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16:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
US long-end Treasuries
EMLC 1ST
DBC 1ST
EMB 1ST
SPY
▾
HIGH
Fed will hold long-end yields down.
The Fed and Treasury are coordinating to signal fiscal discipline while actually doing what is needed to hold down long-end interest rates, including Treasury market backstops and QE. Warsh is likely playing the hawkish good-cop role while actual policy drifts dovish.
US long-end Treasuries LONG
El Nino hurts emerging markets most.
El Nino is not primarily a US inflation story but will create severe droughts and floods in Australia, Brazil, the Mediterranean and parts of Asia. Emerging markets are almost certain to face more inflation and worse economic outcomes, making the bigger trade an emerging market currency and debt trade rather than commodities.
EMLC AVOID
EMB AVOID
Commodity weaponization likely raises prices.
Protectionism, global conflict and commodity hoarding are sequestering supply. El Nino may create commodity haves and have-nots, and the haves will withhold or weaponize commodities rather than reallocate them, likely raising net commodity prices.
DBC LONG
US equity markets are too big to fail.
Markets have become so large relative to fiscal and monetary flows that signaling and market movement matter more than actual policy size. Equity markets are roughly $150T public and $300T public and private, so a 20% rally creates $50-60T of new collateral. That makes equity markets too important to fail and forces policymakers to manage them supportively.
SPY LONG
Buybacks support Treasury liquidity and prices.
The Treasury buyback program is only about $48B a year in a $30T Treasury market, so it cannot determine rates or shape the yield curve. Its real purpose is to improve liquidity in off-the-run issues and support Treasury bond prices across the spectrum, signaling that US debt managers will keep the Treasury market liquid.
TLT LONG
HIGH
15:38
Aug 30
Aug 30
HE=F
USD 1ST
DBB 1ST
WEAT 1ST
TLT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Commodity uptrends support trend-following diversification.
Alan says August showed good trend-following gains on the commodity side, naming zinc, wheat, lean hogs and copper as markets that have been rising. He sees strong commodity trends as an encouraging diversification signal for trend-following and portfolio allocation.
HE=F LONG
DBB LONG
WEAT LONG
COPPER LONG
Fiscal dominance favors gold, bitcoin over dollar.
Alan says debt sustainability concerns and erosion of institutional norms make unorthodox policies and financial repression more likely. That regime shift is positive for gold and bitcoin and negative for the US dollar.
USD SHORT
GLD LONG
BTC LONG
Bonds are now poor equity diversifiers.
Alan notes the bond-equity correlation has flipped from negative 0.5 last decade to positive 0.3 this decade, and debt sustainability concerns mean bonds will be less reliable diversifiers for equities. Fixed income also faces financial repression and real return risk in the new regime.
TLT AVOID
Watch yen for intervention-driven unwind risk.
The U.S. intervention in the yen was very rare, including selling euros and buying yen and opening a FIMA facility for Japan. Alan reads it as acute U.S. sensitivity to rising Treasury yields and reluctance to let a large Treasury holder sell, but warns the 1998 episode shows intervention can produce a violent carry unwind, so USD/JPY is worth monitoring.
FXY WATCH
Ten-year yields pressured by deficits, AI capex.
Alan argues 10-year Treasury yields near 5% are not unusual given strong growth and above-target inflation. The move is driven by real yields as large government deficits and AI capex increase competition for capital, so yields have fundamental upward pressure.
10-Year US Treasury Yields LONG
Watch equities for debt-driven yield shock.
Alan highlights the combination of high US equity valuations and high debt levels: an equity decline would worsen the debt trajectory, and if Treasury yields break above 5% and ratchet higher it could be the shock that breaks the equity market, so US equities are a key risk to monitor.
SPY WATCH
Commodity futures offer attractive long-run returns.
Alan highlights AQR's long-run analysis showing an equal-weighted basket of commodity futures has generated about a 3% geometric return over cash, translating to roughly 6.8% nominal, which he says would be attractive for allocations.
DBC LONG
Managed futures attractive in new regime.
Alan points out trend following has annualized near 7.5% this decade versus under 2% last decade, has become negatively correlated with both bonds and equities, and with cash rates around 3.5-4%, even modest Sharpe ratios make managed futures competitive versus traditional asset classes.
Managed Futures / Trend Following LONG
HIGH
17:13
Aug 29
Aug 29
VTI 1ST
IWM
UST 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own low-cost broad market equity index.
Booth argues that professional managers generally cannot beat the market after fees, and that uncertainty is what creates long-run equity returns. He says almost everyone should have some money in public markets, bought inexpensively through a broad market portfolio, because the market rewards participation in human ingenuity and economic competition, with stocks returning about 10% annually through the Depression, World War II, inflation regimes, and COVID.
VTI LONG
Include small-cap equities in diversified portfolio.
Booth explains that Dimensional's original thesis was not simply that small caps would outperform, but that investors should not put all their equity money in large companies. He says investors ought to hold stocks of large companies and small companies, treating small-cap exposure as part of a properly diversified long-term equity allocation.
IWM LONG
Diversify globally beyond concentrated US market.
Booth notes that the US market has become concentrated in the largest stocks, such as the Magnificent Seven. He says a global portfolio of US and non-US equities does not have nearly that concentration, so investors should diversify globally rather than own only US large-cap concentrations.
UST LONG
HIGH
15:30
Aug 23
Aug 23
Korean equities
FXY
COPPER
WTI
Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bonds
▾
HIGH
Korean equities showed bubble; avoid.
Mark flags the Korean stock market as a bubble that had a huge run-up followed by a horrific decline, treating it as a warning sign of overvaluation and fragile risk appetite.
Korean equities AVOID
Yen carry unwind remains unresolved imbalance.
Mark sees the yen carry trade unwind and official yen intervention as evidence of a macro imbalance in currency markets that has not been fully played out, creating more volatility and trend opportunities in the yen.
FXY WATCH
Low copper inventories enable extreme moves.
Mark argues that commodity markets get extreme moves when inventories and buffer stocks are very low. He ties the recent LME copper spread squeeze to low warehouse buffer stocks and says if users need copper and cannot pull supply, copper can experience extreme price spikes and backwardation.
COPPER WATCH
Dwindling oil buffers risk price blowoff.
Mark says China and the US have been drawing down oil inventories and buffer stocks to smooth prices, but once those buffers are gone there is no cushion and oil or refined products could see a real blowoff price. He frames this as a key risk to monitor.
WTI WATCH
Treasury buybacks stabilize long-end liquidity.
Mark explains that the Treasury buyback program, increased from about $2bn to $4bn a month, buys back off-the-run issues and reissues on-the-run paper, adding liquidity and stabilization to the long end but also signaling a dealer capacity problem.
Long-Term U.S. Treasury Bonds WATCH
Treasuries no longer reliably safe liquidity.
Mark argues that Treasury market plumbing is fragile: there is no cash exchange, primary dealers are capital-constrained by regulation, hedge funds are marginal buyers using highly leveraged basis trades financed in repo, and Treasuries failed to act as a safe asset in March 2020. He says investors may need to avoid them if liquidity discounts reappear.
TLT AVOID
HIGH
17:30
Aug 20
Aug 20
SPY
XLK 1ST
Artificial intelligence equities
LQD 1ST
Long-duration government bonds
▾
HIGH
Overweight US equities especially technology AI
In the current supply-driven regime, growth exposure via equities remains the core of portfolios, and BlackRock remains overweight US equities on balance, particularly technology and artificial intelligence exposures.
SPY LONG
XLK LONG
Artificial intelligence equities LONG
Favor income credit over duration bonds
With bonds no longer diversifying as they once did, portfolios should shift toward stable income from corporate credit, emerging market credit, and private credit and infrastructure across public and private markets.
LQD LONG
EMB LONG
PAVE LONG
BIZD LONG
Long-duration bonds no longer diversify portfolios
Because supply-driven inflation risks have changed the stock-bond relationship, long-duration government bonds no longer provide the same diversification they did in the 2010s; their role is now income rather than duration.
Long-duration government bonds AVOID
AI memory stocks cheap; demand outstrips supply
AI buildout companies at strategic choke points, especially memory firms trading under 10 times forward earnings, do not look like a late-1990s bubble; although bottleneck earnings may fade, demand still outstrips supply and sustainable earnings should support a healthy trajectory and eventual multiple re-rating.
Memory stocks LONG
SMH LONG
Use market-neutral hedge funds for diversification
Diversification is scarce in today's market, so investors should add market-neutral, low-net hedge fund strategies and liquid alternatives to provide portfolio diversification and stability that bonds used to provide.
Market-neutral hedge funds LONG
Liquid alternative strategies LONG
Systematic multi-strategy hedge funds core allocation
Within hedge fund allocations, a strong multi-strategy capability, especially systematic, belongs at the core because it increases breadth, improves the information ratio, and allows real-time optimization across individual alpha streams.
Multi-strategy hedge funds LONG
Systematic multi-strategy hedge funds LONG
Traditional 60/40 portfolio needs replacement
The traditional public-market 60/40 stock-bond portfolio no longer works because bonds have lost their diversifying role; portfolios should replace it with growth, income across public and private credit, and diversifying market-neutral strategies.
Traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio AVOID
Portable alpha separates beta from alpha
Investors increasingly want portable alpha solutions that separate passive beta from a market-neutral long/short alpha engine, unlocking a better beta plus alpha combination than concentrated long-only equity mandates.
Portable alpha strategies LONG
Long-only active equity alpha constrained
Long-only active equity strategies are challenged because concentrated equity markets constrain alpha; investors are moving out of them toward portable alpha and long/short market-neutral approaches that can use both long and short positions.
Long-only active equity strategies AVOID
HIGH
16:30
Aug 17
Aug 17
SG CTA Index
MSCI World Index
WTI 1ST
FXY
DBC 1ST
▾
HIGH
CTAs offer all-weather alpha beyond crises.
Andrew argues CTAs have had an extraordinary 12 months, with the SG CTA Index up 23 percent versus MSCI World up 21 percent and bonds up 2 percent, showing that trend following generates all-weather alpha across equities, commodities, currencies and rates rather than only crisis alpha.
SG CTA Index LONG
Long equities after Liberation Day was right.
Being long equities after Liberation Day was a contrarian right trade relative to fundamental investors, and trend models captured it with substantially lower beta, contributing strong CTA returns.
MSCI World Index LONG
Crude oil squeeze supports long exposure.
Crude oil has a potential supply squeeze and was right to buy early; it remains one of the key bullish commodity trends in CTA portfolios alongside geopolitical energy moves.
WTI LONG
Yen downtrend contributed with intervention risk.
The yen had a strong downward trend that contributed nicely to CTA P&L, and the intervention-driven reversal caused only limited damage because risk management contained it, leaving intervention risk as a key setup to monitor.
FXY WATCH
Active commodity strategies improve inflation protection.
Active commodity strategies blend trend, carry and curve structure to mitigate roll costs and offer inflation protection, responding to the commodity super cycle and portfolio theory that commodities are diversifiers during inflation.
DBC LONG
Non-trend CTA strategies offer little value.
Andrew argues non-trend and short-term CTA strategies are not core return drivers; short-term models look attractive on a chart but become zero-Sharpe exercises due to overtrading, and adding carry or other non-trend components has not improved the overall Sharpe ratio.
Short-Term Traders Index AVOID
Model portfolio has gone short gold.
Tom says his trend model portfolio has actually gone short gold and is generating performance, suggesting CTAs are adapting to the new environment rather than remaining long the earlier precious-metals trend.
GLD SHORT
HIGH
16:28
Aug 14
Aug 14
Electric power
Equities
PSP 1ST
SKYY 1ST
MAGS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Follow superpower priorities: AI, defense, power
The world is split into US/China competing to dominate AI, defense, and electric power; reshoring and economic nationalism mean investors should follow the priorities of these superpowers.
Electric power LONG
AI LONG
Higher nominal growth favors risk assets
Higher nominal GDP growth from the new inflation regime is good for equity markets, real assets, and private equity, requiring a shift in strategic asset allocation away from a low-inflation mindset.
Equities LONG
PSP LONG
Avoid hyperscaler overspenders; seek AI beneficiaries
The AI capital expenditure cycle will likely repeat the telecom/fiber overinvestment pattern: the current Mag7 hyperscalers are overspending and may become future losers, so investors should be selective and look to beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending.
SKYY AVOID
MAGS AVOID
Healthcare, financials, small caps lead broadening
AI productivity gains are already translating into margins; healthcare and financials are leading and small caps are outperforming large caps as the market broadens after mega-cap tech leadership.
XLV LONG
IWM LONG
XLF LONG
Alphabet, Amazon cloud growth accelerates
Cloud computing is an early beneficiary of AI spending and is reaccelerating; Alphabet and Amazon have cloud businesses growing at startup-like rates despite their size.
GOOG LONG
AMZN LONG
Earnings growth supports tech bull market
This is an earnings bubble, not a price bubble: Nvidia earnings are growing faster than its stock, mega-cap tech is cheaper than at the start of the year, and the NASDAQ 100 trades below its 10-year average P/E; strong earnings growth supports the bull market until growth decelerates.
NVDA LONG
QQQ LONG
Cut sovereign bonds, add real diversifiers
Sovereign bonds offer poor real returns because inflation erodes coupons and government leverage is the bubble; correlations with equities have risen, so they have cut sovereign bond allocations aggressively and prefer equities, hedge funds, investment-grade bonds, gold and commodities as diversifiers.
TLT AVOID
Hedge funds LONG
Investment Grade Bonds LONG
Avoid AI-disrupted outsourcing and software
AI disruption is creating clear losers: Indian IT outsourcing stocks are being hammered and US software is losing competitiveness because of AI, which is also why the Indian market is shrugging despite a decent economy.
Indian IT outsourcing AVOID
US Software AVOID
China tech innovation remains attractive
China is a top global player in AI, EVs, and robotics with an open-weight AI ecosystem, and Beijing is now supporting the local equity market; they keep a smaller but promising allocation to Chinese tech newcomers despite volatility.
KWEB LONG
Commodity imbalances favor uranium, copper, gold
There is a commodity supercycle driven by supply-demand imbalances: uranium is undersupplied versus nuclear demand, copper faces a similar imbalance, rare earths benefit from strategic competition, and gold and silver also benefit from supply-demand dynamics.
URA LONG
COPPER LONG
SILVER LONG
REMX LONG
Follow superpower priorities: AI, defense, power
Defense is a structural theme because war is becoming more uncertain and many countries need to catch up on defense spending; the sector had lagged and is now showing improving margins, revenue growth, and interesting stories in Europe and the US.
ITA LONG
Biotech benefits from AI, pharma M&A
Biotech should benefit from AI shortening drug testing cycles and from big pharma facing patent cliffs; large pharma companies need new drugs and will partner with or acquire biotech companies.
XBI LONG
Higher nominal growth favors risk assets
Gold is a store of value protecting against fiscal dominance and money debasement; G7 countries must debase, emerging market central banks are shifting reserves from Treasuries to gold, and gold has outperformed fiat currencies, so the long-term uptrend should continue despite volatility.
GLD LONG
HIGH
16:00
Aug 09
Aug 09
DBMF 1ST
▾
HIGH
Trend following protects during equity crises.
Trend following serves as a critical portfolio diversifier because it can go short equities and bonds, has historically exhibited negative correlation to equities during left‑tail events, and offers capital efficiency through futures. In an environment where AI‑driven equity risks are elevated and bonds may fail to provide protection (due to persistent inflation limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates), trend following’s lack of a long-term bias and ability to follow price trends make it uniquely positioned to protect portfolios when traditional diversifiers correlate.
DBMF LONG
HIGH
16:45
Aug 07
Aug 07
XLE 1ST
PSP 1ST
Multi-strategy hedge funds
CTA/managed futures strategies
▾
MED
Traditional energy equity offers compelling value.
Traditional oil and gas equity investments became compelling as capital fled the sector for non-economic reasons such as ESG pressures and governance constraints, causing fundraising difficulties. The team increased exposure to private energy equity a couple of years ago, favoring equity over credit because improved financing conditions made credit less attractive.
XLE LONG
Private equity secondaries benefit from forced sales.
Forced selling of high-quality private assets by large institutions due to endowment tax uncertainty, liquidity needs, and retail investor impatience created attractive secondary market opportunities. The team has been a net buyer in private equity secondaries over the last two years to capture discounted assets.
PSP LONG
Multi-strategy hedge funds deliver uncorrelated returns.
Multi-strategy hedge funds (pod shops) can generate absolute returns above 8% with high Sharpe ratios, low correlation, and stable streams. Despite high fees and occasional crowding risks, they play a core role in the diversifier bucket as a differentiated, absolute-return-oriented allocation.
Multi-strategy hedge funds LONG
CTA strategies are challenging to underwrite.
CTA/managed futures strategies have become commoditized; return factors are easily replicated at lower cost, while less conventional CTAs resemble black boxes that are hard to underwrite. As a result, the endowment currently holds no allocation and finds it difficult to fit these strategies into the portfolio.
CTA/managed futures strategies AVOID
MED
16:00
Aug 02
Aug 02
000660.KS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Levered ETFs destroy wealth via volatility drag
The 2x levered ETF on SK Hynix listed in Hong Kong has lost 47% over three months while the underlying stock is up only 1%, entirely due to volatility drag. Over a long enough horizon, the mathematics of geometric returns ensures all levered ETFs approach zero, making them wealth-destroying instruments for end investors.
000660.KS AVOID
HIGH
16:00
Jul 30
Jul 30
15:00
Jul 26
Jul 26
17:24
Jul 23
Jul 23
Chinese onshore commodity futures
▾
HIGH
Chinese commodity futures offer diversification edge
Chinese commodity futures offer unique diversification and return opportunities. The Chinese futures markets are very large, heavily policy-driven, and financially segmented from western markets despite physical interlinkage. Short-term momentum historically works better there than in western markets, and the momentum factor appears to be extending in duration. Combined with a potential deglobalization impulse that could cause sharp divergence between onshore and offshore markets, these markets provide independent, uncorrelated bets that enhance a systematic macro portfolio.
Chinese onshore commodity futures LONG
HIGH
16:38
Jul 19
Jul 19
CME Single Stock Futures
▾
MED
Prefer single stock futures over index futures.
The explosion of zero-day options selling by retail has created a strong counter-trend force in equity indices, which suppresses index volatility and increases idiosyncratic risk. As a result, single stock futures (newly launching on CME) are now more attractive for trend following than index futures because they offer higher available risk and diversification.
CME Single Stock Futures LONG
MED
16:21
Jul 15
Jul 15
COPPER 1ST
GLD 1ST
SPY
XLE 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Copper overvalued on weak fundamentals.
Copper prices are at all-time nominal highs and everyone is bullish, but fundamentals are weak: copper mine supply grew quickly last year, Chinese demand has stagnated for 18 months, and inventories have swollen to 30-year highs. Investor enthusiasm is completely out of whack with the actual supply/demand picture, making copper the antithesis of oil.
COPPER AVOID
Avoid gold during multi-year consolidation.
They sold most of their gold positions in January due to several warning signs: a sharp silver catch-up rally that typically marks a precious metals topping phase, gold appearing parabolic, robust ETF inflows representing fast money that could quickly exit, and a market pricing in three rate cuts that seemed too dovish. Now gold is in a consolidation/correction that could last 2-3 years historically, and they do not see the conditions yet to re-enter. They are looking for a reversal of those signals (ETF length cleansed, very hawkish expectations, gold-to-oil ratio back in gold’s favor, and waning investor interest).
GLD AVOID
Government investment to boost US stocks.
The US is preparing a major strategic shift, creating a sovereign wealth fund and using tools like Trump accounts to invest heavily in US equities. He expects the government to deploy 5-10% of GDP over the next decade into strategic equities, leveraging the US dollar to create money at scale. This will drive US equities significantly higher, beginning sooner than most expect, possibly right after the midterms.
SPY LONG
Rotated into energy equities from gold.
In January, they sold most of their gold mining positions and rotated the proceeds into energy equities, reflecting a strong conviction that energy fundamentals are far better than the market appreciates. Energy equities benefit from low inventories, depleted strategic reserves, underinvestment, and the coming oil supply shock, while remaining attractively valued.
XLE LONG
Oil supply shock will spike prices.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz shut in 10-15 million barrels per day of upstream production for about 100 days, removing roughly a billion barrels of expected oil supply. Due to physical lags, this loss is only now hitting inventories, which are collapsing in the US and globally. Even after the Strait reopens, inventory draws will continue for another ~6 weeks because it takes that long for the upstream cut to work through the supply chain. Global usable storage is much lower than headline numbers suggest (only about 1 billion barrels of truly accessible cushion), so the system risks a catastrophic shortage by late summer. The market has not priced this in because investor positioning remains pervasively bearish and China’s actions have temporarily obscured demand data.
WTI LONG
Natural gas biggest play for AI power.
AI data centers will require enormous amounts of power, but the market is focused only on infrastructure (power plants, pipelines) and obscure specialty metals inside the data center. The real opportunity is in the natural gas molecule that will inevitably power these data centers. Nobody is investing in the upstream molecule of natural gas, making it the biggest market opportunity today.
UNG LONG
HIGH
15:00
Jul 12
Jul 12
COPPER 1ST
▾
MED
AI data center demand boosts copper.
Copper is a direct reflection of the AI demand story; hyperscaler data center CapEx plans are escalating, creating a strong structural demand tailwind that is not going away.
COPPER LONG
MED
15:36
Jul 10
Jul 10
STABLECOINS
▾
MED
Stablecoins face crash risk without insurance
Stablecoins are a form of bank dollar that lacks deposit insurance. As stablecoins grow, they pose a challenge to insured deposits. The more likely outcome is a crash in stablecoin value, triggering tighter regulation and forcing providers to pay for deposit insurance. This makes stablecoins fundamentally unsafe stores of value.
STABLECOINS AVOID
MED
17:30
Jul 04
Jul 04
SMH 1ST
WTI FLIP
SPY
▾
HIGH
AI capex cycle backed by government
AI-related capital expenditure is different this cycle because the US government implicitly guarantees it. Tech leaders like Larry Ellison and Mark Zuckerberg are borrowing heavily to build AI infrastructure based on a wink-and-nod understanding that the government will backstop them, buy their stock, or bail them out. This creates a bullish reflexivity loop for AI capex, especially in the hyperscaler and semiconductor supply chain.
SMH LONG
Extreme short positioning suggests oil rally
Record high short positioning in oil, as everyone who was positioned for an inevitable spike threw in the towel after the April/May rally fizzled. This extreme contrarian setup, combined with potential US geopolitical moves like attacking Iran after the midterm elections, makes oil a compelling long bet. The speaker explicitly says it is now more interesting to start taking that bet.
WTI LONG
Sovereign wealth fund will lift US stocks
The US government is moving toward a strategic capitalism model and will create a sovereign wealth fund to buy $10-15 trillion of US equities by printing money. This will support an equity market that is too big to fail, short-circuit populism, compete with China, and drive massive equity upside. The plan is already starting with government stakes in companies like Intel and Open AI, and major buying is expected after the midterm elections by June 2027.
SPY LONG
HIGH
14:20
Jul 03
Jul 03
Valor Atomics
Ollo
SPY
▾
HIGH
Small modular reactors unlock abundant energy.
Small modular nuclear reactors are a transformational, underappreciated energy breakthrough. Companies like Valor Atomics and Ollo have built reactors with far fewer engineers and in far less time than traditional nuclear, dramatically collapsing cost and schedule. This solves data center energy opposition, enables abundant energy anywhere, and the market has not yet clocked the opportunity.
Valor Atomics WATCH
Ollo WATCH
US printing dollars supports equity market.
The US can lean on the exorbitant privilege of the dollar to print money like Japan, resolving national debt, supporting the too-big-to-fail equity market, and buying people into equities to share wealth and pacify populism. This implies a policy-driven floor under US stocks.
SPY LONG
HIGH
15:00
Jun 28
Jun 28
Managed Futures
▾
HIGH
Allocate to managed futures in high volatility
In high-risk, high-uncertainty environments, managed futures strategies show no negative sensitivity to risk regimes or shocks, unlike other hedge fund strategies whose excess returns diminish and beta rises. Therefore, investors should increase their allocation to managed futures to gain better diversification and crisis protection.
Managed Futures LONG
HIGH
15:00
Jun 21
Jun 21
DBC 1ST
▾
MED
Overweight commodities for diversification and crisis alpha.
Commodities have historically provided the most consistent trend following returns, especially during crises and inflationary regimes. Adding more commodity markets enhances true diversification and crisis alpha, making a strong case for overweighting commodities in a trend-following portfolio.
DBC LONG
MED
19:00
Jun 18
Jun 18
16:45
Jun 14
Jun 14
18:30
Jun 11
Jun 11
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
US equity market will be backstopped
The US equity market will ultimately be backstopped by the Treasury and the Fed through money printing and the creation of a sovereign wealth fund that directly buys US companies, because monetizing the debt and supporting equities is the only way out of the structural debt, populism, and financialization problems. This will drive massive asset inflation and support equity prices.
SPY LONG
HIGH
18:30
Jun 08
Jun 08
15:14
Jun 06
Jun 06
EEM 1ST
DBC 1ST
▾
MED
Emerging markets are a long-term opportunity.
Emerging markets have been ignored for a long time, but long-term GDP growth, improving profitability, and institutional interest make them a strategic growth area. The asset class is out of favor and offers a compelling risk-reward for long-term investors.
EEM LONG
Commodities are the best inflation hedge.
Commodities are one of the best liquid tools for hedging inflation, especially during inflation shocks. They are underappreciated in multi-asset portfolios and provide effective short-term protection when inflation surprises to the upside.
DBC LONG
MED
15:00
May 31
May 31
16:28
May 28
May 28
15:00
May 24
May 24
15:39
May 22
May 22
S&P 500 put options
S&P 500 call options
DBC 1ST
SPY 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hedge with downside crash protection.
Given the fragility of a passive-dominated market and the risk of sudden, violent corrections from forced deleveraging, downside hedges (crash protection) are very attractive. They provide asymmetric payoff when breaks occur and are cheap in a low-volatility, flow-driven environment.
S&P 500 put options LONG
Buy underpriced S&P call skew.
The call skew on the S&P index is likely underpriced because the index becomes more concentrated and less elastic, making upside convexity cheap relative to the risk of reflexive upside moves. Buying upside tail risk (e.g., call options) allows participation without adding to long exposure.
S&P 500 call options LONG
Go long inflation-sensitive assets.
The most likely long-term policy response to an over-levered, fragile system is inflationary monetization of debt, which will benefit assets that are sensitive to inflation. Investors should find ways to get long inflation-sensitive assets such as commodities, gold, or other real assets.
DBC LONG
Long equities attractive due to passive flows.
As passive investing continues to drive equity markets upward through flow-driven momentum, being long equities is attractive because the reflexive performance-flow loop can persist for a long time, even if fundamentals are disconnected. The risk of a sudden break is real, but the trend is powerful.
SPY LONG
HIGH
15:00
May 18
May 18
14:00
May 15
May 15
15:01
May 11
May 11
GLD 1ST
▾
HIGH
Gold will outperform over next decade.
Gold is in a long-term bull market driven by central bank buying, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, Chinese retail demand, supply constraints, and a shift in portfolio allocation recommendations. He urges investors to buy physical gold on dips, as the positive forces are structural and likely to persist for years. Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the last 25 years and is expected to continue outperforming over the next decade due to lower equity return expectations and gold's unique store-of-value properties.
GLD LONG
HIGH
14:21
May 10
May 10
Regime Adaptive Fund
▾
HIGH
Adaptive portfolio via trend following overlay.
The Regime Adaptive Fund combines a strategic asset allocation (40% risk to growth assets, 20% to diversifiers like bonds and gold, 40% to trend following) to create a portfolio that adapts to changing macroeconomic regimes, inflation, and correlations. It targets ~10-12% volatility and aims to provide both participation in equity upside and protection during downturns via the trend-following overlay.
Regime Adaptive Fund LONG
HIGH
16:43
May 04
May 04
WTI 1ST
▾
HIGH
Long oil due to supply shock trends.
The supply shock from the Middle East conflict has kept oil prices elevated, and being long crude oil since March has been profitable despite increased volatility. The persistence of the crisis and central banks' inability to address supply shocks supports continued price trends.
WTI LONG
HIGH
13:36
May 01
May 01
17:59
Apr 27
Apr 27
WTI FLIP
BNO 1ST
▾
MED
Brent to outperform WTI on spread.
The US government's ability to control domestic oil prices (WTI) while global Brent prices rise due to geopolitical tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption will cause the Brent-WTI spread to widen significantly, making the spread trade an easy directional play.
WTI SHORT
BNO LONG
MED
20:00
Apr 24
Apr 24
BTC 1ST
ALTCOINS 1ST
▾
HIGH
Bitcoin is a structural winner long-term.
Bitcoin is bullish over the next 5 years due to generational demand from younger cohorts who favor technological advancement and fairness, combined with favorable supply-demand and regulatory pathways.
BTC LONG
Altcoins lack sustained use case.
Most altcoins lack a sustained use case and structural growth, making them bearish investments overall, though occasionally tradeable.
ALTCOINS SHORT
HIGH
16:00
Apr 19
Apr 19
UST 1ST
WTI 1ST
▾
MED
Short bonds due to inflation concerns.
Rob Carver is short bonds as part of a portfolio positioning reflecting inflation concerns and uncertainty. He expects that a potential oil supply shock could hurt equities, which his long equity position would suffer, but the short bonds position would provide some offset. The short bonds position is a direct bet on rising yields or inflation.
UST SHORT
Long energies on oil supply shock.
Rob Carver holds a small long position in energies (oil futures) based on his view that an oil supply shock is likely to play out, driving oil prices higher. He expects the oil price rally to be sustained due to physical market dislocations, though his overall portfolio risk is low and the position size is modest.
WTI LONG
MED
17:35
Apr 16
Apr 16
GLD 1ST
SILVER 1ST
▾
MED
Bullish on gold and silver
Gold and silver remain in a bull market pullback. If prices hold current support, the next three to six months should see significant upside. He personally holds physical gold and silver coins as a hedge against monetary debasement, viewing the environment as similar to the 1970s.
GLD LONG
SILVER LONG
MED
15:30
Apr 13
Apr 13
QIS trend products
DBMF 1ST
CTA 1ST
▾
HIGH
QIS trend products underperform live
QIS (quantitative investment strategies) trend products consistently underperform the live CTA index, typically by 200 basis points, with a 90% drop from backtest Sharpe to live Sharpe. They suffer from high year-to-year dispersion (up to 40%), high manager selection risk, and opaque costs; allocators should avoid them as a replacement for active CTA exposure.
QIS trend products AVOID
Simple trend ETFs outperform complex funds
Simple CTA ETFs (like DBMF) outperform complex hedge fund and mutual fund trend followers due to lower fees and lower implementation costs from trading fewer markets and simpler models. Over the past five years, the average CTA ETF returned 6.1% net per annum, 40 bps higher than the SocGen CTA index, with a higher Sharpe ratio, challenging the assumption that complexity yields higher alpha.
DBMF LONG
Tax-efficient CTA ETF is better
The new Simplify ETF based on the Dynamic Beta index offers a 35 basis point fee, swap-based exposure, and meaningful tax efficiency. It is designed for allocators who need a very low visible fee and passive-like wrapper, making it a superior vehicle to capture the same CTA replication signal as DBMF but in a more tax-efficient and cost-efficient package.
CTA LONG
HIGH
15:48
Apr 09
Apr 09
KRBN
Alternative commodity markets
▾
HIGH
European carbon trends persist despite poor backtest
European carbon (EU ETS) was added to the AQA portfolio in 2016 despite a negative 8-year trend backtest because it met fundamental criteria for an alternative market: structural supply/demand inelasticities and low financialization. It became one of the best-performing markets and has continued to exhibit strong, persistent trends.
KRBN WATCH
Alternative commodities have superior trend properties
Alternative commodity markets (e.g., South African sunflower seeds, US East Coast power, Chinese bitumen, uranium, biofuels, freight) offer fundamentally different risk factors and better trending properties than mainstream commodities or financial markets. Their structural supply/demand inelasticities, low speculative activity, and unique regional/physical drivers produce higher trend quality (autocorrelation) and quantity (drift), providing a diversifying and resilient source of trend-following returns.
Alternative commodity markets WATCH
HIGH
15:00
Apr 06
Apr 06
TLT 1ST
▾
MED
Short bonds on inflation theme.
If the inflation theme continues, trend following will likely go short bonds as rising inflation pressures cause bond prices to fall. This is based on the expectation that inflation remains a key macro driver, leading to a sustained sell-off in fixed income.
TLT SHORT
MED
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