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04:07
Aug 22
VVV 1ST BTC BITO MEMECOINS AAPL 1ST
VVV kept; buybacks make token deflationary
Venice chose to sell equity and keep the VVV token because the company holds more tokens than anyone and plans to make VVV deflationary through buybacks/burns; Voorhees argues this aligns equity and token holders and can send the token price up as the business grows.
VVV LONG
Bitcoin is permissionless opt-out base money
Bitcoin is his technological refuge because it requires no permission and lets individuals opt out of the political/financial system; he says decentralized technology is the only real solution, and Bitcoin specifically serves the purpose of base money.
BTC LONG
AI agents will use crypto rails
Crypto is better financial tooling, and AI agents or machines will natively use crypto assets on decentralized rails because public keys are easy for machines and bank accounts are not ergonomic; he does not see robots using bank accounts at Wells Fargo.
BITO LONG
Memecoins are nonproductive speculation
Memecoins are self-referential speculation and a race to the bottom; they are consumptive entertainment that does not grow the pie, and they harmed real projects because regulatory incentives favored meme tokens over utility tokens.
MEMECOINS AVOID
Apple escapes tech commoditization via ecosystem
Apple is the rare company that decommoditized deflationary technology through brand, software/hardware symbiosis, and ecosystem lock-in, allowing it to charge premium prices instead of being fully undercut.
AAPL LONG
Aave token has real utility
Kain Warwick points to Aave as one of the few tokens with real utility: the token exists because it keeps the Aave ecosystem working, rather than being merely speculative.
AAVE LONG
HIGH
22:37
Aug 21
FLOP USDT 1ST BTC FLIP
Speculators should hold FLOP for AI economy.
FLOP is being built as the native currency for AI agents because agents need the shortest path from currency to compute and memory; if AI agent commerce grows, FLOP should become the unit of account and speculators should front-run that by holding it.
FLOP LONG
AI agents will reject stablecoins entirely.
AI agents will reject stablecoin rails such as USDT on Base because they are centralized and can be frozen by Coinbase or Tether; agents need a decentralized native currency directly convertible into compute and memory.
USDT AVOID
Bitcoin lacks compute for AI payments.
Crypto makes sense for agents, but Bitcoin is not the right base because Bitcoin 'doesn't do anything'; there are too many leaps between Bitcoin and compute, so Bitcoin is not positioned as the AI agent economy's unit of account.
BTC AVOID
HIGH
22:21
Aug 21
ETH AI data center/hyperscaler capex complex Flop token BTC MSTR FLIP
ETH is high-conviction catch-up long.
ETH is the most hated large-cap crypto and has not eclipsed its 2021 all-time high despite being the second-largest coin. Hayes focuses on positioning rather than Ethereum technology and runs ETH as Maelstrom's largest position outside Bitcoin; he sees an asymmetric catch-up trade and maintains his year-end $5,000 target.
ETH LONG
AI infrastructure is subprime-like capital misallocation.
The AI capex boom is really a debt-financed real estate buildout: hyperscalers are spending trillions on data centers to house chips that depreciate and burn out in roughly two years. Hayes expects a subprime-like bust once markets stop rewarding larger capex, lenders retain risk, or politics turns against data centers, making the AI infrastructure complex a capital misallocation.
AI data center/hyperscaler capex complex AVOID
Flop token targets AI compute economy.
Hayes is building Flop as the unit of compute for the agentic economy: AI agents need the shortest route from currency to FLOPS and censorship-resistant storage/compute, so Flop is designed with no presale, no VC allocation, proof of useful inference mining, an agent-focused airdrop, testnet in Q4 and mainnet in Q1. He bets it can become a top-three crypto within two years if agentic commerce takes off.
Flop token LONG
Soft yield curve control powers crypto.
Japan faces a yen-driven crisis. The BOJ is reluctant to raise rates because it owns huge debt with rising unrealized losses, and if Japan Inc repatriates yen, Japanese holders would sell US Treasuries and stocks. Bessent has called on Japan to use the FIMA repo facility, which would let the Fed expand its balance sheet to absorb Treasury sales; Hayes says that ends in a crypto boom.
BTC LONG
Avoid MSTR; buy Bitcoin ETF instead.
MicroStrategy's structural trade has broken because institutional investors can now get Bitcoin exposure through ETFs, so there is no reason to pay a premium to MSTR's MNAV or accept Saylor's control. Hayes says to buy Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT instead, and that Strategy will limp along but become irrelevant even if Bitcoin reaches $200,000.
MSTR AVOID IBIT LONG
HIGH
16:00
Aug 21
ETH 1ST
Ethereum's security is only $5M daily.
Ethereum's widely cited $100 billion security budget is misleading. The actual cost to attack the network is about $5 million per day at the current curve, and depending on equilibrium for a new curve it may fall to $1 million per day or less, which the speaker doubts is enough to protect Ethereum as a trillion-dollar network.
ETH AVOID
HIGH
09:25
Aug 21
VBV 1ST MEMECOINS 1ST BITO AI inference providers
Venice token aligns users and gets deflationary
Erik argues most AI labs are private, so normal people cannot own a stake in their success. Venice has a token, VBV, that the company deliberately did not sell, and the strategy is to make VBV deflationary by buying back and burning tokens as the business grows, letting users and holders participate in Venice's upside.
VBV LONG
Memecoins don't grow value; avoid them
Erik says memecoins became dominant partly because regulatory pressure made utility-token projects too risky, but memecoins are a race to the bottom: they move money around without growing the pie and are consumptive entertainment rather than accretive value.
MEMECOINS AVOID
Crypto rails win AI machine payments
Crypto is better financial tooling and natively digital money without political gatekeepers. Erik expects AI agents and robots to prefer crypto assets on decentralized rails over bank accounts, making crypto rails the least-friction way for machine value transfer.
BITO LONG
AI inference tokens become unprofitable commodity
Erik says the cost of intelligence is falling dramatically and inference tokens are a commodity. Selling AI inference is a race to the bottom with extremely small margins, VC-subsidized undercutting, and an end-state where no one makes material money selling tokens.
AI inference providers AVOID
HIGH
18:12
Aug 20
MSTR FLIP BTC ETH AI capex/hyperscalers IBIT FLIP
Avoid MSTR; buy Bitcoin ETFs instead
Arthur says MicroStrategy/Strategy is no longer structurally relevant as a Bitcoin proxy because ETFs like IBIT now give institutions direct Bitcoin exposure, so the stock can no longer command the premium that made its debt/ATM issuance work. He advises investors who want Bitcoin exposure through a stock market to buy IBIT or other Bitcoin ETFs rather than MicroStrategy.
MSTR AVOID IBIT LONG
Treasury buybacks signal money printing, bullish crypto
Arthur argues the US Treasury and Fed are effectively running soft yield curve control around a 5% 10-year yield. The Treasury is buying the long end and funding it with bill issuance while the Fed keeps the short end cheap, capping long yields and signaling they will defend 5%. This is a form of money printing/liquidity support that woke up Bitcoin and crypto and is the path toward outright balance sheet expansion.
BTC LONG
ETH catch-up trade to $5,000
Ethereum is the most hated large-cap crypto and has not exceeded its 2021 all-time high despite being the second-largest asset. Arthur says Maelstrom holds ETH as its largest position outside Bitcoin and that the trade is about positioning, not technology. Once it breaks higher, he expects a reflexive catch-up move and maintains his year-end target of $5,000.
ETH LONG
AI capex is a debt-fueled bubble
Arthur views AI capex as a debt-funded real estate buildout housing quickly depreciating chips. Hyperscalers are being rewarded for spending more on capex, but the financing is becoming bank balance-sheet risk and the economics are a massive capital misallocation. He expects the AI capex/hyperscaler complex to deflate as the market starts rewarding capex cuts and questions cash flows, potentially causing a 2000-style financial crisis.
AI capex/hyperscalers AVOID
FLOP becomes agentic economy's compute currency
FLOP is Arthur Hayes' new token and network designed to be the unit of compute for the agentic economy, with proof of useful inference, no presale, and no VC allocation. The only ways to obtain it are testnet airdrop, mining, or secondary market. He is betting it becomes a top-three crypto within two years as agents use it to buy compute and store memory on a censorship-resistant network.
FLOP LONG
HIGH
17:02
Aug 20
ETH AAVE 1ST
EIP-8363 reduces ETH dilution by curbing overstaking.
EIP-8363 would burn a rising portion of validator rewards as the staking ratio climbs, causing issuance to taper toward zero around 50% of ETH staked, targeting a minimum viable issuance of 0.5% and an ideal staking ratio of 20-30%; this removes the subsidy for overstaking and stops the dilution non-staking ETH holders currently face.
ETH LONG
EIP-8363 may cut DeFi validator income sharply.
Kevin relays Stani Kulechov's math that EIP-8363 would cut validator income from about 3% to 1.5%, a 50% cut; he flags concerns that a near-zero yield regime could kill the case for borrowing ETH and create a tax landmine, pressuring DeFi businesses such as Aave.
AAVE AVOID
HIGH
02:57
Aug 20
ETH
Lower issuance and dilution supports ETH.
Oisín opposes cutting staking yield to zero because Ethereum's effective security budget is already only millions of dollars per day in potential bribe/coercion costs, not the full $100B staked. He says a zero-yield curve could drive rational stakers to leave, concentrate stake among a few large entities, and weaken censorship resistance, so Ethereum should retain at least 0.5% issuance.
ETH LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 19
ETH 1ST SOL 1ST
Solana wins on cost and throughput
Render Network migrated from Ethereum to Solana because Ethereum gas fees were cost-prohibitive at larger transaction scale, and even layer 2 testing did not provide the throughput and scale the project needed. Solana offered a better cost and throughput profile for Render's use case.
ETH AVOID SOL LONG
HIGH
16:26
Aug 18
ETH 1ST
Lower issuance reduces dilution, supports ETH
EIP-8363's path toward zero staking issuance is risky because Ethereum's practical security budget against censorship/collusion is only a few million dollars per day, not the full staked ETH. Cutting issuance to zero could make rational stakers exit, let a large holder drive issuance to zero, and worsen the Nakamoto coefficient. He argues for keeping the ~0.5% minimum viable issuance and waiting for MEV burn before any issuance cut.
ETH LONG
HIGH
15:18
Aug 18
PREDICTION MARKETS
Prediction market jurisdiction faces Supreme Court.
Jacob argues prediction markets are fundamentally different from gambling houses even though the user interface looks similar, and they are likely to become the institutional product while gambling remains retail, so both should be able to exist and CFTC-registered prediction markets should be defended.
PREDICTION MARKETS WATCH
MED
21:52
Aug 14
BTC FRIEND 1ST HYPE RWA
Bitcoin too large for harmful forks.
The failed BIP 110 Bitcoin soft fork shows that Bitcoin is now too large, valuable, and decentralized for side forks or Bitcoin Cash-style splits to work; most holders and miners just want the orange coin, and fork promoters no longer have the hash power or exchange support to make free-money forks viable.
BTC LONG
Friend Tech is dead; withdraw funds.
Taylor tells Kain to remove his remaining ETH from Friend Tech because Friend Tech is dead and from the prior bear market; the app/token is no longer worth holding.
FRIEND AVOID
HYPE buybacks cannibalized by market-creator fees.
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market creators keep 50% of fees, and because RWA markets now dominate volume, fees are being cannibalized away from HYPE buybacks; net buybacks fell from about $290m to $150m despite volumes not falling, so the 50% fee split is unsustainable and likely to change.
HYPE AVOID
RWA volume overtaking crypto on Hyperliquid.
RWA markets are the biggest growth area on Hyperliquid: RWA open interest is about $3.6B and now bigger than Bitcoin when treated as its own market, RWA share of volume keeps rising, and trade.xyz controls about 90% of HIP-3 open interest.
RWA WATCH
HIGH
19:46
Aug 14
BTC
Bitcoin monthly oversold setup may mark low
Bitcoin's monthly stochastic oscillator has been oversold for months, and DeMark indicators show downside exhaustion on the monthly chart. Combined with weekly and monthly oversold conditions and nearby long-term support from prior lows, Fibonacci retracement levels, and the cloud model, this suggests a potential major low is in place. However, Katie wants confirmation via the monthly stochastics decisively turning back above 20% before treating it as an oversold buy signal.
BTC WATCH
HIGH
12:00
Aug 14
NBIS GLD SILVER FWA MEMECOINS
Crypto traders broaden into other assets
After the October 10 crypto volume collapse, he observed gold, silver, and AI stocks trading like memes and believes crypto traders are now broadening into equities, metals, and AI names. Platforms like Hyperliquid and equity perps make this possible, and names like Nebius show crypto-like volatility outside crypto.
NBIS WATCH GLD WATCH SILVER WATCH
Friction-backed tokens can't be vamped
In a zero-cost-to-deploy vampire culture, assets with real friction or sticky collateral cannot be easily copied and are breaking out. Hyperliquid has liquidity and trader network effects; Anomcoin stakes Anom's reputation; Cashcat has Vlad endorsement; FWA has NFT/ETH backing. He sees a mini onchain experimentation renaissance.
FWA LONG HYPE LONG
Memecoin niche is underpriced and durable
He believes the latest memecoin rebound is mostly crypto-native capital front-running expected Robinhood demand rather than new money arriving. Almost no new retail flow has come in, and if that demand does not materialize over the next 3 to 6 months, the memecoin complex will pancake again because there is no new top-of-funnel capital.
MEMECOINS LONG CASHCAT LONG ANOM LONG
Existing onchain infrastructure keeps growing
He argues existing onchain rails such as stablecoins, DeFi, onchain trading, Hyperliquid, derivatives, and tokenized stocks will keep growing steadily even if that growth feels boring. This structural growth is separate from the next AI-driven onchain inflection.
DEFI LONG
Tokenizing offchain value is early
He thinks wrapping offchain financial value such as equities, commodities, cash flows, and preferred-stock-like exposures into onchain coins is very early and has a lot of potential. Coins are just product wrappers, and experimentation around tokenized external value is likely to expand over the next two years.
TOKENIZED STOCKS LONG
Active investing is a permanent shift
He says active investing and public risk-taking are a permanent cultural shift. Younger investors do not want to rely only on S&P-and-chill, and they increasingly trade through Robinhood, zero-day options, individual stocks, perps, and onchain markets, driving more retail volume and speculative single-stock moves.
HOOD LONG
HIGH
04:18
Aug 14
ONDO
Ondo governance fight risks operations; monitor.
Katherine argues that Ondo now has two competing chains of authority and active Delaware litigation, which puts leadership and vision in question and is likely to cause collateral damage to strategic partnerships and ongoing operations. She says the company is still thriving with an interesting value proposition, but the unresolved succession and CEO search create an event-driven governance setup to monitor.
ONDO WATCH
HIGH
03:19
Aug 13
ONDO
Ondo governance fight threatens operations.
Ondo Finance is in a boardroom control fight after founder Nathan Allman's death left the company with zero sitting directors, and the competing authority claims from Ian De Bode and Kathleen Allman create leadership volatility and likely collateral damage to strategic partnerships and ongoing operations, making the company/token a governance-risk watch item until succession is resolved.
ONDO WATCH
MED
19:19
Aug 12
BTC FLIP HYPE FLIP
Bitcoin fork failed; network too large.
The BIP-110 Bitcoin fork attempt attracted almost no mining support, fizzled after roughly two blocks, and showed that Bitcoin is now too large and ossified for old-guard fork games or censorship pushes to matter. The failed fork reinforces Bitcoin's value and resilience because most holders simply want the original orange coin to keep working.
BTC LONG
HYPE buybacks drained by RWA fee share.
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market-creation incentive gives RWA market builders 50% of fees, which is cannibalizing the fee pool that previously funded HYPE buybacks. Net buyback fees fell from roughly $290 million to $150 million even as fees and volumes remained strong, and the 50% builder split looks unsustainable or likely to change, creating a clear drag on HYPE token value.
HYPE AVOID
HIGH
15:12
Aug 12
ETH
ETH yield-cut proposal will fail.
Austin argues that cutting ETH staking yield to zero while US government money market funds pay around 3.5% makes ETH much less attractive; investors need a very strong ETH appreciation case to prefer ETH over cash, and some may lend ETH and borrow dollars to capture money-market yield, creating carry pressure.
ETH LONG
HIGH
20:13
Aug 11
SPK
Buybacks and profits support SPK value.
SPK token is backed by a fundamentally strong, profitable protocol with quarterly financial reports. Excess profits are used for token buybacks via governance votes. MacPherson expects token valuations to converge on a DCF model and states he is not worried about short-term price, implying long-term value accrual.
SPK LONG
MED
16:27
Aug 10
SPK 1ST
SPK token cheap, strong fundamentals, buybacks
The SPK token is undervalued near its all-time low because the underlying Spark protocol is profitable and generating strong revenue growth across multiple products (Sparkland, Spark Savings, institutional lending). A governance-approved buyback mechanism will direct excess profits to SPK token buybacks, providing fundamental support. Short-term price does not worry him due to the compounding business.
SPK LONG
MED
17:52
Aug 07
ETH
ETH could drop if issuance cut enacted
The proposed EIP-8361 to reduce ETH staking issuance could cause tens of billions of dollars of ETH to be unstaked and hit the market, putting severe downward pressure on ETH price; the argument to cut issuance is weaker than the argument to increase it, and the safest course is to not change monetary policy.
ETH WATCH
MED
14:00
Aug 06
Public blockchains
Public blockchains win over private networks.
Public blockchains are a better bet than private networks for tokenization because they are more competitive, faster to scale, have battle-tested security across multiple crypto cycles, and benefit from more robust liquidity and growing openness from enterprises over the last 12-18 months.
Public blockchains LONG
HIGH
12:00
Aug 06
ETH 1ST
ETH cannot be credible hard money.
Ethereum's monetary policy credibility is destroyed by the constant tinkering with staking yields and supply, as seen in EIP-8361. If policy changes frequently, ETH can never be trusted as hard money like Bitcoin, because there is no confidence that the rules won't shift again. This makes ETH unattractive as a long-term store of value.
ETH AVOID
HIGH
15:34
Aug 04
LINK 1ST
Chainlink dominates DeFi and on-chain finance.
Chainlink dominates DeFi and is playing a critical role in bringing the global financial system on-chain, with an incredible team and a chain-agnostic mission.
LINK LONG
MED
04:38
Aug 04
COIN 1ST
Avoid unauthorized tokenized equity derivatives.
Unauthorized tokenized equity derivatives that trade offshore without issuer permission are not true equity, carry counterparty risk, miss corporate actions like dividends and splits, enable insider trading, and are unsustainable. Similar structures have failed before (e.g., shadow banks in 2021) and regulators will eventually crack down, so investors should avoid these products.
COIN AVOID
HIGH
18:04
Aug 03
MSFT 1ST META 1ST Artificial Intelligence SECZ AVAX 1ST
AI adoption is real; Microsoft outperforms Meta.
The artificial intelligence theme is real and only in the second inning of adoption, with tangible use cases improving corporate operating income. Microsoft is executing well on this front based on recent earnings, whereas Meta is lagging.
MSFT LONG META AVOID Artificial Intelligence LONG
Strong balance sheet funds Securitize's strategic expansion.
Securitize is well-positioned for growth with a strong balance sheet of ~$400 million, allowing for strategic acquisitions in complementary areas like fund administration and international expansion. The company is leading the market in fully compliant, issuer-sponsored tokenization and is partnering with the NYSE for a Q4 trading launch.
SECZ LONG
Solana and Avalanche offer superior RWA infrastructure.
Solana and Avalanche are preferred blockchain networks for institutional real-world asset (RWA) tokenization. Avalanche offers deterministic settlement, avoiding the regulatory risks of trade unwinding present on Layer-2s, while Solana provides proven proprietary market-making technology for efficient onchain trading.
AVAX LONG SOL LONG
HIGH
22:44
Jul 31
META 1ST AI 1ST MSFT 1ST
Meta penalized for vague AI capex ROI.
Meta raised its CapEx guidance without providing clear proof of revenue growth or the timeliness of a discernible ROI on AI spending. Q3 revenue guidance was a little below the midpoint. This lack of clarity, combined with the market’s higher burden of proof after poorly received initial LLMs and Chinese competition, put the stock in the penalty box, resulting in a sharp 10% decline. The market is punishing companies that blow through free cash flow on AI without demonstrating a return.
META AVOID
AI theme is real, early innings.
The AI buildout is still in its early innings, not a bubble. Every earnings call across all sectors and cap sizes now discusses using AI for efficiency, productivity, and profitability. The use case is tangible, companies are starting to demonstrate improved operating income, and the CapEx boom reflects high-conviction, real demand. The secular theme is intact and likely to persist for years.
AI LONG
Azure strength and disciplined CapEx lift Microsoft.
Microsoft’s Azure cloud growth came in super strong, the key metric the market wanted to see. Management provided solid quantitative information, sounded confident, and crucially maintained their CapEx guidance (did not raise it). This demonstrated AI-related revenue traction and spending discipline, in contrast to Meta, and drove the stock higher.
MSFT LONG
HIGH
19:37
Jul 31
ZEC CANTON 1ST
Zcash offers better digital gold than Bitcoin.
Zcash offers a better store of value and digital gold than Bitcoin because it delivers fungibility through privacy, quantum recoverability via the Ironwood upgrade, higher throughput, and a mathematically verified supply that eliminates undetectable counterfeiting bugs. It is a clear viable alternative for users who require additional privacy and sound money properties.
ZEC LONG
Canton’s trust-based privacy is like a bank.
Canton achieves privacy through trust in a single sequencer (trust me bro), which is no better than the guarantees a bank provides. There is no reason to expose oneself to those weak, non-cryptographic guarantees when one could just use a bank.
CANTON AVOID
HIGH
00:00
Jul 31
ARB HOOD 1ST
Arbitrum's licensing and revenue model ensures survival.
Arbitrum's sustainable licensing model forces major partners like Robinhood to pay for the technology, unlike Optimism where Base stopped paying, ensuring real revenue. Combined with a focus on product sustainability, strong distribution partners, and prudent grant philosophy, Arbitrum is well-positioned to survive the ongoing consolidation and emerge stronger.
ARB LONG
Robinhood's crypto chain attracts institutional interest.
Robinhood is forward-thinking in its crypto chain strategy, leading the way among traditional finance firms by building its own chain. This is drawing massive inbound interest from Wall Street, positioning Robinhood Chain as a major distribution partner and a competitive advantage that could drive significant value.
HOOD LONG
HIGH
15:29
Jul 30
ZEC BTC
Zcash is private digital gold alternative.
Zcash has emerged as a leading privacy cryptocurrency, moving from top 100 to top 10, and serves as a better store of value (private digital gold) than Bitcoin for users who require fungibility and privacy. The recent Ironwood upgrade adds quantum recoverability and formal verification, eliminating undetectable counterfeiting bugs and reducing risk. Zcash also scales better than Bitcoin with faster block times. There will always be a market for a censorship-resistant, fungible digital currency, and Zcash fills that gap as a viable alternative.
ZEC LONG
Bitcoin will rebound on institutional demand.
Institutional demand for blockchain tokenization as infrastructure is very strong. Bitcoin's price is currently subdued but will surely come back. The Volmex team has built the Biv index (Bitcoin volatility index term structure) and made it tradable on Polymarket, simplifying volatility trading for retail investors.
BTC LONG
HIGH