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21:00
Aug 22
Aug 22
COHR 1ST
SOXX
LITE
GOOGL 1ST
AMD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Optical networking is AI interconnect consensus.
AI data movement requires far more capacity than copper interconnects can handle, so optical/CPO connectivity is becoming the consensus. Nvidia and TSMC's CPO collaboration for AI accelerators makes optical networking a critical bottleneck, and Marvell, Coherent, and Lumentum are already gaining momentum with strong earnings revisions; the speaker is watching this area with particular interest.
COHR LONG
LITE LONG
MRVL LONG
Semi index earnings support recovery.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still shows an upward EPS trend while its price is about 15% below the high and trades near 22x earnings. Semiconductor crowding has eased from 82% to 53%, and leadership is rotating within semis, supporting a bumpy recovery rather than a broken trend.
SOXX LONG
Google credit/dilution fears are overblown.
Google is not the dangerous hyperscaler credit story: revenue growth is expected to stay around 20% through 2028, cloud revenue is growing strongly, cloud operating margin is in the mid-30s, demand exceeds capacity, and Google remains net cash with interest income above interest expense and no visible equity dilution, so debt-funded capex fears are overblown.
GOOGL LONG
These large caps look short/long-term decent.
Among large-cap names, Micron, AMD, Exxon Mobil, Lam Research, and Applied Materials look acceptable to hold for both short-term and long-term, according to the speaker's screening of market-cap leaders.
AMD LONG
MU LONG
XOM LONG
LRCX LONG
AMAT LONG
S&P 500 valuation supported by earnings.
S&P 500 valuation is not too high at about 20.1x trailing P/E because previous market peaks reached 23x and current earnings growth is steep enough that multiples stay low even as prices rise; this is a supportive valuation backdrop despite high rates.
SPY LONG
Nvidia and Marvell earnings are key catalysts.
Next week's Nvidia and Marvell earnings are critical catalysts: Nvidia's results and Marvell's guidance will determine how CPO design and AI accelerator demand affect related semiconductor and optical networking stocks, so the speaker is monitoring them as event-driven signposts.
NVDA WATCH
HIGH
12:10
Aug 22
Aug 22
403870.KQ 1ST
007660.KS 1ST
356860.KQ 1ST
420770.KQ 1ST
095340.KQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Semi equipment stocks show strong market leadership.
Semiconductor equipment stocks demonstrated relative strength and continuous buying pressure even during significant broader market declines, signaling they are potential market leaders to watch for the next rally.
403870.KQ LONG
007660.KS LONG
356860.KQ LONG
420770.KQ LONG
095340.KQ LONG
089030.KQ LONG
240810.KQ LONG
Samsung Electronics preferred shares attract dividend seekers.
Following SK Hynix's massive buyback announcement, expectations for large-scale shareholder returns from Samsung Electronics are driving strong buying pressure into its preferred shares due to their high dividend appeal.
005935.KS LONG
The stock is recovering towards 500,000 won.
The stock has formed a solid rounded bottom after a prolonged correction, and based on the current trend, it has the potential to recover to the 500,000 won level.
214450.KQ LONG
Samsung affiliates benefit from expected shareholder returns.
These companies hold significant stakes in Samsung Electronics and are demonstrating resilient stock performance as they are expected to benefit from Samsung's anticipated shareholder return policies.
032830.KS LONG
028260.KS LONG
000810.KS LONG
Cosmetics companies show resilience with strong earnings.
These cosmetics companies are demonstrating solid earnings and maintaining strong stock performance despite macroeconomic headwinds like high interest rates and oil prices.
241710.KQ LONG
251970.KQ LONG
257720.KQ LONG
192820.KS LONG
Dividend focus and foreign buying drive upside.
The company is likely to focus on dividends rather than buybacks due to ownership limits for its financial affiliates, and with retail investors holding the bottom, a return of foreign capital could easily push the stock to previous highs.
005930.KS LONG
Smart ADR arbitrage funds massive share buybacks.
The company is executing a highly accretive 40 trillion won share buyback and cancellation program by issuing ADRs at a premium in the US and buying undervalued local shares, creating strong downside support and potential for a short squeeze.
000660.KS LONG
Phase 3 success validates mRNA oncology expansion.
The successful Phase 3 trial for its personalized mRNA melanoma vaccine validates the platform's expansion into oncology, reducing uncertainty and justifying a hold for existing investors or buying on dips for new ones.
MRNA LONG
Hold long-term for robotics and autonomous driving.
The company should be held long-term as the massive potential value of its autonomous driving, Optimus humanoid robots, and synergies with SpaceX are not yet fully reflected in the current stock price.
TSLA LONG
HIGH
05:22
Aug 22
Aug 22
HBM
EWY
BTC FLIP
079550.KS
ITA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Nvidia reducing HBM capacity poses memory risks.
Nvidia's potential reduction of HBM capacity in the upcoming Rubin Ultra architecture is a negative signal for memory semiconductors, suggesting Nvidia might be altering designs to bypass high HBM costs and supply constraints.
HBM WATCH
Favorable exchange rates and earnings support KOSPI.
The Korean stock market is well-positioned for foreign investment as the won's depreciation trend has reversed and the US will not tolerate further won weakness. Furthermore, Korea boasts the highest earnings improvement rate globally and cheap valuations.
EWY LONG
Bitcoin historically crashes during midterm election years.
Historically, Bitcoin has suffered massive crashes (30% to 74%) during midterm election years (2014, 2018, 2022) between late August and the election, contradicting the popular belief that election stimulus supports crypto. Investors should avoid it during this period.
BTC AVOID
Defense stocks offer structural growth trading opportunities.
Defense stocks like LIG Nex1 are structural growth stocks that are suitable for box-range trading during the current market correction, as their valuations are not overly expensive and they offer solid fundamentals.
079550.KS LONG
ITA LONG
Nvidia reducing HBM capacity poses memory risks.
The idea that Apple will use Chinese memory is unrealistic given China's low self-sufficiency and inability to meet Apple's low price demands. The current memory stock correction is a temporary supply-demand distortion, presenting a buying opportunity around mid-September ahead of October earnings.
SMH WATCH
Massive buybacks and cancellations boost SK hynix.
SK hynix's aggressive shareholder return policy, involving a massive 40 trillion won share buyback and cancellation program (buying ~640 billion won daily, representing 7% of daily trading volume), demonstrates management's confidence and will significantly boost EPS and shareholder value.
000660.KS LONG
AI servers drive Samsung Electro-Mechanics' MLCC growth.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is experiencing full MLCC utilization and rapid price increases, driven by massive MLCC content growth in AI servers (e.g., GB200, Vera). With projected EPS growth of 74%, the stock has significant upside based on a conservative PEG ratio.
009150.KS LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
ISC 1ST
Cosmax
005930.KS FLIP
KCC 1ST
003230.KS
▾
HIGH
ISC recovering as foreign ownership jumps
ISC's price broke below its 20-month moving average but is recovering, and foreign ownership has jumped even as price fell, indicating accumulation during weakness.
ISC LONG
Hold Cosmax because it didn't fall
During a weak July market, Cosmax rose instead of falling, showing relative strength. Park argues investors should hold stocks that resist market declines rather than sell them to rotate into beaten-down names such as SK Hynix, because stocks that do not fall during a market break tend to lead later.
Cosmax LONG
Samsung Electronics has foundry and dividend catalysts
Samsung Electronics' foundry is returning to profit, and expectations for special shareholder-return dividends are likely to emerge by late this year or early next year, supporting the stock as it recovers about 50% of its recent drop. He contrasts its stronger recovery with SK Hynix.
005930.KS LONG
KCC is ridiculously undervalued versus assets
KCC announced a value-up plan using its large Samsung C&T stake to fund special dividends, buybacks, and share cancellations, while targeting 2030 PBR above 1x and 10% operating margin. Its market cap is only about 4 trillion won against roughly 9.8 trillion won in listed financial assets including an 8 trillion won Samsung C&T stake, so the stock is trading far below asset value and is being repriced.
KCC LONG
Buy Samyang Foods on rotation back
Samyang Foods is seeing foreign and pension buying as money that had rotated into Samsung Electronics returns to the stock; it had fallen since last September while Samsung Electronics rallied, and now Samsung Electronics is consolidating, allowing capital to rotate back.
003230.KS LONG
Avoid Samsung Electro-Mechanics after overextended rally
Samsung Electro-Mechanics rebounded about 60% of its drop but is now weakening as foreign and institutional investors sell; with market cap back near 104 trillion won and PBR above 11x, the earnings recovery next year appears already too aggressively priced in, so further institutional adjustment is likely.
009150.KS AVOID
Foreign investors are repricing Samsung C&T
Foreign investors have steadily raised their Samsung C&T ownership to about 31%, viewing Korea's asset-heavy undervalued holding companies as mispriced; government value-up policy and governance reform are now causing these companies, including Samsung C&T, to be repriced.
028260.KS LONG
Pan Ocean chart and foreign buying bullish
Pan Ocean has been grinding upward in a cup-and-handle-like pattern as foreign investors continue to accumulate, and Park views the chart as unusual enough to track; persistent foreign buying supports a positive setup.
028670.KS LONG
Biotech rotation lifts Alteogen after oversold drop
Alteogen, the largest KOSDAQ biotech by market cap, fell about 55% from its high because market attention was concentrated on semiconductors; now money is rotating back into biotech and the stock is recovering.
196170.KQ LONG
HPSP recovers on foreign and institutional buying
HPSP is recovering quickly within an intact monthly uptrend after being dragged down during the semiconductor decline; it has very high foreign ownership, strong operating margins, and both institutions and foreigners are buying.
403870.KQ LONG
Hold Cosmecca Korea on relative strength
Cosmecca Korea did not fall during the July market decline and instead rose 14.2% that month, and it is up about 74% this month; investors who sold into the panic would have missed a clear relative-strength leader.
Cosmecca Korea LONG
Pharma Research quietly finding its path higher
Pharma Research Products was ignored and fell while Samsung Electronics peaked, but it is now finding its own path higher; the loss of chatter around the stock suggests retail investors have left, a contrarian positive setup.
214450.KQ LONG
Watch Seegene for speculative foreign-accumulation pop
Seegene, a former COVID-era high-flyer, is showing an unusual chart with continuous foreign buying; Park speculates this could eventually 'pop' after other COVID-era names move first.
Seegene WATCH
Jeju Semiconductor shows renewed upward momentum
Jeju Semiconductor is grinding back higher after rebounding from 50,000 won to 90,000 won, gaining about 17.5% this month and previously up as much as 45.6%, showing renewed momentum.
080220.KQ LONG
SM has seasonal bottoming and recovery setup
SM's chart is bottoming with a shallower downtrend and more bullish candles; on monthly charts it bottomed in September-October of the prior cycle and then rose, and it has a seasonal pattern of buying in even-year September-October and selling in odd years.
SM LONG
Koh Young is solid with foreign buying
Koh Young Technology is seeing continued foreign buying and is described as a very solid stock, with the chart showing resilience.
Koh Young Technology LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 21
Aug 21
000660.KS
EWY
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
SK Hynix shareholder returns enable long-term holding.
SK Hynix's new shareholder return policy, returning more than 50% of free cash flow to shareholders and effectively removing the old 50% cap, changes how investors should treat this cyclical memory stock. The company has averaged around a 27% operating margin over 40 quarters, and if it shares profits even during downturns, the stock should be supported when earnings weaken and reward holders during booms. That means investors no longer need to trade around the cycle and can hold it long-term like a Buffett-style position.
000660.KS LONG
Korean shareholder return shift supports long-term holding.
The Korean stock market is at a major crossroads because companies, led by SK Hynix, are raising shareholder return ratios. Historically Korean investors had to sell cyclical winners because earnings mean-reverted and companies retained cash, but if broad corporate Korea follows with stronger payouts, Korean stocks can shift from a trading market to a long-term holding market, reducing the need for constant buy-and-sell. Positive shareholder-return signals are accumulating in the Korean market.
EWY LONG
Samsung shareholder return policy drives re-rating.
For Samsung Electronics, the key investor issue is shareholder return. The company already produces record earnings and memory demand expectations were largely reflected in the first-half rally, so the main thing shareholders can demand is a larger shareholder return. Passive shareholder return would signal cash hoarding for a future downcycle and is negative for the stock, while active shareholder return is likely to be taken by the market as a re-rating signal because reduced volatility supports valuation.
005930.KS WATCH
HIGH
07:34
Aug 21
Aug 21
EWY
000660.KS
MRNA
BTC FLIP
▾
HIGH
Korean shareholder return shift supports KOSPI.
Park says the SK Hynix shareholder-return shock is the beginning of a broader Korean corporate payout shift. As leading KOSPI companies raise shareholder return ratios, the old 'sell the cycle' trading approach becomes less necessary, and this structural change is a positive signal for the Korean stock market.
EWY LONG
Hynix shareholder return supports long-term holding.
SK Hynix announced a historic 40 trillion won buyback to be fully cancelled over three months and raised its shareholder return policy to more than 50% of cumulative free cash flow with no upper bound. Park argues this changes the old 'sell Korean cyclicals when earnings peak' logic: Hynix's 40-quarter average operating margin is around 27%, and if the company returns the majority of profits to shareholders, investors can hold through downturns instead of actively trading around the cycle.
000660.KS LONG
Personalized cancer vaccine progress boosts Moderna.
Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine, tested with MSD's Keytruda in a large phase 3 melanoma trial, hit its primary endpoint. Park views the expandable platform as a reason to reconsider Moderna's market cap and revisit prior research, while acknowledging FDA approval, manufacturing consistency, high cost, and uncertain timing hurdles remain.
MRNA WATCH
Bitcoin uptrend remains intact despite rates.
Despite a rebound in US Treasury yields, Bitcoin kept rising with three consecutive positive candles. Park interprets this as evidence that the move into risk assets has not broken even under high yields, supported by Treasury buyback expansion hopes and Trump's comment that rates should move lower.
BTC LONG
HIGH
02:56
Aug 21
Aug 21
SPY
QQQ
006400.KS 1ST
IWF 1ST
XLP
▾
HIGH
S&P 500, QQQ, and SOXX offer strong growth.
For long-term investments, the S&P 500 is a reliable offensive asset, while the Nasdaq (QQQ) and the PHLX Semiconductor Sector (SOXX) serve as even stronger offensive vehicles compared to defensive consumer staples.
SPY LONG
QQQ LONG
Samsung SDI benefits from higher-margin ESS focus.
Samsung SDI is a better investment than LG Energy Solution because it has lower exposure to the sluggish EV market and has preemptively shifted its focus to the higher-margin ESS market, leading to upward consensus revisions and a successful turnaround.
006400.KS LONG
High-quality US growth stocks outperform defensive staples.
In the US market, it is statistically more probable to outperform by picking high-quality growth stocks rather than relying on a barbell strategy with defensive consumer staples like Walmart or Philip Morris, which struggle to beat the market.
IWF LONG
XLP AVOID
Korean defense is a structural growth industry.
The Korean defense sector has evolved into a structural growth industry (blue chip) due to ongoing global geopolitical conflicts and increasing demand from Europe and the US, justifying a P/B valuation of 5x to 13x.
Korean defense sector LONG
Secondary batteries enter a clear buy-and-hold phase.
The secondary battery sector has transitioned from a trading market to a buy-and-hold phase with clear upward visibility, as operating profit margins are improving and Q3 shipments and earnings will definitively surpass Q2.
Secondary batteries LONG
Maintain exposure to key large-cap Korean sectors.
Investors should maintain exposure to and study major large-cap stocks in autos, semiconductors, and biopharmaceuticals (like Samsung Biologics) to avoid severe underperformance and FOMO during market rallies.
Korean autos WATCH
SMH WATCH
207940.KS WATCH
A strong bull market begins in October.
The Korean market will likely fluctuate in a narrow box range until September due to macro noise affecting speculative traders, but investors should hold their positions as a strong bull market will begin in October or November.
EWY LONG
S&P 500, QQQ, and SOXX offer strong growth.
The US Treasury Secretary will likely intervene with strong messages to prevent interest rates from rising to 4.7%-4.8% and causing a triple weakness, which will support a rebound and upward trend for the semiconductor index.
SOXX LONG
HIGH
22:14
Aug 20
Aug 20
BABA 1ST
TLT
SPY
002900.KS
006360.KS
▾
HIGH
Cloud and AI growth make Alibaba undervalued.
Alibaba's e-commerce cash cow remains stable, while its cloud and AI model businesses are showing strong growth (cloud +45%, AI +125%). The company is heavily investing in GPUs, and its GPU subsidiary is undervalued. The current valuation at a forward P/E of 16x is attractive, making it a good buy despite recent sluggishness.
BABA LONG
Treasury buybacks won't permanently lower rising yields.
The US Treasury's buyback program is only a temporary fix for the structural debt problem. With national debt over $40 trillion and global yields rising, it is unlikely for US Treasury yields to stabilize downward easily. Investors should closely monitor upcoming PCE and employment data.
TLT WATCH
S&P 500 significantly outperforms defensive consumer staples.
Consumer staples are defensive and hold up better during market stress, but they significantly underperform the S&P 500 over the long term (24.7% vs 70% over 5 years). Investors are better off focusing on growth stocks or the broader S&P 500 to achieve higher returns, rather than hiding in high-multiple, low-growth staples.
SPY LONG
XLP AVOID
Deere's strong earnings boost agricultural construction plays.
Deere & Company surged on strong earnings and plans to expand into data center construction equipment. This positive read-through suggests monitoring Korean agricultural machinery stocks like TYM and data center construction plays like GS E&C.
002900.KS WATCH
006360.KS WATCH
Bitcoin faces strong technical resistance around $75k-$78k.
Bitcoin rebounded to $72k driven by a short squeeze and positive regulatory comments from the Trump administration. However, strong technical resistance lies ahead at the $75k-$78k range (Ichimoku cloud). Investors should exercise caution and not assume a full bull market has started until this resistance is cleared.
BTC WATCH
Trump's regulatory support boosts Hyperliquid's US prospects.
Hyperliquid surged 20-30% after Trump mentioned efforts to bring the decentralized exchange to the US legally. The SEC's recent regulatory clarity also acts as a positive catalyst for the token, making it a key asset to watch as US crypto regulations evolve.
HYPE WATCH
High valuation makes Walmart vulnerable to slowdowns.
Walmart trades at a high valuation (P/E 33x) despite low single-digit revenue growth. The recent 9% drop was triggered by price cuts on 11,000 items due to consumer pushback and slowing sales, leading to lowered guidance. The high multiple makes the stock highly vulnerable to any growth deceleration.
WMT AVOID
US prototype contract validates global defense competitiveness.
Hanwha Aerospace won a $100M prototype contract for the US Army's self-propelled howitzer program, proving its global top-tier competitiveness. This could lead to a massive replacement cycle of 500 units by 2028. Earnings estimates are being sharply revised upward (2025 OP 620B KRW), and its valuation is attractive compared to global peers.
012450.KS LONG
ESS demand drives Samsung SDI's earnings recovery.
Battery cell makers are recovering faster than materials, driven by ESS demand and improving capacity utilization. Samsung SDI is the top pick as it has less exposure to the sluggish EV market, is successfully repurposing lines for ESS, and has secured full ownership of its US joint venture, providing high earnings visibility.
006400.KS LONG
Battery materials offer selective timeline-based recovery plays.
While battery cells are preferred, materials have their own recovery timelines. LNF is attractive for the short term due to high-nickel and 46-series shipments, while Ecopro BM is a medium-term play based on its Hungary plant operations starting in late 2024.
066970.KS WATCH
247540.KQ WATCH
HIGH
10:00
Aug 20
Aug 20
Gangnam real estate
IEF 1ST
Scarce real assets
EWY
KO
▾
HIGH
Buy scarce assets like Gangnam real estate.
Park Se-ik argues that large-city real estate cannot be suppressed because jobs and population concentrate there, division of labor raises total community wealth, and ongoing money printing fuels inflation. He says assets with scarcity value should be the core of investing, and specifically points to Gangnam real estate as structurally underpinned by these forces.
Gangnam real estate LONG
Scarce real assets LONG
US long-term Treasury prices can rally.
He expects long-term interest rates to fall eventually because current high rates are hurting self-employed businesses and US employment is worsening. Once the economy slows, rates will inevitably come back down, supporting long-duration US Treasury positions.
IEF LONG
TLT LONG
High rates offer cheap Korean stock entry.
The recent KOSPI drop was triggered by rising global long-term rates, but domestic brokerages see limited direct impact because the US 10-year yield remains below 5% and Korean valuations are low after the July correction. Park adds that high rates are giving investors a chance to buy stocks cheaply, and low valuations provide downside support.
EWY LONG
Coca-Cola benefits from high-rate survival.
In a prolonged high-rate environment, companies that can survive without relying on continued funding outperform. He points to Coca-Cola as a recent example of that defensive cash-flow bid, while growth stocks swing on funding worries.
KO LONG
HIGH
08:15
Aug 20
Aug 20
MRNA
Korean biotech new drug developers
K-defense sector
012450.KS
Hyundai Rotem
▾
HIGH
Moderna's COVID success warrants watching.
Park says Moderna was analyzed during the weekend program because its chart looked unusual, and it made large profits during COVID. He argues a company that performed well in the previous cycle has a higher chance of performing well again, so he placed it in the firm's model portfolio as an interesting watch item, though he does not put low-visibility clinical-stage names into client accounts.
MRNA WATCH
Avoid low-visibility Korean new drug developers.
Park says he generally avoids Korean biotech new drug development stocks for client accounts because their earnings visibility is too low and clinical outcomes are uncertain. This is a deliberate allocation stance rather than a one-stock criticism.
Korean biotech new drug developers AVOID
K-defense is top-tier global exporter.
Park highlights that Korea's global arms export ranking jumped from 12th to 4th and its market share rose from 2% to 6%, driven by KAI T50, Hanwha Cheongung2, Hyundai Rotem K2 and other systems. He interprets this as evidence Korean defense is already global top-tier and gaining further momentum.
K-defense sector LONG
K9 US contract breaks America open.
Hanwha Aerospace's US subsidiary Hanwha Defense USA won a US Army contract for K9 wheeled self-propelled howitzers, marking the first time a Korean defense company will supply a complete weapons system to the US. The contract has options up to 18 units and validates K9 reliability, rapid development speed, and long-term owner-family investment, opening a path into the US and NATO markets.
012450.KS LONG
K2 Poland follow-on shows defense demand.
Hyundai Rotem's K2 tank exports to Poland demonstrated Korea's delivery speed and led to a repeat order: the follow-on 180-unit, roughly 9 trillion won second implementation contract negotiation was completed this month, showing trust and expanding Korean defense presence in Europe.
Hyundai Rotem LONG
First submarine export expands HD Hyundai.
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is on the verge of its first submarine export after founding. It will complete basic design for Peru's next-generation 1,500-ton submarine by November, then move to contract and construction next year, extending cooperation from surface ships to submarines and securing a Latin America naval bridgehead.
329180.KS LONG
Buy KOSPI below its long-term trend.
Park says high interest rates are currently discounting stocks and creating a chance to buy value/quality shares cheaply. While high rates may persist for a while, he expects they will not keep climbing, and risk indicators such as VIX and high-yield spreads are not yet flashing danger, so the rate-driven correction is a seasonal event around midterm elections rather than a reason to turn bearish on KOSPI.
EWY LONG
Record buyback signal; shareholder returns rising.
SK Hynix announced a 40 trillion won buyback and full cancellation equivalent to about 3.3% of issued shares, the largest in Korean listed-company history. It also raised shareholder return from 'within 50%' to 'over 50%' of free cash flow, and with full-year FCF estimated near 180 trillion won the total return could reach 90-100 trillion won, signaling strong confidence and potentially changing stock market flow.
000660.KS LONG
Long-term Treasury yields should fall.
Park argues long-term US Treasury yields must eventually fall because high rates are already causing small-business closures in Korea and weakening US employment. As the economy slows, rates inevitably come down, so the recent spike in the 30-year yield is unlikely to continue at elevated levels.
TLT LONG
HIGH
02:09
Aug 20
Aug 20
000660.KS FLIP
EL 1ST
051900.KS
090430.KS
222800.KQ
▾
HIGH
Massive share buybacks will boost per-share value.
SK Hynix has announced a massive shareholder return policy, planning to use at least 50% of its cumulative free cash flow for returns. The early execution of a large share buyback and cancellation over the next three months demonstrates management's confidence in future cash flows and will continuously reduce the share count, boosting per-share value.
000660.KS LONG
Chinese inventory destocking ends, driving multiple expansion.
Estée Lauder's recent solid earnings indicate that the prolonged inventory destocking phase in the Chinese market is finally ending. The company is no longer relying on deep discounts and is returning to normal pricing, which will drive margin recovery and potential multiple expansion from 30x to 35-40x.
EL LONG
Global inventory clearance improves major cosmetics margins.
As global peers to Estée Lauder, major Korean cosmetics brands like LG H&H and Amorepacific should also benefit from the end of the global inventory destocking cycle. Their margins are expected to improve as inventory issues are resolved, although LG H&H's high exposure to offline channels in China remains a slight drag.
051900.KS WATCH
090430.KS WATCH
Substrate price hikes offer strong upside potential.
While Samsung Electro-Mechanics is a solid investment, its stock is heavily correlated with the broader memory cycle. Smaller substrate specialists like Simmtech and TLB are seeing even faster and stronger unit price increases for their products, offering a sharper edge and more direct upside from the current price hikes.
222800.KQ LONG
356860.KQ LONG
OEM/ODM companies offer safe cosmetics recovery exposure.
For investors who are unsure which specific cosmetic brands will win the market, investing in major OEM/ODM companies like Kolmar Korea and Cosmax is a highly effective strategy, as they manufacture products for most of the successful brands regardless of which one leads in sales.
161890.KS LONG
192820.KS LONG
Rising MLCC prices will drive earnings growth.
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is experiencing tight supply and exploding demand for MLCCs and FC-BGA substrates, driven by AI servers and EVs. With recent price hikes of 10-30% and operating margins expanding rapidly, earnings estimates are being sharply upgraded, offering about 50% upside to a conservative target price.
009150.KS LONG
HIGH
01:53
Aug 20
Aug 20
US healthcare/biotech ETF
MRNA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Watch biotech ETF's sector-wide new high
The U.S. healthcare/biotech ETF is also breaking to new highs, signaling that the biotech advance is not just Moderna-specific but sector-wide. The key question is whether the sector move is narrative-driven or already reflecting future earnings, so it is worth monitoring for continuity.
US healthcare/biotech ETF WATCH
Buy Moderna on revived mRNA growth story
Moderna is not just a COVID vaccine stock; its mRNA platform is expanding into flu vaccines and in vivo CAR-T cell therapy. The June FDA advisory committee voted 9:0 that the mRNA flu vaccine mRNA-1010 is effective in adults 50-60 and 65+, reviving approval expectations after the February BLA refusal. The mRNA-6007 in vivo CAR-T program could lower the time and cost of conventional CAR-T. Big pharma M&A such as AbbVie's Capstan deal and Eli Lilly's Orna deal validates the mRNA cell therapy platform. This creates a new post-COVID growth story, though the company is still unprofitable and investors should watch the August FDA decision and macro rates.
MRNA LONG
HIGH
00:26
Aug 20
Aug 20
2522.HK 1ST
1810.HK 1ST
005690.KS
MRVL 1ST
237690.KQ
▾
HIGH
High valuation fully prices in long-term growth.
Despite a successful IPO, Unitree Robotics' current valuation, with a forward PE of around 340x, already fully prices in its long-term growth potential up to 2030, leaving limited upside.
2522.HK AVOID
Q2 earnings beat and EV growth potential.
Xiaomi's Q2 earnings beat expectations with improved gross margins and higher smartphone ASPs. While EV margins dropped due to lower subsidies, delivery volumes are increasing, and future new models and overseas expansion offer significant growth potential. Memory price hikes are also less burdensome than expected.
1810.HK LONG
Moderna's success boosts domestic mRNA-related bio stocks.
Moderna's success in mRNA cancer vaccines could positively impact domestic bio companies related to mRNA raw materials, CMOs, and partner firms.
005690.KS WATCH
237690.KQ WATCH
950200.KQ WATCH
006280.KS WATCH
207940.KS WATCH
196170.KQ WATCH
Google partnership secures massive AI chip revenue.
Marvell issued warrants to Google as part of a custom AI chip co-development deal. If Google exercises all warrants, it implies massive revenue generation ($1.2B) that far outweighs the 7% potential share dilution, significantly boosting Marvell's growth potential.
MRVL LONG
SEC rules are positive, but resistance looms.
The SEC's new rules provide a clearer path for crypto fundraising and exemptions from securities regulations, which is positive for the ecosystem. However, strong resistance exists in the mid-$70k range, making it a potential area for short-term profit-taking.
BTC WATCH
High capex and negative cash flow risk dilution.
Nebius Group issued $4.5B in convertible bonds, diluting EPS by approximately 10%. With high capex needs for data centers and negative free cash flow, further capital raises and share dilution are likely, which will weigh on the stock price.
NBIS AVOID
Restructuring and recovering sales drive margin expansion.
Estee Lauder's Q2 earnings beat expectations with strong gross margins (75.5%). Restructuring efforts and product mix improvements are driving profitability, and sales in North America and China are recovering.
EL LONG
Chinese inventory clearance ends, boosting cosmetic margins.
Estee Lauder's strong earnings indicate that the Chinese market's inventory clearance is mostly over, allowing cosmetics to sell at normal prices and margins to recover. This positive trend should also benefit Korean cosmetic brands and OEM/ODM companies.
192820.KS LONG
271560.KS LONG
051900.KS LONG
090430.KS LONG
Rising MLCC prices and AI demand drive growth.
MLCC prices are rising rapidly (10-30% hikes) and supply is tight due to AI server and EV demand, leading to sharp operating margin improvements. FC-BGA for AI accelerators is also growing, driving explosive earnings growth expectations for Samsung Electro-Mechanics.
009150.KS LONG
Substrate price hikes outpace larger competitors.
Similar to Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Simmtech is seeing rapid price increases for its substrates and modules. The price hike is even faster and stronger than larger companies, making it an attractive edge play.
222800.KQ LONG
Massive share buyback reflects strong cash flow.
SK hynix announced a massive share buyback and cancellation program over 3 months, representing approximately 3.3% of outstanding shares. This reflects management's confidence in future free cash flow and will drive EPS growth and shareholder value.
000660.KS LONG
mRNA cancer vaccine success drives platform re-rating.
The successful Phase 3 clinical trial for its personalized mRNA skin cancer vaccine proves that Moderna's mRNA technology works for oncology, potentially re-rating the company from a COVID-19 vaccine maker to a broad cancer treatment platform.
MRNA LONG
HIGH
10:34
Aug 19
Aug 19
3x Semiconductor ETF
KORU
SOXX
▾
HIGH
Avoid 3x semiconductor ETF; decay destroys.
Park contrasts a plain 1x ETF tracking the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which rose from its 2022 high of 185 to 270 in 2024 and 655 recently, with the 3x semiconductor ETF, which collapsed from $74 to $6, recovered to $70, fell to $8, then hit $300 and is now $129. He argues the 3x product is gambling disguised as stock investment because leverage and volatility decay destroy value even when the underlying index uptrends, and it should be avoided or even banned.
3x Semiconductor ETF AVOID
Avoid KORU; leverage decay destroys value.
Park shows KORU, the 3x South Korea ETF, traded at $36 when KOSPI hit 2,600 in early 2018, fell to $2 during the 2020 COVID crash, and even when KOSPI reached 3,300 in 2021 the ETF was lower than when the index was at 2,600; it then collapsed to $1.35 and after a recent rally to $63 is still down roughly 72% from its high. This demonstrates structural 3x decay: the product fails to capture the long-term Korean index recovery and is a gambling-like destruction of capital.
KORU AVOID
Long 1x Philadelphia semiconductor ETF.
Park says ordinary retail investors can freely use the plain 1x ETF tracking the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which he calls excellent and shows is in a structural uptrend, rising from 185 at the 2022 high to 270 in 2024 and 655 recently. The edge is that owning the 1x semiconductor index avoids the volatility decay and catastrophic drawdowns of the 3x version.
SOXX LONG
HIGH
09:57
Aug 19
Aug 19
SOXL
KOO 1ST
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
MSTR
▾
HIGH
Leveraged 3x ETFs are destructive gambling
Park argues that 3x leveraged ETFs are not investment products but gambling products. He shows that while a 1x semiconductor index ETF made new highs, the 3x semiconductor ETF failed to recover its prior high due to volatility decay, and a Korean 3x leveraged KODEX remained far below its old high even as KOSPI advanced. He says these products should be banned.
SOXL AVOID
KOO AVOID
Samsung/SK Hynix liquidity crowding created bubble
Park says that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix absorbed market liquidity as investors sold losing positions to chase faster recovery in those two names. This created a bubble in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix while creating discounts elsewhere, and he resists calls to concentrate portfolios into them.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
MSCI removal forces Strategy passive selling
Park expects Strategy to be removed from MSCI indices. If removed, passive index-tracking funds would be forced to sell, with J.P. Morgan estimating about 3.9 trillion won or $2.8 billion of passive outflows, pressuring the stock and weakening the company's future Bitcoin buying capacity.
MSTR SHORT
KOSPI overheated; little upside until October
Park shows a long-term KOSPI chart with RSI and argues the market is currently overheated, similar to prior overheating phases. He says investors entering in June-July came at the wrong time and that returns are unlikely to be good until around October.
EWY AVOID
HIGH
02:32
Aug 19
Aug 19
BTC
TLT 1ST
German 30-year Bund
Japan 30-year JGB
French 30-year OAT
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin historically falls around midterm elections
Park flags that Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have repeatedly fallen in US midterm-election years: 2014 -30%, 2018 -74%, 2022 -64%. Many investors assume midterm stimulus prevents weakness, but the actual data shows the opposite, so crypto should not be treated as safe into the October election window.
BTC AVOID
Rising global yields pressure long-duration bonds
Choi notes that 30-year government bond yields in the US, Germany, France and Japan are climbing steeply, keeping pressure on equities. With yields trending higher, he says the bond side is showing underweight or reduced allocation behavior, supporting an underweight/avoid stance on long-duration sovereign bonds.
TLT AVOID
German 30-year Bund AVOID
Japan 30-year JGB AVOID
French 30-year OAT AVOID
Range-trade structural growth like defense
In a correction phase, Park says investors should range-trade only structural growth stories using valuation levels. He names defense as a clear structural growth sector that is not excessively expensive and can be bought on dips and sold on strength within its valuation box.
Korean defense sector LONG
Trim semiconductor overweight to market weight
Choi argues the semiconductor investment thesis has weakened for H2. H1 was driven by memory shortage, memory companies' rising AI status, and valuation re-rating; now valuation re-rating is gone, memory shortage remains but memory prices/cost pressure and potential competitors are negatives, so he recommends lowering semiconductor exposure to market weight rather than concentrating.
KS AVOID
SMH AVOID
Korean market rangebound correction until October
Park expects the Korean equity market to stay in a box-range correction until late October around the US midterm elections. He argues the market already pre-priced the semiconductor selloff, downside is cushioned by buy-the-dip demand, but upside is capped by changed sentiment, so it should be traded as a range rather than expecting a V-shaped breakout.
EWY WATCH
HIGH
00:34
Aug 19
Aug 19
1919.HK
AAPL 1ST
META 1ST
INTC 1ST
XLE 1ST
▾
HIGH
Share buybacks and rising freight rates boost stock.
COSCO Shipping is benefiting from share buybacks, cancellations, and rising freight rates, driving the stock higher.
1919.HK LONG
Lower capex burden provides resilience against high rates.
Apple is relatively resilient amid rising long-term treasury yields because it has lower capital expenditure and borrowing burdens compared to other AI hyperscalers.
AAPL LONG
Lawsuits and underinsured data centers raise uncertainty.
Meta faces financial uncertainty due to youth addiction lawsuits and reports that its AI data center investments are significantly underinsured.
META AVOID
Equity dilution and downgrades pressure the stock.
Intel is facing downward pressure due to equity dilution issues and target price downgrades from major investment banks.
INTC AVOID
High yields drive rotation into defensive sectors.
Defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, energy, and financials are benefiting from capital rotation out of tech stocks due to high long-term treasury yields.
XLE LONG
XLV LONG
XLF LONG
XLP LONG
Lack of catalysts and liquidity cap upside.
Bitcoin lacks strong catalysts and new liquidity. Historical trends during US midterm election years suggest weakness from late August to November, keeping it in a range between $66k and $70k.
BTC WATCH
High exports and low volatility support performance.
APR exhibits lower quarterly earnings volatility and a high export portion compared to large cosmetics peers, supporting solid stock performance.
278470.KS LONG
High rates pressure housing and remodeling demand.
Despite an earnings beat, Home Depot's outlook remains sluggish as high interest rates continue to pressure the housing market and remodeling demand.
HD WATCH
Strong Q2 results drive earnings consensus upgrades.
PCB and substrate companies are seeing upward revisions in earnings consensus following strong Q2 results.
009150.KS LONG
222800.KQ LONG
420770.KQ LONG
098460.KQ LONG
Preemptive volume securing drives freight rates higher.
HMM is benefiting from rising freight rates driven by preemptive volume securing ahead of expected tariff hikes.
011200.KS LONG
Fundamentals intact despite macro-driven recent sell-off.
The recent sell-off in memory semiconductors is driven by macro factors and crowded positioning, while the fundamental supply shortage remains intact. A rebound is expected around mid-September ahead of Q3 earnings.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
Box-range correction expected until late October.
The broad Korean market is expected to remain in a box-range correction until late October due to high global yields and US midterm election uncertainties, advising against chasing rallies.
EWY WATCH
US howitzer project selection drives valuation rerating.
Hanwha Aerospace was selected as the sole negotiator for a US self-propelled howitzer project, which could lead to a valuation rerating as it expands its US reference.
012450.KS LONG
Structural growth stocks suit box-range trading.
The defense sector consists of structural growth stocks that are well-suited for box-range trading during the current market correction.
079550.KS LONG
AI data center orders drive multiple expansion.
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services beat Q2 earnings expectations and is seeing expanding gas turbine orders for North American AI data centers, which is driving multiple expansion.
002353.SZ LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 18
Aug 18
US10Y
SMH
EWY
▾
HIGH
US 10-year above 4.7 caps Korean stocks.
The US 10-year Treasury yield above 4.7% acts as a hot-water threshold that grabs the Korean market's ankle. Even when semiconductors gap up, the Korean market gets sold off if yields are above 4.7%, so Korean equities struggle while that rate level persists.
US10Y WATCH
Semiconductor stocks likely range-bound for 1.5 years.
Despite AI-driven earnings support, semiconductor stock price volatility will continue because of interest-rate pressure and supply expansion noise from Changxin Memory. For the next year and a half, semiconductor stocks are likely to stay in a box range, so investors should trade cautiously, not chasing rallies or panicking on dips.
SMH WATCH
Buy quality assets during deep selloffs.
The best time to buy is when good assets go on deep bargain sale. The recent crash toward 2,520 was that kind of opportunity, and Chesley Investment Advisory bought KRW 10 billion to prove it. Raising cash by selling stocks at the bottom is not risk management; investors should learn a durable edge by buying quality assets in panic selloffs rather than chasing FOMO rallies.
EWY LONG
HIGH
08:50
Aug 18
Aug 18
EWY
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Buying good assets during crashes yields profits.
The recent market crash presented a rare opportunity to buy good assets at bargain prices, which is why his firm invested heavily; he expects a strong recovery and profitable outcome from buying the dip.
EWY LONG
AI semiconductors mirror the PC revolution's growth.
Despite warnings of a dot-com style bubble burst, AI semiconductors are currently generating real earnings and driving a structural shift akin to the PC revolution; while near-term volatility and range-bound trading are expected for the next 1.5 years, the long-term growth and supply shortages remain intact.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
01:09
Aug 18
Aug 18
EWY
▾
HIGH
Strong earnings and favorable exchange rates support KOSPI.
The Korean stock market is in a highly favorable environment because the KRW exchange rate has reversed its weakening trend, encouraging foreign investors to hold KRW-denominated assets. Furthermore, Korea currently boasts the highest earnings improvement rate globally and attractive PER valuations.
EWY LONG
HIGH
00:27
Aug 18
Aug 18
AMD 1ST
0981.HK 1ST
WDC 1ST
MU 1ST
LRCX 1ST
▾
HIGH
AMD benefits from Google collaboration and bonds.
AMD is seeing strong upward momentum driven by market speculation of a potential collaboration with Google on the next-generation TPU (V10 project) and a highly successful $4.75 billion corporate bond issuance, which demonstrated strong market confidence in its AI infrastructure role.
AMD LONG
SMIC benefits from AI demand and localization.
SMIC is operating at full capacity due to robust AI demand and China's aggressive semiconductor localization efforts. The company delivered a strong Q2 earnings beat with improving product mix and rising ASPs, prompting Goldman Sachs to significantly raise its target price, reflecting SMIC's position as China's irreplaceable foundry.
0981.HK LONG
Strong AI revenues drive memory semiconductor demand.
Memory semiconductor companies are rallying because strong AI service revenue run-rates from companies like Anthropic signal that hyperscalers will continue to aggressively purchase data center chips and memory to support AI monetization.
WDC LONG
MU LONG
000660.KS LONG
Memory profit growth drives equipment investment.
Semiconductor equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit directly as the improving profitability of memory semiconductor companies translates into increased capital expenditures and equipment investments.
LRCX LONG
ASML LONG
AMAT LONG
Alphabet is attractive ahead of FCF inflection.
Alphabet's heavy AI capital expenditures will cause its free cash flow to bottom around 2027, but FCF is projected to surge dramatically in 2028-2029. With a strong net cash position, no EPS dilution from share issuance, and a valuation at the bottom of its 1-year P/E range, it is an attractive turnaround candidate to watch as its FCF reaches an inflection point.
GOOGL WATCH
Rising shareholder returns will revalue holding companies.
Korean holding companies like GS are significantly undervalued because the value of their subsidiaries is heavily discounted due to historically low shareholder return rates (around 30%). As Korea's overall shareholder return rates increase, holding companies will be the biggest beneficiaries of this structural revaluation.
078930.KS LONG
Stronger Won and earnings growth support KOSPI.
The KOSPI is highly attractive because the Won/Dollar exchange rate trend has reversed in favor of a stronger Won, which will draw foreign capital. Furthermore, Korea boasts the highest earnings improvement rate globally, and market valuations have become cheap again following recent corrections.
EWY LONG
Reduced mining power sets up Bitcoin rally.
Bitcoin miners are increasingly shifting their power capacity toward AI data centers, causing their Bitcoin holdings to hit a 4-month low. This reduction in overall mining power increases the attractiveness and profitability for remaining miners, potentially setting up an 'empty house' rally for Bitcoin.
BTC LONG
Strong cash flow alleviates MicroStrategy dividend concerns.
MicroStrategy is successfully managing its dividend burden through strong cash flows and strategic capital allocation, such as selling common stock to purchase perpetual preferred stock. This alleviates market concerns about its debt obligations and supports its stock price.
MSTR LONG
HIGH
07:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
SOX
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield
KODEX Leverage ETF
KOSDAQ Index
EWY
▾
HIGH
Semis: rally into earnings, then final decline.
He expects the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to stay in a volatile right-shoulder range rather than breaking out because the Bollinger Band upper band is too extended and the MACD oscillator has turned negative, similar to the early stage of the 2021-22 semiconductor top. He would reduce semiconductor exposure into the strong October earnings from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, buy dips again because Q4 earnings should be strong, and then expects one more down leg next year when DRAM spot prices weaken and capacity supply increases, potentially breaking the prior low. The bearish analog is invalidated only if September Micron or Ambarella earnings push the index above its prior high and produce a buy signal near 14,000.
SOX WATCH
10-year yield must fall for bull market.
He argues the market cannot rally strongly while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield keeps rising; it just rose to 4.68%, and this yield is the key variable that must fall decisively. If the 10-year yield drops to the 4.4% handle, especially after the U.S. midterm elections, he expects a very strong bull market to begin.
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield SHORT
Vasily signal triggered; buy KODEX Leverage.
The Chesley system's Vasily buy signal has fired, and when this signal is applied to KODEX Leverage it has historically targeted about a 10% gain with a small maximum drawdown. The most recent signal on July 28-30 produced 25%, 43%, and 50% returns in different cases, and he believes this system will make money from this year into next year.
KODEX Leverage ETF LONG
KOSDAQ in bear market; avoid or escape.
Chesley AI cut its KOSDAQ allocation by three stages in June and told subscribers to escape; KOSDAQ has entered a bear market, and the KOSDAQ buy signal that appeared at the top immediately got trapped. He treats KOSDAQ as a bear market rather than a dip-buying opportunity.
KOSDAQ Index AVOID
KOSPI rebound to 50% retracement, September caution.
Foreigners' spot-futures positioning has turned positive again, so he expects the KOSPI rebound to grind higher toward a 50% retracement of the prior decline, but he warns to be cautious again in early September. This gives a short-term rebound setup with a defined seasonal caution point.
EWY LONG
HIGH
03:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
EWY
TIGER KOSDAQ 150 ETF
KOSDAQ
▾
HIGH
KOSDAQ odd years strong, even years weak
Korean equities show a strong odd-year/even-year seasonal pattern: KOSPI and KOSDAQ average returns in odd years are strongly positive, with KOSPI around +28.9% and KOSDAQ around +39.7%, while even-year KOSDAQ is weak or negative, so this pattern should be used to time Korean equity exposure.
EWY WATCH
Buy KOSDAQ 150 ETF through August-October
KOSDAQ has already collapsed about 50% from its high, and the steep May through July damage, combined with rate-driven biotech weakness, has pushed it into deep-value territory. Because November onward is seasonally strong, Park Se-ik argues for installment buying of a KOSDAQ 150 ETF such as TIGER KOSDAQ 150 over August, September, and October.
TIGER KOSDAQ 150 ETF LONG
KOSDAQ odd years strong, even years weak
KOSDAQ has already collapsed about 50% from its high, and the steep May through July damage, combined with rate-driven biotech weakness, has pushed it into deep-value territory. Because November onward is seasonally strong, Park Se-ik argues for installment buying of a KOSDAQ 150 ETF such as TIGER KOSDAQ 150 over August, September, and October.
KOSDAQ WATCH
HIGH
23:00
Aug 16
Aug 16
KRW
USD/KRW
JPY
USD/JPY
Korean Value Stocks
▾
HIGH
Korean won strengthens toward 1,350
The Korean won has already appreciated from around 1,550 to 1,400 per US dollar and should keep strengthening. Scott Bessent, now US Treasury Secretary, is a former currency hedge fund CIO who is signaling that Washington will not tolerate yen or won weakness because Asian currency weakness could force Japan to dump US Treasuries and destabilize US rates. Korea also narrowed its policy rate gap with the US to 1%, removing a key source of won weakness; a USD/KRW break of 1,400 opens the way toward 1,350.
KRW LONG
USD/KRW SHORT
Yen weakness will be contained
Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly signaled that further yen weakness beyond 160 will be resisted. Speculators are still shorting yen on the assumption that the BOJ cannot hike, but the BOJ is reported to be able to raise rates to 1.5%, and Bessent is effectively warning currency hedge funds not to short the yen. Therefore yen weakness is likely to be contained or reversed rather than extending toward 180-200.
JPY LONG
USD/JPY SHORT
Won-strength favors value and food stocks
Within Korean equities, the main beneficiaries of continued won strength should be undervalued value stocks and import-cost-sensitive sectors such as food and beverage. Food and beverage names were beaten down by wheat/flour costs and should benefit as a stronger won reduces imported input costs, while exporters become more neutral.
Korean Value Stocks LONG
XLP LONG
Rising Treasury yields threaten bond prices
Washington is trying to prevent a rise in US Treasury yields because Japan holds about $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries; if Tokyo sold $100-200 billion to defend the yen, 30-year Treasury yields could jump from 5.2% to 5.4-5.5% and damage the US bond market. With US debt interest already exceeding defense spending, rising yields are the main vulnerability, making long-duration Treasuries unattractive.
TLT AVOID
Strong won supports Korean stocks
A stronger Korean won is broadly positive for the Korean stock market. As USD/KRW breaks 1,400 and moves toward 1,350, Korean equities should benefit, although leadership may rotate rather than the existing semiconductor-heavy leadership simply continuing unchanged.
EWY LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 16
Aug 16
KOSPI 200 Index
KOSDAQ 150 Index
SPY
EWY
▾
HIGH
Bollinger breakout count gauges Korean market energy.
Taband built a program tracking the daily number of KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 stocks breaking above their upper Bollinger Band as a market energy gauge. The signal is not leading, but the trend and 5-day average of the breakout count help indicate whether market energy is expanding or contracting. Monthly averages were 25/21 in January/February, 6 in March during the conflict, 17 in April, and only 9/4 in May/June even while the index rose on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. He suggests the range and slope matter more than the absolute number, and that two consecutive months below 10 could justify raising cash. In August the 5-day average broke above 10 from August 4 and now exceeds 20, suggesting strong market energy.
KOSPI 200 Index WATCH
KOSDAQ 150 Index WATCH
Rate seasonality supports Q3 caution, Halloween strength.
Jo Jae-wan presents US policy-rate seasonality as a reason behind third-quarter equity market weakness. Since 1914, August has had the most rate hikes, while November has had the most rate cuts and December/January have had the second-most cuts. He links this to the conventional Q3 weakness in US and synchronized Korean equity markets, as the US federal fiscal year ends and policy uncertainty rises. He also notes that the Halloween strategy of entering from late October into April aligns with the November-January rate-cut tendency.
SPY WATCH
KOSPI falls before Chuseok, rises after.
Jo Jae-wan presents US policy-rate seasonality as a reason behind third-quarter equity market weakness. Since 1914, August has had the most rate hikes, while November has had the most rate cuts and December/January have had the second-most cuts. He links this to the conventional Q3 weakness in US and synchronized Korean equity markets, as the US federal fiscal year ends and policy uncertainty rises. He also notes that the Halloween strategy of entering from late October into April aligns with the November-January rate-cut tendency.
EWY WATCH
HIGH
09:14
Aug 16
Aug 16
KOSDAQ Index
Korean semiconductor materials/parts/equipment
006400.KS 1ST
TECK 1ST
▾
HIGH
Liquidity rotation favors KOSDAQ strongly.
After the July 31 financial regulator restrictions on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix single-stock leveraged ETFs, liquidity rotated toward KOSDAQ. KOSDAQ trading value increased, credit burden fell from about 11 trillion won to the 5 trillion won range, institutions and individuals bought aggressively, and KOSDAQ rose 24% over four trading days.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
Semiconductor materials/parts/equipment sector is leading.
Among KOSDAQ 200 and KOSDAQ 150 stocks that rose more than 8% this week, 122 names were concentrated in semiconductor materials, parts, and equipment. The rotation showed semiconductor materials/parts/equipment as the strongest area, followed by cosmetics, robots, biotech, power equipment, and secondary batteries.
Korean semiconductor materials/parts/equipment LONG
Buy SDI, the secondary battery leader.
Samsung SDI is fundamentally better than LG Energy Solution. SDI has prismatic battery leadership, a seven-quarter earnings turnaround, no large overhang from its largest shareholder Samsung Electronics, and a 15.2% stake in Samsung Display worth over 10 trillion won that can be monetized to fund future investment. LG Energy Solution is weighed down by potential overhang from LG Group's stake, so the better secondary-battery leader to own is Samsung SDI.
006400.KS LONG
TCK's SiC ring monopoly benefits NAND.
TCK is a near-monopoly maker of SiC rings used in semiconductor etch and deposition, especially essential for high-layer 3D NAND. It holds 70-75% share, with competitors entering lower 100-layer segments while TCK dominates 200-layer and 300-layer-plus production with a 2-3 year technology gap. SiC rings are recurring consumables replaced about every 15 days, high-layer NAND increases chamber count and shortens replacement cycles, inventory is only about 0.7 months, and 2026-2027 volume/ASP estimates support P and Q growth. Valuation scenarios show about 25% base-case upside and 60% bull-case upside, with downside to about 209,000 KRW if fab investment delays.
TECK LONG
HIGH
03:00
Aug 16
Aug 16
SMCI
AI infrastructure build-out
CRWV
NBIS 1ST
Neo-cloud providers
▾
HIGH
SMCI buyable but monitor accounting trust.
Super Micro Computer's latest results showed gross margin recovering from 6.3% to 9.9% and then 17%, while management gave aggressive FY27 revenue guidance of $65B-$72B. Claire interprets this as proof that AI server demand remains strong and that SMCI can restore profitability, making the stock buyable, but she stresses investors must keep monitoring the accounting and trust issue because the 2024 EY auditor resignation caused a 30% one-day crash and internal control weaknesses remain.
SMCI LONG
AI infrastructure cycle broadening, stay long.
This week's strong AI news in power, servers, cloud, optical communications, and semiconductors should not be viewed as separate stories. CoreWeave's $104.2B backlog and Super Micro's FY27 revenue guidance of $65B-$72B together show that the AI infrastructure investment cycle is spreading and continuing across the entire value chain, not just semiconductors.
AI infrastructure build-out LONG
Watch CoreWeave efficiency despite huge backlog.
Park sees CoreWeave as the number one neo-cloud provider with the largest share and diversified customers. The market treated its heavy capex as overinvestment, but Nebius has already shown that neo-cloud can make money, and NVIDIA-led funding should help hyperscalers sign more GPU contracts with neo-cloud providers. Park also notes CoreWeave's ROI payback period has shortened from about 2.8 years to about 2.5 years, so he wants to accumulate CoreWeave for family accounts once timing and price are attractive.
CRWV WATCH
Nebius proved neo-cloud profitability, prefer it.
Nebius proved that a neo-cloud company can actually make money, which validates the rental compute model for the whole group. Park thinks near-term Nebius looks somewhat better than CoreWeave because Nebius is already profitable at smaller scale, and he expects CoreWeave to follow.
NBIS LONG
Neo-cloud rental model has merit.
Park argues enterprise AI is shifting from closed token-based models toward semi-open and rental-based compute, similar to the sovereign AI direction. That makes the neo-cloud rental model attractive because CoreWeave, Nebius and similar providers can quickly supply GPU capacity that large cloud vendors cannot flexibly offer, and non-China international customers are likely to adopt this model as depreciated GPU infrastructure becomes cheaper and usable longer.
Neo-cloud providers LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
005930.KS FLIP
000660.KS FLIP
MU FLIP
SNDK 1ST
MAGS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Memory price momentum is decelerating sharply.
Memory semiconductor leaders such as Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Micron and SanDisk led the market, but Morgan Stanley estimates show DRAM/NAND quarter-over-quarter price gains slowing from 16%/13% in Q3 to 6%/3% in Q4. Because stocks trade on the rate of change, memory price momentum, profit improvement momentum and stock momentum should decelerate even if absolute profitability remains good. The recent drop was amplified by leverage and credit, so the speaker says investors should keep the decelerating momentum in mind and reduce sectors passing their peak.
005930.KS AVOID
000660.KS AVOID
MU AVOID
SNDK AVOID
M7 cash flow trough precedes rebound.
M7 companies invested heavily in capex, which depressed cash flow. The speaker views this as a peak-capex, trough-cash-flow setup, with cash flow likely troughing around 2027. Since stock prices lead fundamentals, M7 stocks could bottom and rebound several quarters before the cash-flow trough, making them candidates for adding exposure as other sectors pass their peak.
MAGS LONG
US market recovery extends into year-end.
The speaker believes the July fear-driven market has normalized and is returning to a more normal regime. He says investors who correctly adjust to sector inflections can recover losses during the remaining August through November period, supporting a broader US equity recovery into year-end.
SPY LONG
Software stocks may lead rotation.
As memory momentum decelerates, the speaker sees room for rotation into previously neglected big tech and software. Software stocks that recently reported good earnings are rebounding, though it is still unclear which software names will lead for the rest of the year.
IGV WATCH
HIGH
11:34
Aug 15
Aug 15
EWY 1ST
AI infrastructure supply chain
Korean semiconductor materials/equipment
KORU 1ST
009150.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
KOSPI may reach 7,500-7,800
Foreigners have turned to net buying in KOSPI futures and spot, and US macro data supports Fed policy easing. He expects the August monthly candle to become bullish and sees KOSPI closing between 7,500 and 7,800 by the end of August.
EWY LONG
AI infrastructure investment cycle broadens
AI strength is not just a semiconductor story; the market is treating AI as a full infrastructure growth cycle spanning power, servers, cloud, optical, networking and semiconductors, with investment spreading across the value chain.
AI infrastructure supply chain LONG
Korean semiconductor materials sector leads
Korean semiconductor materials, components and equipment names led the weekly top 20 as money rotated from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix leveraged trades into KOSDAQ and semiconductor supply-chain stocks, supported by foreign and institutional buying.
Korean semiconductor materials/equipment LONG
Korean cosmetics sector looks toppy
Most cosmetic stocks corrected with upper wick charts, leaving only large profitable leaders, and the sector historically peaks in July-August, so caution is warranted.
KORU AVOID
Samsung Electro-Mechanics is recovery leader
After the market crash, Samsung Electro-Mechanics recovered fastest among former leaders as AI server MLCC and high-performance substrate demand expectations returned, and Morgan Stanley switched its top pick from Samsung Electronics to Samsung Electro-Mechanics.
009150.KS LONG
CoreWeave must prove efficient growth
CoreWeave has explosive revenue and $104.2B backlog with contracted power, but depreciation is growing faster than revenue and active power is only 1.5GW. The stock is a watch item until execution efficiency and operating margin improve.
CoreWeave WATCH
AI data center storage demand strong
Memory and storage names rallied because Sandisk showed strong AI data center demand and expanded its buyback, while Micron, Seagate and Western Digital gained on expectations that memory prices and data center storage demand will stay strong longer.
SNDK LONG
MU LONG
STX LONG
WDC LONG
Neocloud rental model is being validated
The neocloud rental model is being validated as enterprise AI shifts toward sovereign/open rental compute. Nebius has already shown profitability and has a stronger chart trend, while CoreWeave is the largest neocloud and could follow.
NEBIUS WATCH
Geopolitical oil risk lifts energy stocks
US-Iran tensions pushed Brent up about 6% for the week, and Strait of Hormuz supply disruption fears lifted energy stocks such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
CVX LONG
XOM LONG
Korean won should continue appreciating
Korea's rate gap with the US narrowed to 1%, and Bessent's memo signals the US will not tolerate excessive Asian currency weakness. He expects USD/KRW to break 1,400 and eventually move toward 1,350 as the won appreciates.
USD/KRW LONG
Won strength favors domestic consumer stocks
Won strength benefits undervalued domestic consumer and value stocks, especially food and beverage names, while exporters become relatively neutral.
Korean domestic consumer/food stocks LONG
TCK dominates high-end NAND SiC rings
TCK supplies SiC rings essential for NAND etch and deposition, has 70-75% market share, near-monopoly in 300-layer plus high-end NAND, strong replacement demand, very low inventory, and 2026-2027 revenue and earnings growth supports 25-60% upside.
TECK LONG
Japanese yen should keep strengthening
Bessent's memo indicates the US will not allow yen weakness beyond 160-164 because it could destabilize Japan and US rates, and BOJ may hike toward 1.5%. This supports yen appreciation against the dollar.
FXY LONG
Super Micro is buyable but risky
Super Micro Computer's gross margin recovered from 6.3% to 17%, and it issued aggressive FY27 revenue guidance of $65-72B on strong AI server demand, but accounting credibility remains a key risk to monitor.
SMCI LONG
Samsung SDI beats LG Energy Solution
Samsung SDI is preferred over LG Energy Solution because its chart broke moving averages without losing the 5-day line, it has prismatic battery strength, no LGES-style overhang, and can monetize its Samsung Display stake for future investment.
006400.KS LONG
HIGH
03:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
XLK
COHR
LITE
222800.KQ 1ST
Korean secondary batteries
▾
HIGH
AI stocks have upside until 40% market penetration.
AI market penetration is currently at 22%. Historically, with technologies like smartphones, sectors continue to see strong stock performance until penetration reaches about 40%. The AI rally is only in the 2nd or 3rd inning of adoption, leaving significant room for upside.
XLK LONG
US bans on Chinese transceivers would harm Lumentum.
The recent rally in Lumentum and Coherent, driven by potential US sanctions on Chinese optical transceivers, is a short-term momentum play. Chinese firm Zhongji Innolight controls 70% of the 1.6T market, and Lumentum relies on supplying EML chips to them. A US ban would disrupt the entire AI supply chain and harm Lumentum's revenue.
COHR AVOID
LITE AVOID
Simmtech is undervalued despite surging SoM PCB prices.
Simmtech is experiencing a massive valuation re-rating as it dominates the high-margin SoM (System-on-Module) PCB market. Module PCB prices have surged 82% year-over-year, far outpacing previous IT upcycles, yet the stock still trades at a P/E of less than 20x, making it highly undervalued.
222800.KQ LONG
US protectionism will drive a Korean battery turnaround.
Korean secondary battery and ESS companies are poised for a turnaround similar to the Korean shipbuilding sector two years ago. With Chinese companies holding 70-75% of the North American ESS market, US protectionist policies and tariffs against China will force a shift toward Korean battery makers.
Korean secondary batteries LONG
Memory, optical, MLCC, and ESS are next bottlenecks.
Korean secondary battery and ESS companies are poised for a turnaround similar to the Korean shipbuilding sector two years ago. With Chinese companies holding 70-75% of the North American ESS market, US protectionist policies and tariffs against China will force a shift toward Korean battery makers.
ESS LONG
Nvidia's financing partnerships reignite AI hardware momentum.
Nvidia is acting like a bank by partnering with major asset managers like BlackRock, Blackstone, and KKR to provide financial support for companies needing to buy GPUs and build AI infrastructure. This state-level financial backing reignites momentum for AI hardware.
NVDA LONG
Memory, optical, MLCC, and ESS are next bottlenecks.
As GPU supply bottlenecks are resolved, the next areas for excess returns in AI infrastructure will be memory, optical components, MLCCs, and ESS (Energy Storage Systems). These sectors will benefit as hyper-scalers seek cheaper and more efficient ways to scale AI data centers.
SMH LONG
Samsung Electronics has bottomed after a 49% correction.
The AI era is transforming memory semiconductors from cyclical commodities into customized assets. With HBM being custom-built for specific AI chips, Korean memory makers like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix will enjoy structural, long-term supply cycles, insulating them from traditional broad memory downcycles.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
SK Hynix leveraged and inverse ETFs
009150.KS
004170.KS
079550.KS
005380.KS FLIP
▾
HIGH
Avoid leveraged and inverse SK Hynix products.
Leveraged and inverse products on highly cyclical stocks like SK Hynix act like gambling and destroy wealth, as seen by massive losses in both directions during recent volatility. They should be avoided entirely except for very short-term trades during extreme panic selling.
SK Hynix leveraged and inverse ETFs AVOID
MLCC demand drives Samsung Electro-Mechanics' strong rebound.
The stock experienced a severe 65% drop after being overvalued, but it is now rebounding because MLCCs are essential for AI, autonomous driving, and robotics. It faces heavy resistance around the 160,000 to 180,000 KRW level.
009150.KS LONG
Solid earnings and foreign buying support upside.
Despite a 50% drop from its peak, the company reported solid earnings, and foreign investors have consistently increased their stake to 29%, suggesting the stock has further upside potential as earnings support the valuation.
004170.KS LONG
Foreigners keep buying despite price drops.
Foreign investors are continuously accumulating shares even when the stock price drops, indicating strong underlying demand and a positive outlook.
079550.KS LONG
Foreigners are steadily reducing stakes in automakers.
Foreign ownership is steadily decreasing from a peak of 41%, indicating that foreign investors do not view the automobile sector favorably right now, despite positive narratives like Boston Dynamics.
005380.KS AVOID
Strong rebound with weak hands washed out.
The stock is performing exceptionally well, up 67% from its recent bottom. The lack of market chatter suggests that weak hands have already sold, leaving room for continued strength.
214450.KQ LONG
KOSPI is cheap and poised for rebound.
The KOSPI index is still very cheap at current levels (around 2,630) and has only recovered about 40% of its recent drop. A strong rebound is expected to continue through the end of August, provided US interest rates stabilize.
EWY LONG
Foreigners are continuously buying Kumho Tire.
The stock chart shows an unusual and promising upward pattern, supported by continuous and steady buying from foreign investors.
073240.KS LONG
Anthropic stake protects SK Telecom from dropping.
The stock is holding up well during market volatility and is unlikely to drop significantly because of the underlying value of its stake in the AI startup Anthropic.
017670.KS LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
000660.KS
FXY
EWY
▾
HIGH
Watch SK Hynix shareholder return.
Listing itself is not bad if management commits to shareholder returns. SK Hynix should monetize part of its Kioxia stake and return proceeds through dividends or buybacks; similar logic applies to any Solidigm US listing. Such commitments would reduce the Korean discount.
000660.KS WATCH
Buy Japan high-dividend stocks.
Japan's yen looks extremely undervalued based on Big Mac and tonkatsu curry indices, suggesting fair value much stronger than 159 per dollar. Rather than just buying yen, Park prefers Japanese high-dividend stocks to receive dividends now and benefit from yen appreciation later.
FXY LONG
Buy Korean equities after panic crash.
Korean equities have fallen roughly 40% in a panic similar to the COVID crash, not a structural collapse. Park argues history repeats: after such fear, the market rebounds sharply, and next year should bring a 'chimaek party'; investors should buy now and watch for rebound leaders.
EWY LONG
HIGH
08:06
Aug 14
Aug 14
FXY 1ST
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Buy undervalued yen via Japanese dividend stocks.
Big Mac and tonkatsu curry indices imply Japanese yen fair value near 62-80 per dollar versus a spot rate of 159, showing extreme undervaluation. Park says he is inclined to buy Japanese high-dividend stocks instead of yen directly, collecting dividends while waiting for yen appreciation to provide both yield and currency gains.
FXY LONG
Samsung foldable momentum is strong.
Samsung's Galaxy G Fold 8 is a new passport-style foldable that is lighter, thinner and differentiated, with record domestic pre-orders and strong uptake among younger women and in Japan. Park views this form-factor momentum positively and suggests the foldable wave could continue, giving Samsung a first-mover advantage before Apple enters.
005930.KS LONG
Solidigm listing hinges on shareholder returns.
Park argues Solidigm's Nasdaq listing is not inherently bad for SK hynix. If Hynix sells part of the stake, it can secure US investment capacity; the key is whether Hynix clearly commits to returning proceeds to existing shareholders through buybacks or dividends. Without such shareholder-return commitments, the listing looks like governance discount; with them, it should be a non-issue.
000660.KS WATCH
HIGH
01:57
Aug 14
Aug 14
AMAT
LRCX
CCL
009150.KS
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
Semiconductor equipment decline is normalization opportunity.
After extreme semiconductor sector crowding unwound, semiconductor equipment names sold off alongside memory stocks even though fundamentals remain supportive. Applied Materials is about 40% below its high and Lam Research fell from roughly 440 to 250 after valuations reached around 50x. Choi views this as normalization rather than fundamental damage: China is still buying legacy semiconductor equipment, and advanced logic and DRAM equipment demand is growing.
AMAT LONG
LRCX LONG
Trade Carnival between $25 and $33.
Falling oil prices are lifting Carnival Cruise again. Park reiterates a range-trading strategy: buy in tranches when it breaks below $25, and sell in tranches as oil declines push the stock up into the $28 to $33 zone.
CCL LONG
Simmtech re-rating with substrate price surge.
Simmtech's module PCB price has surged from 0.7 million won per square meter to 1.28 million won in the second quarter, and substrate prices are up 42% since last year. This is much faster than the 2019-2022 IT boom. Simmtech is the global number one in SoC AM by share and capacity, is now seeing earnings inflection, and is undergoing a re-rating from low-value to high-value. Samsung Electro-Mechanics is also seeing MLCC and substrate price momentum, and Choi argues it is too early to sell or trim these names.
009150.KS LONG
222800.KQ LONG
Custom HBM makes Korean memory structural buy.
The AI hardware regime is becoming memory-centric: AI chips are designed from the start with customized HBM, making Korean memory makers similar to a foundry for custom memory. Even if the commodity memory cycle dips in 2026 or 2027, customized HBM demand from US big tech and AI chip developers should keep Samsung Electronics and SK hynix in a structural uptrend, so share price drops are buying opportunities.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
00:41
Aug 14
Aug 14
LENOVO 1ST
HOOD 1ST
CCL
KOSPI 200
005930.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Strong earnings beat driven by infrastructure growth.
Lenovo reported a strong earnings beat driven by its infrastructure business and AI PC market leadership. The infrastructure segment saw 98.4% YoY revenue growth with improving margins, leading to expected target price upgrades and making its current valuation attractive.
LENOVO LONG
Benefits from crypto regulatory clarity and tokenization.
As AI infrastructure investment expands, tokenization and perpetual futures markets are growing rapidly. Robinhood is well-positioned to benefit more than Coinbase if regulatory clarity improves, making it an attractive asset in this structural shift.
HOOD LONG
Falling oil prices benefit cruise operators.
Falling oil prices provide a favorable macro tailwind for cruise operators. Carnival presents a good trading opportunity to accumulate below $25 and take profits in the $28 to $33 range.
CCL LONG
Foreigners are aggressively betting on market upside.
Foreign investors have aggressively bought over 2 trillion won in the spot market over two days and are positioning for an upward move in the options market. Investors should bet on the upside, aligning with foreign institutional flows.
KOSPI 200 LONG
Memory is becoming a structural infrastructure asset.
Memory semiconductors are transitioning from simple consumables to infrastructure assets with longer economic lifespans. This structural shift, driven by AI demand, will lead to sustained earnings power, longer cycles, and a re-rating of memory makers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
Post-election period will trigger a strong bull market.
While September may see minor technical adjustments due to seasonal liquidity drains and tax-related selling, the October earnings season will refocus the market on strong fundamentals. The period following the US midterm elections will trigger a robust bull market extending into the first half of next year.
SPY LONG
EWY LONG
Strong fundamentals and AI demand support uptrend.
Despite a post-earnings after-hours drop due to profit-taking, Applied Materials shows strong fundamentals with 25% YoY revenue growth and expanding margins. With robust demand in advanced logic, DRAM, packaging, and legacy nodes in China, the company expects record earnings through 2027, supporting a long-term uptrend.
AMAT LONG
Broken 200-week moving average signals short-term weakness.
Bitcoin has broken below its 200-week moving average of around $64,000, which will now act as strong resistance. Combined with negative market maker netflows and spot ETF outflows, short-term weakness is highly likely.
BTC SHORT
High-margin SO-DIMM demand drives valuation re-rating.
Simmtech is experiencing a rapid margin expansion, jumping from 3.2% to 12.2% in a single quarter, driven by surging demand and pricing power in high-margin SO-DIMM module PCBs. As the global leader in this segment, the company is undergoing a structural valuation re-rating while still trading at an attractive P/E under 20x.
222800.KQ LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 13
Aug 13
KOSDAQ Composite Index
QUAL 1ST
FXI 1ST
▾
HIGH
KOSDAQ won't break July low; rallies later.
KOSDAQ has rebounded but will not go up in a V-shape; it may pull back one more time, but the late-July low should not break because buyers are waiting. After roughly two to two-and-a-half months of patience through August-October, KOSDAQ should rise strongly from year-end into next year.
KOSDAQ Composite Index LONG
Buy quality stocks during market panics.
During difficult markets, good and quality assets trade at bargain-sale prices; buying them in those panic periods leads to recovery to prior highs. Volatility mainly shakes out weak holders, so disciplined investors should use selloffs as buying opportunities in quality stocks.
QUAL LONG
Chinese stocks attractive; stock picking essential.
Chinese companies are attractive because many have high ROE, low valuations, and rising shareholder returns; government-related capital now supports corporate growth through dividends and buybacks rather than real estate. The market is attractive, but stock picking is essential because broad Chinese index performance can be poor.
FXI LONG
HIGH
07:53
Aug 13
Aug 13
KOSDAQ Index
KOSPI 200 Index
China ETFs
TIGER China Semiconductor FactSet ETF
KWEB 1ST
▾
HIGH
KOSDAQ low holds; rallies into 2026.
Despite the recent sharp rebound, KOSDAQ will likely not recover in a straight V-shape and could be pressed once more, but Park believes the late-July low will not break; after holding through August-October, KOSDAQ should rally strongly from late this year into next year as buyers return.
KOSDAQ Index LONG
Foreigners positioned for KOSPI 200 upside.
During the recent panic selling, foreign investors were positioned for upside in KOSPI 200 options and have again profited from the rebound; Park sees this as evidence of continued upward positioning and warns against betting on the downside.
KOSPI 200 Index LONG
Allocate 30% to China for diversification.
Lee recommends keeping about 30% of the total portfolio in China equities because Korean investors are overconcentrated in domestic memory semiconductors; China equities can reduce portfolio risk during high volatility, while Beijing's stabilization measures and semiconductor supply-chain self-sufficiency support a gradually rising Chinese index over the medium/long term.
China ETFs LONG
China semiconductor self-sufficiency powering ETF gains.
China's semiconductor sector is a state-driven self-sufficiency story supported by National Big Fund phases, DUV equipment localization and the display/battery/EV industrialization playbook; Lee identified Cambricon early, and his China semiconductor and STAR-market ETFs have ridden the theme, with semiconductor materials, components and equipment as the most undervalued area.
TIGER China Semiconductor FactSet ETF LONG
KWEB LONG
688256.SS LONG
SMH LONG
Allocate 30% to China for diversification.
Park argues Chinese companies often look attractive because they combine high ROE with low PER and increasingly shareholder-friendly policies, supported by government-linked capital; however, he stresses stock picking is critical, noting his prior Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect trade returned about 38% while index funds lost, and his Korea-China-US focus fund currently holds about 20% in Chinese equities.
FXI LONG
Mirae Asset becomes real investment bank.
Mirae Asset Securities delivered record second-quarter net profit near KRW 1.9tn, topping major banks, driven by a large SpaceX mark-to-market gain and broad growth across brokerage, trading, wealth management, pension assets, and overseas units; Park argues it has emerged as a genuine investment bank rather than a cyclical broker, with AUM and pension flows creating a snowballing growth structure.
006800.KS LONG
HIGH
05:25
Aug 13
Aug 13
SMH
MSC 1ST
023530.KS 1ST
005930.KS 1ST
069960.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
AI hardware regains leadership via new financing.
With GPUs and memory having already experienced massive price appreciation, the next areas for excess returns in AI infrastructure are technologies that solve power and efficiency bottlenecks, specifically optical components, MSC/MCC, and Energy Storage Systems (ESS).
SMH LONG
Optical, MCC, and ESS solve AI bottlenecks.
With GPUs and memory having already experienced massive price appreciation, the next areas for excess returns in AI infrastructure are technologies that solve power and efficiency bottlenecks, specifically optical components, MSC/MCC, and Energy Storage Systems (ESS).
MSC LONG
ESS LONG
Department stores face weak consumption and costs.
Department store stocks like Lotte Shopping and Hyundai Department Store are currently unattractive due to unfavorable exchange rates hurting foreign tourist sales, weak domestic consumption, and unexpected subsidiary costs.
023530.KS AVOID
069960.KS AVOID
Temasek's direct investment benefits Samsung and Hynix.
Temasek's push for direct investment in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is a positive catalyst for these stocks, as sovereign wealth funds typically hold long-term positions with low turnover.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
AI hardware regains leadership via new financing.
AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks are regaining market leadership over AI software, driven by Nvidia's initiatives to partner with major asset managers and Wall Street banks to finance GPU purchases for clients.
NVDA LONG
US turnaround and inbound demand boost Cosmax.
Cosmax is expected to maintain high operating margins of around 9% in the second half of the year, breaking its historical negative seasonality, driven by a turnaround in its US business and strong domestic inbound cosmetic demand.
192820.KS LONG
HIGH
00:28
Aug 13
Aug 13
Foxconn Industrial Internet
BTC
SMH 1ST
035900.KQ 1ST
COHR
▾
HIGH
AI server shipments drive massive revenue growth.
Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) is benefiting from massive AI server and 800G switch shipments to major tech clients like Nvidia, Amazon, Google, and Apple. While its operating margins are low and unlikely to expand significantly, its massive scale creates a strong barrier to entry, ensuring steady revenue growth and making it a solid quality stock.
Foxconn Industrial Internet LONG
FIMA repo liquidity boosts alternative fiat assets.
To strengthen the Yen without crashing global markets, Japan will likely use the Fed's FIMA repo facility to borrow dollars against US Treasuries and buy Yen. This mechanism will inject massive dollar liquidity into the financial system, which will flow into alternative fiat assets like Bitcoin and Gold, driving a long-term bull market for them.
BTC LONG
GLD LONG
AI focus shifts to high-efficiency bottleneck solvers.
As AI datacenter buildouts continue, the market is shifting its focus from expensive GPUs and memory to components that offer high efficiency and solve power/data bottlenecks at a lower cost. The next hardware areas poised to generate excess returns are optical components, MLCCs, and Energy Storage Systems (ESS).
SMH LONG
Weak earnings and IP risks limit upside.
JYP Entertainment's Q2 earnings severely missed expectations due to weak merchandise sales, and its future outlook is deteriorating. The company faces significant risks from TWICE's contract renewals and Stray Kids' upcoming military enlistments, without strong new rookie groups to fill the revenue gap, making the stock completely unattractive for investment.
035900.KQ AVOID
Wafer capacity expansion drives strong margin growth.
Coherent is demonstrating strong operating leverage driven by its datacenter and communications segment, which now accounts for 80% of revenue. The early completion of its 6-inch InP wafer capacity expansion will significantly reduce unit costs and boost margins. With orders booked through 2028 and strong demand for optical transceivers, the stock remains highly attractive despite short-term profit-taking.
COHR LONG
US turnaround and domestic demand drive growth.
Cosmax delivered record Q2 earnings, driven by strong domestic skincare demand from inbound tourists and the first-ever profit from its US subsidiary. The structural turnaround in the US and a diversified client base suggest that its historical weak seasonality in Q3/Q4 margins may disappear this year, justifying a higher valuation target.
192820.KS LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
USD/KRW
SPY FLIP
▾
MED
USD/KRW likely to decline further
The USD/KRW exchange rate broke its uptrend in July, with the won strengthening even as the Korean market plunged. US and Japanese intervention to stabilize the yen supports further won strength, so there is still downside risk for USD/KRW.
USD/KRW SHORT
Avoid US equities due to won strength
Korean investors face a double headwind from US equities: taxes and potential currency losses if the won continues to strengthen. Even if the US market rises, the exchange rate can wipe out returns, making US stocks unattractive right now.
SPY AVOID
MED
09:12
Aug 12
Aug 12
EWY
004170.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
KOSPI 6,300 is cheap on huge profits
KOSPI at 6,300 level is clearly cheap because Korean firms are generating massive profits: 300 trillion won last year, 900 trillion this year, and likely 900-1,000 trillion next year even if semiconductor prices decline from the second half of next year.
EWY LONG
Department stores cheap despite profit surge
Department store stocks like Shinsegae are undervalued after a sell-off driven by subsidiary loss concerns, while core department store profits are surging on foreign tourist boom and strong luxury sales. Structural growth in department stores is solid and earnings will keep rising, making the stock cheap.
004170.KS LONG
Kioxia stake monetization positive for SK hynix
SK hynix effectively holds a ~14% stake in Kioxia via convertible bonds, worth around 35 trillion won based on current market cap of 243 trillion yen. Monetizing this stake by selling the CBs could bring substantial cash and unlock value, a positive catalyst for SK hynix.
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
01:43
Aug 12
Aug 12
LITE 1ST
COHR 1ST
AXTI 1ST
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
AI optical transition boosts Lumentum earnings
Lumentum is at the center of a structural shift from copper to optical interconnects in AI data centers, driving explosive demand for its EML laser chips and optical transceivers. Supply is significantly short of demand (30%+ gap), creating strong pricing power and expanding margins. Recent earnings massively beat consensus, forward guidance was raised well above estimates, and the company expects continued margin expansion and demand growth. The optical bottleneck will persist until at least 2028, supporting long-term earnings growth and a re-rating.
LITE LONG
Coherent similarly benefits from optical demand
Coherent is a vertically integrated optical company covering both EML chips and optical transceivers, giving it a similar exposure to the AI data center optical boom. Given Lumentum's stellar results, Coherent is expected to report comparably strong numbers and share the same positive direction in demand, margins, and guidance. The company will be discussed in depth in the next briefing.
COHR LONG
Indium phosphide substrate bottleneck supports AXT
AXT is the critical supplier of indium phosphide wafers, which are the essential substrate for EML laser chips used in optical transceivers. China controls 70% of the indium phosphide wafer supply, and AXT is the key company in that chain. Lumentum recently signed a 6-year long-term contract with AXT to secure supply, but even with that deal, supply may still fall short due to surging demand. The bottleneck in substrates gives AXT strong pricing power and guaranteed demand as optical buildout accelerates.
AXTI LONG
Samsung Electronics at historical max drawdown bottom
Samsung Electronics has historically never fallen more than 50% from its high, even during the 2008 crisis and the 2022 downturn. The stock has just hit a 49% drawdown from its peak, precisely at that historical support level. A prominent analyst (Kim Dong-won) is calling the bottom, stating that all bad news is priced in and that the stock can rally up to 60% from the low. The technical and historical pattern suggests a high-probability bottom and a mean-reversion opportunity.
005930.KS LONG
HIGH
00:30
Aug 12
Aug 12
Cosmecca Korea
Cosmax
327260.KQ
COHR
005930.KS
▾
HIGH
Korean cosmetics boom on earnings beats.
Korean cosmetics stocks are in a powerful earnings-driven uptrend. Cosmax and Cosmecca Korea both reported strong earnings surprises: Cosmax surged after-hours on a beat, and Cosmecca Korea jumped 15% the next day. The sector is benefiting from solid export demand and brand competitiveness. Even traditionally slow Q3 is showing QoQ growth in the Korean unit, signaling sustained momentum. Valuation multiples are expected to rise alongside accelerating earnings, making the sector one of the strongest in the market right now.
Cosmecca Korea LONG
Cosmax LONG
Optical supply chain play with high growth.
RF Materials is a Korean pure-play optical component supplier making pump laser packages for Lumentum. The stock has surged 133% from its July low, but is still valued at just 18x 2028 forward P/E versus a global optical peer average of 45x. It has strong medium-to-long-term earnings visibility backed by Lumentum's capacity expansion and new CPO (co-packaged optics) demand. Although the stock is volatile and recently hit investment warning level, its position as a bottleneck player in the AI optical supply chain makes it a high-conviction name worth monitoring for dips.
327260.KQ WATCH
Lumentum peer, similar strong earnings expected.
Coherent is the other major player alongside Lumentum in EML laser chips and optical transceivers, with a vertically integrated model. Coherent is expected to report earnings shortly, and given Lumentum's blowout results and similarly tight supply-demand dynamics, the report could mirror the strength. The speaker anticipates a similar positive direction, making it worth watching ahead of the release.
COHR WATCH
Correction over; massive shareholder return ahead.
Samsung Electronics shares have corrected 49% from their peak, a decline magnitude that historically marks a bottom. In past major drawdowns (2008, 2022, 2024), the stock never broke 50% and subsequently rallied 60% on average. KB Securities' Kim Dong-won argues the sell-off is over, massive shareholder return policies (total 600-700 trillion won over 3 years, implying 7-15% dividend yield) will be a strong catalyst, and memory supply shortage will persist through 2028 due to 3-year construction lead times. The host endorses the view, noting the stock has already started to bounce.
005930.KS LONG
Kioxia stake strengthens NAND market dominance.
SK Hynix ADR rallied 4.7% after it became the largest indirect shareholder of Kioxia (14.19% stake) through a special purpose vehicle following Toshiba's stake reduction. This strengthens SK Hynix's dominance in the global NAND flash memory market, adds synergies, and comes on top of its existing momentum from HBM leadership. The market is now pricing in improved competitive positioning in the memory supply chain.
000660.KS LONG
Global No.1 OEM, 2H recovery, cheap.
Shenzhou International is the world's largest sportswear OEM/ODM with major clients Nike (28% of revenue), Adidas (20%), Uniqlo (20%). After a weak 1H 2025 where revenue dropped ~38-43% YoY and earnings missed consensus by 20-30% due to FX losses, low utilization at new Vietnam factory, and raw material cost pressure, the outlook for 2H improves as new factory ramps up, customer share expands, and FX stabilizes. The company has maintained a 60% dividend payout ratio, implying a ~4.8% dividend yield, and trades at just 9-10x forward earnings. With the stock heavily sold off and the worst likely priced in, the speaker explicitly says 'now is a very good time to invest' for a recovery play.
2313.HK LONG
Structural optical shift driving exponential growth.
Lumentum is a key bottleneck supplier in the AI optical connectivity value chain, manufacturing EML laser chips and optical transceivers that convert electrical signals to light. The structural shift from copper to optical cabling inside hyperscale data centers is driving explosive demand. In its latest quarter, revenue surged 109% YoY to $1B, gross margin expanded to 50.4% from 37.8% a year ago, operating margin hit 36.6%, and EPS of $3.23 crushed estimates. Guidance was well above consensus, with revenue midpoint of $1.25B and operating margin around 40%. Management stated demand exceeds supply by 30%, capacity additions from new fabs won't meaningfully come online until 2028, and they are already signing long-term wafer supply agreements to secure upstream bottleneck materials. The company has strong pricing power, high barriers, and long-term secular tailwinds.
LITE LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 11
Aug 11
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
SK hynix is a bargain after 60% drop.
SK hynix is a buying opportunity after a 60% price drop. The decline mainly reflects cyclical fears in commodity memory (DDR4, DDR5, NAND), but the company's HBM business is structurally growing with AI data center demand, holding a 56.4% market share. Valuation is attractive at 5.5x forward P/E, below US memory peers, and long-term supply agreements (LTA) support sustained revenue. The cyclical risk is already largely priced in, so accumulating now is profitable.
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
08:09
Aug 11
Aug 11
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Buy SK Hynix for AI memory dominance.
SK Hynix is the best AI memory stock according to Motley Fool, with dominant 56.4% HBM market share, low forward P/E of ~5.5x compared to Micron (12x), and the recent sell-off driven by market sentiment rather than fundamentals, creating a bargain entry. AI data center expansion ensures structural HBM demand and a long memory super-cycle, while the cyclical portion of the business has already been largely priced in after the sharp correction.
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
02:19
Aug 11
Aug 11
XLK 1ST
TSM
Korean shipbuilding sector
NVDA
Korean ship engine makers
▾
HIGH
AI penetration low, room to run.
AI market penetration is only 22%, and historically strong stock gains continue until around 40% penetration; the sector remains in an early growth phase and has significant upside ahead.
XLK LONG
TSMC 18.6x PE is attractive.
TSMC holds a near-monopoly in advanced foundry, its forward PE of 18.6x is attractive for a quality franchise, and a long-term buy-and-hold should deliver above-market returns each year.
TSM LONG
Shipbuilding earnings visibility supports upside.
Korean shipbuilders have strong earnings visibility with orders locked in through 2028, operating margins are expanding from 13.5% to 21.4%, and stable input costs support a steady uptrend in fundamentals, making long-term holding rewarding.
Korean shipbuilding sector LONG
Nvidia PE 19.8, quality hold.
Nvidia has transformed into a quality stock with PE 19.8x, generates massive free cash flow (on pace for $200B annually), can finance its ecosystem customers, and deserves a long-term hold for above-market returns.
NVDA LONG
Engine makers levered to data centers.
Within shipbuilding, engine makers have superior growth potential due to data center demand and can maintain or expand valuation multiples after the recent pullback, making selective engine plays preferable to pure shipbuilders.
Korean ship engine makers LONG
Cosmetics ODM cheap, re-rating ahead.
Korean cosmetics ODM companies -- Cosmecca Korea, Cosmax, and Hankook Kolmar -- are trading at depressed multiples (12-13x forward PE) after an industry-wide derating, while strong export data and earnings momentum suggest a valuation re-rating is likely.
192820.KS LONG
161890.KS LONG
241710.KQ LONG
KOSPI weak Sept, rally from Oct.
KOSPI historically faces headwinds in early September due to US tax-related selling and seasonal patterns, but should recover strongly from late September through October as earnings season begins and foreign buying returns.
EWY LONG
HIGH
22:16
Aug 10
Aug 10
688256.SS 1ST
TSM 1ST
329180.KS 1ST
NVDA
CCL 1ST
▾
HIGH
China's Nvidia with strong growth potential
Cambricon Technologies is China's leading AI GPU designer, benefiting from forced domestic substitution amid US sanctions. The company is in the early stages of high revenue and profit growth, with analysts projecting a 70% upside based on market expansion and long-term earnings estimates. The main risk is easing US-China tensions, which could reduce the urgency for domestic chips.
688256.SS LONG
Dominant foundry at cheap valuation, buy
TSMC has a near-monopoly on advanced chip manufacturing with all AI and in-house chip designers forced to use it. Solid earnings momentum and a forward PER of 18.6x make it attractive as a quality compounder. Long-term buy-and-hold should deliver market-beating returns.
TSM LONG
Data center engine orders drive growth
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries secured a record 1 trillion won engine order for a US data center project, extending visibility to 2030. Supply shortages in ship engines and the high-value power generation segment drive significant earnings upgrades. The stock remains undervalued on forward multiples.
329180.KS LONG
AI ecosystem center, buy on weakness
Nvidia remains the central orchestrator of the AI ecosystem, with powerful free cash flow and a newly launched $500bn financing platform to support customers. Even after recent declines, its PER of 19.8x is reasonable for a high-growth quality stock. The structural AI trend sustains the long case.
NVDA LONG
Buy Carnival under $25 amid oil volatility
Oil price spikes due to geopolitics push Carnival Cruise shares lower, but oil will inevitably retreat. When Carnival falls below $25, it is a buying opportunity; sell when prices recover. This seasonal see-saw can generate approximately 30% annual returns.
CCL LONG
Strategy dilution benefits STRC, shorts MSTR
Strategy (MSTR) is heavily diluting common shareholders via continuous at-the-market share sales to fund preferred stock buybacks (STRC), while buying back STRC to support its price. This relative value shift favors a pair trade: long STRC (beneficiary of buybacks) and short MSTR (dilution loser).
STRC LONG
MSTR SHORT
Beauty ODM with strong earnings, cheap
Cosmecca Korea delivered a sharp Q2 earnings beat with 40% revenue growth, raised full-year guidance again, and is expanding with indie brands and new categories. The stock trades at only 12x forward earnings, a discount to peers, despite stronger momentum. A re-rating to historical highs is likely.
241710.KQ LONG
HIGH
10:00
Aug 10
Aug 10
005930.KS
000660.KS
▾
HIGH
Buy top-tier chips on market dips.
Top-tier Korean semiconductor stocks Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are resilient and will recover from market-wide selloffs. When the KOSPI drops sharply (e.g., 40%) and these blue-chip names decline along with the market, averaging down is an effective long-term strategy because they are dominant industry leaders and their eventual recovery will turn a lower average cost into strong returns.
005930.KS LONG
000660.KS LONG
HIGH
05:54
Aug 10
Aug 10
012450.KS
064350.KQ 1ST
000660.KS FLIP
005930.KS
▾
MED
Korean defense firms benefit from US procurement
US weapons inventory is rapidly depleting due to ongoing conflicts, with Patriot missile stock falling below 1,700 units and Patriot/Sad supplies taking years to replenish. The Pentagon is urgently pushing defense contractors to accelerate production. Korean defense companies such as Hanwha Aerospace and LIG Nex1 are well-positioned to benefit from this demand, making them attractive buys when their stock prices dip.
012450.KS LONG
064350.KQ LONG
Top-tier Samsung, SK hynix always recover
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are top-tier semiconductor leaders that will eventually recover from any drawdown. Investors should only buy industry-leading stocks and hold them long-term, as their quality ensures eventual price recovery and sustained growth.
000660.KS LONG
005930.KS LONG
MED
02:01
Aug 10
Aug 10
006400.KS
LITE
COHR
AMAT
▾
HIGH
Korean battery turnaround like shipbuilding
Korean battery makers (Samsung SDI, LG Energy Solution) are in a turnaround similar to Korean shipbuilders two years ago. US policies are increasingly restricting Chinese batteries, leaving Korean companies as the main beneficiaries. ESS demand is the fastest solution to power bottlenecks, with higher ASP and margins driving an earnings recovery. The situation mirrors the early stages of the shipbuilding upcycle where policy and market shifts turned sentiment and numbers positive.
006400.KS LONG
Optical interconnects benefit from NVIDIA design
Lumentum and Coherent are gaining attention because NVIDIA is reportedly redesigning AI accelerators to use less HBM and rely more on optical interconnects. If the bottleneck from optical connectivity proves severe, ASP, revenue growth, and profitability for these optical component suppliers could improve significantly. This earnings season their results could confirm that trend and validate the negative sentiment on memory.
LITE LONG
COHR LONG
Strong earnings momentum for AMAT
Applied Materials is expected to report strong earnings, continuing the positive trend seen in semiconductor equipment makers like Lam Research. Solid results from equipment peers suggest AMAT will also deliver good numbers.
AMAT LONG
HIGH
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