The US Treasury yield must fall for a bull market to begin | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik

Summary

Park Se-ik reviews the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and argues it is in a volatile right-shoulder phase similar to 2021-22, with rallies into October earnings to sell and a likely final down leg next year. He stresses that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield must fall to around 4.4% for a strong bull market to start. His system's Vasily buy signal supports a KODEX Leverage long, while KOSDAQ remains in a bear market and a KOSPI rebound toward a 50% retracement carries early-September caution. The session is a market/timing update rather than a bottom-up stock-picking session.

• Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded but Bollinger Band upper band remains extended and MACD is negative, so Park expects range/right-shoulder behavior.
• He plans to reduce semiconductor exposure into October earnings and buy any post-earnings dip before a possible final down leg in 2026.
• The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.68% is the key barrier; a drop to 4.4% after U.S. midterms would support a strong bull market.
• The Chesley Vasily signal fired and has historically targeted around 10% gains on KODEX Leverage with recent 25-50% returns.
• KOSDAQ was downgraded to bear market status in June, and the system still signals escape/avoid.
• Foreigner spot-futures positioning turned positive, suggesting a grind higher toward a 50% retracement before early-September caution.
• He recommends seasonal risk management in July-October and not forcing trades.