Ideas
Oil supply shock will spike prices.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz shut in 10-15 million barrels per day of upstream production for about 100 days, removing roughly a billion barrels of expected oil supply. Due to physical lags, this loss is only now hitting inventories, which are collapsing in the US and globally. Even after the Strait reopens, inventory draws will continue for another ~6 weeks because it takes that long for the upstream cut to work through the supply chain. Global usable storage is much lower than headline numbers suggest (only about 1 billion barrels of truly accessible cushion), so the system risks a catastrophic shortage by late summer. The market has not priced this in because investor positioning remains pervasively bearish and China’s actions have temporarily obscured demand data.
Avoid gold during multi-year consolidation.
They sold most of their gold positions in January due to several warning signs: a sharp silver catch-up rally that typically marks a precious metals topping phase, gold appearing parabolic, robust ETF inflows representing fast money that could quickly exit, and a market pricing in three rate cuts that seemed too dovish. Now gold is in a consolidation/correction that could last 2-3 years historically, and they do not see the conditions yet to re-enter. They are looking for a reversal of those signals (ETF length cleansed, very hawkish expectations, gold-to-oil ratio back in gold’s favor, and waning investor interest).
Rotated into energy equities from gold.
In January, they sold most of their gold mining positions and rotated the proceeds into energy equities, reflecting a strong conviction that energy fundamentals are far better than the market appreciates. Energy equities benefit from low inventories, depleted strategic reserves, underinvestment, and the coming oil supply shock, while remaining attractively valued.
Government investment to boost US stocks.
The US is preparing a major strategic shift, creating a sovereign wealth fund and using tools like Trump accounts to invest heavily in US equities. He expects the government to deploy 5-10% of GDP over the next decade into strategic equities, leveraging the US dollar to create money at scale. This will drive US equities significantly higher, beginning sooner than most expect, possibly right after the midterms.
Copper overvalued on weak fundamentals.
Copper prices are at all-time nominal highs and everyone is bullish, but fundamentals are weak: copper mine supply grew quickly last year, Chinese demand has stagnated for 18 months, and inventories have swollen to 30-year highs. Investor enthusiasm is completely out of whack with the actual supply/demand picture, making copper the antithesis of oil.
Natural gas biggest play for AI power.
AI data centers will require enormous amounts of power, but the market is focused only on infrastructure (power plants, pipelines) and obscure specialty metals inside the data center. The real opportunity is in the natural gas molecule that will inevitably power these data centers. Nobody is investing in the upstream molecule of natural gas, making it the biggest market opportunity today.
This Top Traders Unplugged video, published July 15, 2026,
features Adam Rozencwajg, Cem Karsan
discussing WTI, GLD, XLE, SPY, COPPER, UNG.
6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Adam Rozencwajg,
Cem Karsan
· Tickers:
WTI,
GLD,
XLE,
SPY,
COPPER,
UNG
