over time, sportsbooks like DraftKings could benefit from users acquired in these states converting to sports betting when regulations change.
DKNG LONG
MED
21:10
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
1h
AIQ 1ST
▾
MED
Infrastructure wins as AI models commoditize
Near-term headwinds from top AI spenders (top 1% of companies) cutting AI bills may cause a speed bump, but semiconductor stocks are down a lot and he's starting to wade into infrastructure names, expecting an attractive entry for long-term despite them not yet being oversold.
AIQ LONG
MED
20:57
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
1h
WTI
DG 1ST
PSKY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Strait of Hormuz closed, oil disrupted.
The Strait of Hormuz is essentially closed, with tankers being targeted and traffic slowed to a halt. This chokepoint normally handles a fifth of global oil supply, so the disruption supports higher oil prices.
WTI LONG
High-income consumers boost dollar store growth.
Higher-income consumers are becoming more discerning and looking for ways to save money, driving dollar store growth. This trade-down is a direct result of higher gas prices squeezing wallets.
DG LONG
Deal delay costly due to ticking fee.
A court has temporarily halted the Paramount Skydance combination with Warner Bros. Discovery over antitrust concerns. Paramount agreed to pay a ticking fee if the deal closes after September 30, making any delay costly for the company.
PSKY AVOID
HIGH
20:26
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
2h
IWM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Small caps will outperform for years.
Small-cap stocks are in a sweet spot that will last for a period of time. Earnings have turned positive and are expected to grow strongly, potentially exceeding large-cap earnings by late 2025 into 2027. Multiple tailwinds are driving this: the Federal Reserve has eased, lowering borrowing costs; the AI buildout is boosting small-cap companies through both productivity gains and hard-asset demand (e.g., data center components, air conditioning); reshoring trends continue to lift earnings; deregulation is especially powerful for smaller firms; and the tax act allowing 100% depreciation on capex and R&D is a powerful tailwind. Historically, when small caps start to outperform after a decade of large-cap dominance, they tend to outperform for the next decade. Moreover, flows into small-cap ETFs remain negative, meaning skepticism is still high and there is more upside as the 'show me' narrative shifts to sustained earnings delivery.
IWM LONG
HIGH
20:23
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
2h
SPY
IGV 1ST
XLU 1ST
XLV 1ST
VNQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Watch S&P 500 for breakdown below 7340
The S&P 500 is in a coiled consolidation phase similar to the Nasdaq 100. If it breaks below equivalent support at 7340, defined by the 50-day moving average and the cloud model, that would likely drag everything down and signal the need to hedge, especially high-beta positions. The level is a critical watch point.
SPY WATCH
Software sector rotating higher with breakouts
Rotation out of semiconductors and into software has been underway and continues. There are still breakouts occurring in the software sector, indicating relative strength and ongoing upside momentum.
IGV LONG
Defensive sectors have strong technical setups
Defensive sectors such as health care, REITs, and utilities offer safety and exhibit really good technical setups. Even if the S&P 500 breaks down, these areas can provide a haven from a bottom-up perspective.
XLU LONG
XLV LONG
VNQ LONG
Nasdaq 100 breakdown risks further downside
The Nasdaq 100 index has broken short-term support defined by the 50-day moving average, which is rolling over. The next support is well below, 8-9% lower. The index has been coiled in a consolidation phase, and a downside resolution can spark a big pickup in volatility. This increases near-term downside risk.
QQQ AVOID
HIGH
20:22
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
2h
BMY 1ST
NVDA
BA 1ST
LMT
UBER
▾
HIGH
AI healthcare efficiency lifts BMY, NVDA
Bristol Myers Squibb purchasing Nvidia's AI computing system illustrates the growing adoption of AI in healthcare, which improves efficiency and speeds drug development. More healthcare companies are expected to follow, making this a powerful theme for both Bristol Myers and Nvidia.
BMY LONG
NVDA LONG
Boeing momentum fading, avoid for now
Boeing's momentum signal has faded to yellow/red; the position was taken purely on momentum and currently lacks that momentum, so the stock is not a buy and may remain weak unless earnings restart it.
BA AVOID
Defense stocks need catalyst, caution LMT
Lockheed Martin and other defense stocks face fundamental budget concerns and lack a near-term catalyst; momentum hasn't built since the position was added, warranting caution until after the midterm elections possibly provide budget clarity.
LMT WATCH
Uber pullback interesting, watching for re-entry
Uber's recent German acquisition and super-app ambitions, combined with a pullback from the 90s to the 60s, make the stock interesting again; the firm is watching for cash-flow earnings growth and may re-enter after trimming near the highs.
UBER WATCH
Schwab earnings catalyst for new highs
Charles Schwab is expected to benefit from strong retail trading engagement in its upcoming earnings, which should drive net interest margin and serve as the catalyst to push the stock above its all-time high (~107.5) toward 110-115.
SCHW LONG
HIGH
20:21
Jul 20
Jul 20
20:04
Jul 20
Jul 20
20:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
Wealthion
2h
COPPER 1ST
SILVER 1ST
SLX 1ST
▾
MED
AI infrastructure boosts industrial metals demand.
The massive buildout of AI infrastructure, robotics, and data centers will drive growing demand for industrial metals, including copper, silver, and steel.
COPPER LONG
SILVER LONG
SLX LONG
MED
19:59
Jul 20
Jul 20
SOXX 1ST
XLK 1ST
EWY
SPY 1ST
MTUM 1ST
▾
HIGH
Tech ETF dip buying signals rebound.
Record $20 billion inflows into tech ETFs in July, heavy dip buying in semiconductors (SOXX) and South Korea (EWY) despite recent selloff, indicating traders expect a rebound.
SOXX LONG
XLK LONG
EWY LONG
Bull market likely to extend.
Earnings growth is outpacing stock gains, P/E at 20.5 is not extreme, and historically bull markets extend to 4-7 years after the three-year mark; current worries are overblown.
SPY LONG
Momentum ETF shifting to new leaders.
Momentum factor ETF is rotating into health care, telecom, and discretionary, reducing meme-stock exposure, and works well paired with equal-weight for uncorrelated outperformance.
MTUM LONG
Equal-weight ETF diversifies and outperforms.
Equal-weight S&P 500 ETF has -0.5 correlation with momentum, is beating the market, and owns industrials and real estate that benefit from AI buildout ('selling the shovels').
RSP LONG
Small caps broadly outperforming large caps.
Small-cap stocks are outperforming large caps in all 11 GICS sectors, indicating a genuine size-based factor rotation; two-thirds of issues are above 200-day moving averages, and quality matters as shorted stocks lag.
IWM LONG
Small/mid caps poised for earnings acceleration.
Small and mid-cap stocks trade at a 25-35% discount to large caps, earnings estimates are inflecting after 10 quarters of declines, and consensus expects acceleration; active ETF TMSL uses bottom-up research to capture these gains.
TMSL LONG
Bonds offer attractive yields and diversification.
Bonds offer high starting yields (~5%) as a high-quality defensive diversifier; the opportunity cost of cash is rising as the Fed may lower rates, and bonds historically provide portfolio protection.
BND LONG
HIGH
18:53
Jul 20
Jul 20
18:45
Jul 20
Jul 20
ETH
SOL 1ST
NEAR 1ST
RE token
Altcoin Market
▾
HIGH
ETH is second internet-native store of value
Ethereum is a store of value similar to Bitcoin, with seizure resistance, ease of transfer, global liquid market, and programmability. It hosts the majority of stablecoin volume and will be the foundation for the global financial system in a non-sovereign space. As an internet-native store of value, ETH benefits from network effects and market fragmentation, becoming a second major store of value.
ETH LONG
Solana undervalued, strong consumer ecosystem
Solana has built a high-throughput, low-cost chain with a robust ecosystem including stablecoins, exchange support, Phantom wallet, and top developer talent. It is positioned as the retail and consumer ecosystem, with applications like Hyperliquid generating massive profits. The bear market undervalues its fundamentals, and its builder community remains strong, indicating long-term value creation.
SOL LONG
Near ahead of curve, agentic ready
Near has exceptional technical talent (co-founder authored the Transformer paper), zero downtime in five years, and is ahead of its time with chain abstraction via intents and a confidential compute layer. It is designed for an agentic economy and has traction from products like Near Intents and Venice. Its infrastructure is poised for the next wave of adoption when agents and AI dominate.
NEAR LONG
RE pioneering on-chain reinsurance platform
RE is building a platform that brings real-world assets on-chain in a compliant way, similar to Lloyds of London but for on-chain capital markets. By tokenizing reinsurance, it eliminates operational inefficiencies in fintech (compliance, capital markets middlemen) and passes lower rates to end users. With over $100M in smart contracts, it demonstrates that off-boarding stablecoins to real-world yield is viable, opening a massive market for global users seeking dollar-based yield.
RE token LONG
Tech finally works, altcoins will surge
The crypto technology vision from 2017 is now becoming reality, with institutional adoption silently accelerating. As with every technology cycle, after the initial hype and correction, true utility emerges around years 8–10. Altcoins will experience a massive re-rating as the market realizes that tokenization, stablecoin capital markets, and layer-1 ecosystems actually work, leading to a multi-trillion dollar market by ~2027–2028.
Altcoin Market LONG
HIGH
18:43
Jul 20
Jul 20
BA
EADSY FLIP
QQQ 1ST
SMH 1ST
IWM 1ST
▾
MED
Boeing turnaround with strong backlog.
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping up production across product lines, with very strong markets and backlog. The company is focusing on execution and improving cash flow, positioning it to launch the next-generation jet when financially ready in a few years.
BA LONG
Airbus strong demand and production ramp.
Airbus is seeing very strong demand for aircraft, with a backlog of more than 9,200 planes and continuing fresh orders. High oil prices increase demand for fuel-efficient aircraft, and Airbus is progressing well on production rate increases.
EADSY LONG
Take profits on overhyped AI tech.
Chinese AI models threaten to undercut pricing, creating uncertainty about return on AI spending. Recommending clients keep to index weight and take profits in large-cap tech and AI chipmakers, not overweighting.
QQQ AVOID
SMH AVOID
Small caps benefit from market broadening.
Small caps are having one of their best years since 2003 with a rotation from large-cap tech underway. Every portfolio should have small-cap exposure as a sign of healthy risk appetite and market broadening.
IWM LONG
ADI spinoff unlocks security growth potential.
The ADI spinoff unlocks intrinsic value as a pure-play distribution business. Commercial security demand is driven by continuous technology replacement cycles, independent of residential housing or construction trends.
ADI LONG
Banks poised for near-term strength.
Cyclical areas of the economy such as financials, health care, and industrials are great places to invest, offering diversification away from the crowded tech trade. The market is broadening into these sectors.
XLF LONG
Favor cyclical sectors over crowded tech.
Cyclical areas of the economy such as financials, health care, and industrials are great places to invest, offering diversification away from the crowded tech trade. The market is broadening into these sectors.
XLI LONG
XLV LONG
Gold's secular bull trend intact.
Gold's secular bull trend is intact, driven by central bank buying, debasement and de-dollarization themes. The recent correction is healthy, and gold should benefit from any U.S. economic slowdown and weaker dollar.
GLD LONG
Silver may outperform if dollar weakens.
If the U.S. economy slows and the dollar weakens, silver historically has better correlation to a weaker dollar and could outperform gold in that scenario.
SLV WATCH
MED
18:39
Jul 20
Jul 20
LIT
▾
MED
All value accrues to Lighter token.
Lighter structured itself as a USC corp with no dual foundation; it committed to never raising equity again after the pre-token round. All future value accrues to the token, meaning any growth or revenue benefits token holders exclusively. The team and remaining investors are fully aligned on the token model.
LIT LONG
MED
18:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
CoinDesk
4h
SMH 1ST
BTC 1ST
HUT 1ST
ETH 1ST
▾
HIGH
Chip margins pressured by Chinese competition.
A Chinese AI model from Moonshot AI triggered a semiconductor selloff because the model shows price competition, meaning AI will cost less, squeezing future margins for chip companies that invested heavily in capex. Profit-taking will concentrate in memory and chip stocks as people exit levered positions.
SMH AVOID
Bitcoin cheap, Clarity Act catalyst to $100K.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at distressed prices while institutional adoption, supportive regulation, and strong underlying fundamentals continue. Retail investors should use this time to accumulate positions, as the longtail opportunity remains strong.
BTC LONG
Crypto miners pivoting to AI have upside.
Crypto mining companies that are pivoting into AI, like Hut 8 which just signed a 15-year data center lease, have significant upside potential because combining blockchain with AI creates 24/7 efficient markets.
HUT LONG
Buy Bitcoin and Ethereum on distress.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading at distressed prices while institutional adoption, supportive regulation, and strong underlying fundamentals continue. Retail investors should use this time to accumulate positions, as the longtail opportunity remains strong.
ETH LONG
HIGH
17:47
Jul 20
Jul 20
Thread Guy
4h
NVDA
PUMP
ZEC
BTC
▾
HIGH
Infinite AI compute demand supports Nvidia
China's Kimi K3 model launch and subsequent GPU capacity shortages confirm insatiable demand for AI compute, ensuring capex spend on GPU providers and neocloud will remain hyper-accelerated indefinitely, directly benefiting Nvidia.
NVDA LONG
Pump.fun volumes high, token undervalued
Pump.fun's weekly DEX volumes and fee generation have remained extremely strong even as the PUMP token dropped 80%, showing a sticky, dedicated memecoin trader base that isn't going away; the token appears deeply undervalued relative to these fundamentals, and the large unlock in July was absorbed with a price increase, suggesting further unlocks may not be bearish.
PUMP LONG
Zcash has dedicated buyers, poised for mania
Zcash has cultivated a dedicated pocket of influential crypto-native buyers (Naval, Balaji, etc.) who will continue to support and discuss the coin regardless of broader market conditions, giving it an asymmetric advantage if altcoin mania returns.
ZEC LONG
Bitcoin benefits from rotation out of stocks
Bitcoin looks strong and is positioned to benefit from a rotation out of equities if stock market gains become muted, as investors seek volatility and alternative assets like crypto.
BTC LONG
HIGH
17:42
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
4h
AMC 1ST
▾
HIGH
AMC thriving, record quarter, no debt worries.
AMC reported the strongest quarter in its 106-year history with record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, $778 million cash, and no significant debt maturities before 2029. The movie theater business is thriving, driven by blockbusters like The Odyssey ($124M opening) and diverse studio slates. The company has survived COVID and strikes and is now focused on thriving, not just survival.
AMC LONG
HIGH
17:21
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
5h
XLK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Technology leads on AI capex cycle.
Technology is still the easiest sector with the most opportunity to outperform, driven by strong earnings from AI-related companies and the AI ecosystem. Hyperscaler capex is very strong and feeds into multiple layers of the AI stack, including models, applications, memory, energy, and industrials, with AI requiring significant energy and industrial inputs.
XLK LONG
HIGH
16:34
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
6h
WTI 1ST
CRAK 1ST
UGA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Oil could hit triple digits soon
Oil market is still short and complacent despite recent price rises; physical crude is edging higher and crude oil prices could go to triple digits, while diesel and gasoline prices are expected to remain much much higher.
WTI LONG
CRAK LONG
UGA LONG
HIGH
16:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
6h
GOOGL FLIP
▾
MED
Organizational complexity undermines DeepMind's speed.
Google DeepMind's bigger bottleneck is organizational—multiple layers of approval and too many decision makers slow down launches, leaving Google technically competitive but often beaten to market, which poses a risk to its AI competitiveness.
GOOGL AVOID
MED
16:04
Jul 20
Jul 20
ETH 1ST
LIT
▾
HIGH
Ethereum is DeFi's secure clearing house.
Ethereum is the most secure, stable ledger for DeFi, effectively serving as the on-chain clearing house; it has operated for 10 years with no hiccups and is critical to Lighter's architecture; moving off Ethereum is not a top-100 priority, reflecting high confidence in its continued dominance.
ETH LONG
All value accrues to Lighter token.
Lighter has a unique token-centric structure where all value accrues to the token, not equity, with the team fully committed and no further equity rounds planned. The exchange is technically superior to competitors like Hyperliquid across cost, latency, verifiability, and security, uses custom ZK circuits to slash compute costs to 1%, has high-profile partnerships (Robinhood, Telegram wallet), and is launching on-chain options in Q3, positioning it to capture both retail and institutional flow.
LIT LONG
HIGH
15:51
Jul 20
Jul 20
CNBC
6h
SMH 1ST
▾
MED
China AI fears overblown, buy hardware stocks
The recent sell-off in hardware stocks is a profit-taking rotation, not a fundamental change from Chinese AI competition. Corporate America will not adopt Chinese AI models for critical data due to trust, security, and impending regulation. Frontier models will continue to lead, and hardware demand remains strong.
SMH LONG
MED
15:51
Jul 20
Jul 20
15:36
Jul 20
Jul 20
Thread Guy
7h
BTC
ZEC
PUMP
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin ready to rally higher
Bitcoin looks strong, holding up well despite broader market weakness, and appears ready to move back to the $64k-$67k level. Crypto overall is looking good.
BTC LONG
Zcash has loyal buyer base, will rise
Zcash, like Pump Fun, has a pocket of diehard supporters and buyers who will bid it regardless of broader market conditions. If crypto sentiment improves and mania returns, Zcash will benefit strongly.
ZEC LONG
Pump Fun undervalued despite massive fees
Pump Fun token is deeply undervalued. Its DEX volume and fee generation are extremely high and growing, while market cap has fallen significantly. The narrative that meme coin trading is dead is violated by actual on-chain activity. The diehard user base ensures continued volume, and the recent token unlock was absorbed without a price crash, indicating strong demand.
PUMP LONG
HIGH
15:25
Jul 20
Jul 20
15:23
Jul 20
Jul 20
XLY FLIP
SPY
LQD 1ST
VGK 1ST
XLK
▾
HIGH
Consumer resilience, pain trade for underweights.
Upgraded consumer discretionary from underweight. Bank earnings show broad consumer resilience, negative sentiment is rampant, and the pain trade is setting up for those who are underweight the sector.
XLY LONG
S&P 500 path to 8150.
Sees a path higher for US equities with an S&P 500 12-month target of 8150, supported by a resilient consumer. Does not expect a linear path but believes the consumer will help drive the market higher.
SPY LONG
Attractive yields, strong demand in credit.
Investment grade corporate bonds are attractive. Yields north of 5.2% are drawing 12 consecutive weeks of inflows. Supply is lumpy but deals are multiple times oversubscribed, and the overall exposure to AI capex in the index remains manageable.
LQD LONG
Europe equities benefitting from own rebuilding.
Europe offers a hedge against a potential high-correlation accident in US AI trades. Europe is building out its own AI and energy infrastructure, and Trump’s actions have forced countries to do more themselves, creating opportunities.
VGK LONG
Tech selloff is technical, fundamentals solid.
Upgraded US technology sector after selloff, as the decline was driven by profit-taking and momentum unwind rather than fundamentals. Software valuations are historically low, creating an opportunity to step into both semis and software.
XLK LONG
Grid build necessary, sector attractive.
US electricity and grid infrastructure needs to be built out regardless of how AI spending evolves. The sector has sold off and presents a bullish opportunity as grid investment is non-discretionary.
XLU LONG
Semis face risk from Chinese competition.
Growing risk that China will flood global markets with cheap compute, similar to the 2000s manufacturing shock. This could slow US AI buildout, hurting semiconductor demand and challenging the long-term outlook for picks-and-shovels AI plays.
SOC WATCH
Overweight market neutral amid high variance.
High macro and geopolitical variance demands active management. Market neutral strategies are especially valuable now because they provide uncorrelated return streams that can cut through the noise, and should be overweighted in portfolios.
Market Neutral Strategy LONG
AI spending driving revenue growth.
Alphabet is well-positioned to deliver strong earnings driven by AI. Cloud revenue growth is accelerating, backlog is growing, and search revenue benefits from Gemini. The company's compute, intelligence, and energy assets are strategic, and estimates have been raised.
GOOG LONG
HIGH
15:16
Jul 20
Jul 20
NOW
OWL 1ST
ARCC
FSK 1ST
BX 1ST
▾
MED
Short ServiceNow and Adobe on AI disruption
AI frontier models will disrupt many enterprise software companies, whose contracts will roll off and revenue growth assumptions will fail. Public software names are better than private equity holdings but are still overvalued and will fall further. Nemeth explicitly states he is bearish on ServiceNow and Adobe.
NOW AVOID
ADBE AVOID
Short Ares, Blackstone; long Blue Owl
Among publicly traded alternative asset managers, Ares Management has the biggest gap between its premium brand and reality. Blackstone is overrated because its entire business revolves around marketing rather than investment skill. Blue Owl Capital is the most underrated; despite bad public relations, its underwriting quality is stronger than the market believes.
OWL LONG
BX SHORT
ARES AVOID
Short ARCC, long FSK on discount gap
Ares Capital (ARCC) is overvalued relative to FS KKR Capital (FSK). Both BDCs hold around 60% in software loans, but ARCC has more subordinated debt and trades at a tiny discount to NAV while FSK trades at a 50% discount. The market's professional preference for ARCC is unwarranted, making ARCC a crowded long and FSK a deep-value opportunity.
ARCC AVOID
FSK LONG
MED
14:42
Jul 20
Jul 20
AIR.PA
▾
HIGH
Massive backlog and production ramp support Airbus.
Airbus sees very strong demand for its commercial aircraft, backed by a backlog of over 9,200 planes. Production is ramping up, with a 15% increase in the first half, on track toward rate 75 on the A320 family and around 870 deliveries in 2026. High oil prices further boost demand for fuel-efficient aircraft. The company has high visibility and will present aggressive delivery targets at its investor day.
AIR.PA WATCH
HIGH
14:40
Jul 20
Jul 20
14:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
SPY FLIP
Equal-weight US equities
Foreign developed equities
EEM 1ST
SYLD
▾
HIGH
Avoid US large-cap, extremely overvalued.
US large-cap stocks are extremely overvalued, with a CAPE ratio of 42 and dividend yield of 1%. Historically, no market ending a year at a CAPE of 40 has delivered above-average returns over the next decade. He expects poor returns (low single digits) over the next 5-7 years, making US large-cap market-cap-weight stocks unattractive.
SPY AVOID
Equal-weight will stomp cap-weight.
Equal-weighted US equities will significantly outperform cap-weighted indices over the next decade because cap-weighting's Achilles heel is valuation, and current extreme valuations make an equal-weight approach superior.
Equal-weight US equities LONG
Foreign developed stocks cheap, poised to rise.
Foreign developed equities are cheap, trading at low-teen valuations relative to the expensive US market. They are under-owned, performance is strong and accelerating, and FOMO is starting to build. Investors should allocate significantly to this asset class.
Foreign developed equities LONG
Emerging markets undervalued, major upside ahead.
Emerging market equities are deeply undervalued, massively under-owned by US investors despite representing over half of world GDP, and have been performing exceptionally. A FOMO-driven reallocation could push them much higher.
EEM LONG
Use shareholder yield strategy to avoid value traps.
A quantitative shareholder yield strategy—buying companies with high combined buybacks, dividends, and debt reduction, and sorting by momentum to avoid value traps—historically adds about 1% per year and has delivered exceptional results across US, foreign developed, and emerging markets.
SYLD LONG
FYLD LONG
EYLD LONG
Rotate into US small-cap value.
US small-cap value stocks are having an excellent year as value rotates within the US, and breaking the market-cap tilt by moving down in size and toward value offers attractive opportunities with low valuations (P/E of 10).
US small-cap value equities LONG
Allocate heavily to trend following strategies.
Trend following and momentum strategies are an essential diversifier that should constitute up to 50% of a portfolio. They provide protection during downturns (e.g., 2022) by shorting bonds and other assets when equities fall, and are severely under-allocated by investors.
GMO LONG
Avoid bonds, own T-bills for yield.
The entire fixed-income curve offers inadequate compensation for duration and credit risk relative to risk-free T-bills. Credit spreads are in the top decile historically and are vulnerable to blowing out. Investors should avoid aggregate bonds, corporates, and high yield, and own T-bills instead.
AGG AVOID
BIL LONG
LQD AVOID
HYG AVOID
Use VAMO for hedged value exposure.
VAMO is an ETF that buys US value stocks and dynamically hedges market exposure (0-100%) based on valuation and trend, making it ideal for investors nervous about an expensive S&P 500 while still participating in upside.
VAMO LONG
Global REITs surging, under-owned real asset.
Global REITs are having a surprisingly phenomenal year, up 12% with a value tilt, and represent an under-owned real asset class that investors should include in portfolios.
BLG LONG
Gold improves risk-adjusted portfolio returns.
Gold plays a strategic and tactical role in portfolios by improving risk-return characteristics over time and is hard to argue against as a long-term holding.
GLD LONG
HIGH
14:00
Jul 20
Jul 20
SemiAnalysis
8h
0981.HK 1ST
▾
MED
SMIC progress makes China a fab power.
SMIC's latest DUV node, N+3, has achieved EUV-class density without EUV, demonstrating real progress. Although power and performance still lag the leading edge, this shows China is becoming a serious fab player. SMIC is being directed to license its N+2 and N+3 processes to other domestic fabs. If this learning spreads into AI accelerators and other chips, the choke point moves from a single sanctionable fab to an entire ecosystem, making China less dependent on TSMC and harder to contain. China doesn't need to beat TSMC; it only needs to be good enough to not need TSMC at all.
0981.HK LONG
MED
13:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
005930.KS
000660.KS
EWY
▾
HIGH
Samsung and SK hynix lead rebound, buy
Deleveraging, credit unwinding, and massive global semiconductor fund outflows signal a market capitulation bottom. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are now the last stand being fiercely defended by investors — they showed relative strength with green candles even as the rest of the market collapsed. The upcoming earnings reports (SK hynix final, Samsung final with guidance) will act as catalysts, and guidance will be strong. After a 35–40% correction, the stocks are deeply undervalued. Yoo maintains long-term price targets of 250,000–300,000 won for SK hynix and 30,000–35,000+ won for Samsung Electronics, and believes the trend is not over — this is a buying and holding opportunity.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Hold through weak KOSPI rebound for rally
The market is in the final stage of capitulation: deleveraging, dried-up volume, and pervasive fear. If the KOSPI holds above the recent low and rebounds, a strong rally to 8,000–8,300 is possible. The imminent 20-day/60-day moving average death cross is often a short-term bottom signal. Investors should not sell into a clumsy initial rebound; instead, hold until next week after earnings, because the bounce could turn into a surprisingly strong upswing. Only if the recent low is broken after a rebound should one run.
EWY LONG
HIGH
12:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
10h
000660.KS
005930.KS
MU
005380.KS 1ST
EWY
▾
HIGH
SK hynix near bottom, buy.
SK hynix is down about 40% from its peak, mirroring past deep corrections in market-leading stocks like NVIDIA. The stock is now near a bottom. AI-driven server DRAM demand remains strong, and the ADR is already rallying in after-hours trading. The excessive sell-off presents a buying opportunity.
000660.KS LONG
Samsung near bottom, buy the dip.
Samsung Electronics has fallen 35% from its peak, similar to past NVIDIA corrections that eventually led to new highs. The stock held the 120-day moving average and has technical support at 232,500 KRW. Earnings remain strong, and market pessimism is overdone. Selling now would be a mistake; this is a buying opportunity near the bottom.
005930.KS LONG
Micron rally can ignite memory rebound.
Micron Technology is down 32% and is crucial for global memory sentiment. A strong surge in Micron would break the negative feedback loop dragging down Korean semis. The stock is attempting to reclaim its 60-day moving average, and heavy short positioning could trigger a short-covering rally.
MU LONG
Hyundai Motor deeply undervalued, buy.
Hyundai Motor has fallen about 50% from its peak and is now extremely cheap, trading at a deep discount. The valuation is so attractive it is like a bargain sale, offering a clear buying opportunity at these levels.
005380.KS LONG
KOSPI downside limited, buy index.
KOSPI will not break 6,000; the 6,300 level is strong support and if breached will quickly recover. Foreign buying in index futures at the close signals accumulation. A technical rebound is highly likely, making the index a buy at current levels.
EWY LONG
HIGH
12:30
Jul 20
Jul 20
XLK 1ST
Asia Tech Sector
NVDA 1ST
▾
MED
Tech rout justified by intensified AI race
The US-China AI race has escalated to a new global level where both powers fight for partners and allies, making the recent tech sell-off in Asia and the US fully justified, not an overreaction, and pointing to further downside for tech sectors.
XLK AVOID
Asia Tech Sector AVOID
Tighter chip export controls hurt NVIDIA
The US is likely to tighten export controls on advanced chips to China after the Kimi K3 breakthrough, making it harder for NVIDIA to convince regulators to allow exports, which threatens NVIDIA's China-related revenue.
NVDA AVOID
MED
12:17
Jul 20
Jul 20
BNO 1ST
CRAK 1ST
ITA 1ST
ESA 1ST
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Energy prices poised to spike higher
Diesel and jet fuel spreads are at record highs, reflecting physical market tightness and depleted inventories. With no clear de-escalation path in the US-Iran conflict, energy prices are at significant risk of moving much higher to destroy demand, tightening markets further.
BNO LONG
CRAK LONG
Super cycle in defense, aerospace, AI
A broad-based super cycle is underway in AI, defense, aerospace, and manufacturing, driven by infrastructure spending, electrification, and strong capex. The resilience is wider than most assume, supporting continued dynamism in these sectors.
ITA LONG
ESA LONG
AIQ LONG
Boeing recovering on strong demand, backlog
Boeing is turning the corner, ramping up production on 737 and 787 lines, with very strong market demand and record backlogs. Execution on deliveries and improving financials will support the recovery.
BA LONG
Ryanair gains as fuel costs crush rivals
Ryanair is better hedged than competitors on fuel. High oil prices will force capacity out of the market, allowing Ryanair to gain share and benefit from higher fares as weaker airlines struggle.
RYAAY LONG
Alibaba AI cheap, competitive, open-source
Alibaba's new AI model is highly competitive, claimed to be second only to Anthropic's top model, yet is open-source and up to 90% cheaper than US models. This gives Alibaba a strong position to gain adoption and threaten US dominance.
BABA LONG
Watch US AI hyperscalers, Chinese threat
Chinese AI models are closing the performance gap with US leaders quickly, while being significantly cheaper and open-source. This raises a real risk to US hyperscalers' AI market share and warrants caution on their premium valuations.
GOOGL WATCH
AMZN WATCH
MSFT WATCH
HIGH
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