From Semiconductors to Optical Communications? Comprehensive Analysis | Park Se-ik Senior Managing Director & Chesley Investment Advisory [Morning Brief / 26.08.12.Wed]

Summary

Park Se-ik and Choi Ho analyze Lumentum's blowout earnings as a proxy for the structural shift to optical interconnects in AI data centers, highlighting supply bottlenecks and valuing the supply chain. They then discuss RF Materials as a domestic Korean beneficiary with sole-supplier status, and debate NVIDIA's HBM4 configuration change, concluding Samsung Electronics may be near a historical bottom.

• Detailed breakdown of Lumentum's earnings beat, margin expansion, and strong guidance driven by AI optical demand
• Exploration of the optical supply chain bottleneck, especially indium phosphide wafers from AXT and EML laser duopoly by Lumentum/Coherent
• Introduction of RF Materials as a sole Lumentum pump laser supplier in Korea, with attractive valuations despite recent rally
• Preview of Coherent's upcoming earnings, expecting similar positive direction to Lumentum
• Interpretation of NVIDIA's potential HBM4 memory reduction as a cost-optimization move, not a severe blow to memory makers
• Technical and historical analysis showing Samsung Electronics often bottoms at a 50% drawdown, now at 49% with a bottom call from a notable analyst