If I Had Known About Bollinger Bands in June! How to Use Them Properly From Now On | Park Se-ik & Jo Jae-wan

Summary

The panel reviews a member-built Bollinger Band upper-breakout count for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 as a market energy gauge. Park Se-ik explains the Chuseok holiday effect in which KOSPI tends to fall before Chuseok and rise afterward. Jo Jae-wan adds US rate-change seasonality showing August hikes and November-January cuts, supporting third-quarter caution and the Halloween strategy.

• A member presents a program tracking daily Bollinger Band upper-breakout stock counts across KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150.
• Monthly average counts fell from 25/21 in January-February to 6 in March and 9/4 in May-June, even while the index was supported by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix.
• The indicator is treated as a market energy gauge rather than a leading signal, using 5-day averages and ranges.
• Park Se-ik notes the Chuseok effect: KOSPI tends to decline in the five trading days before Chuseok and rise in the five trading days after.
• Jo Jae-wan shows that since 1914, August has had the most US rate hikes, while November has had the most cuts and December-January the second-most cuts.
• The rate pattern is linked to third-quarter equity weakness and to the Halloween strategy from late October into April.