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· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) relayed TSMC calling leading-node demand insatiable, while Jukan reported Anthropic's sell-side remarks and Sam Altman's warning of double counted demand.
Themes on this desk
Neocloud pricing
CoreWeave said some short-term capacity fetches over $40M per MW annually and qualified demand runs about 10x available capacity through 2027, per @stocksavvyshay.
Ticker heat
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Market Radar →Anthropic told the sell side its SpaceX contract will not be extended beyond the middle of next year
Per Jukan's list of Anthropic's remarks, the company said the AI market is winner take all and that it has the stability and better talent that open source lacks.
Interesting remarks Anthropic made in a meeting with the sell side:
The remarks lay out Anthropic's view of its competition and of its SpaceX contract.
Watch Whether the SpaceX contract ends in the middle of next year.
Source →Sam Altman told Samsung executives there has been some double counting of AI demand
Asked whether demand for AI, memory chips and data centers could level off, Altman said OpenAI and Anthropic are the only two companies really driving substantial growth in demand, so a supply shock and a period of turbulence could follow.
During a Q&A with Samsung executives, Sam Altman addressed concerns about a bubble in the neocloud sector, saying, “There has
Altman's answer ties the outlook for AI, memory chip and data-center demand to two buyers.
Watch Demand from OpenAI and Anthropic for compute, memory and data centers.
Source →TSMC says demand for its leading-node silicon is far above its ability to supply
Relaying TSMC's Nikkei Forum remarks, Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) says the company saw no sign of AI demand slowing and named power and substrates as customer bottlenecks; Wei said AI accelerator revenue growth will probably be higher than a mid-to-high-50s annualized estimate for 2024-2029.
You heard 10x demand for compute > supply from $CRWV today. Hearing from $TSM today on Nikkei Forum:
Serenity reads a traditionally conservative company calling demand insatiable as evidence against an AI demand collapse.
Watch Power and substrate bottlenecks at TSMC customers.
Source →Serenity flags distributor WT's first CW DFB laser line card as significant for the medium to long term
Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) says the share of Broadcom revenue running through WT rose from 13% in 2020 to about 28% in 2024 and possibly up to about 46% now, and that Semtech generated 74% of its revenue through distributors.
There's a lot of news about WT (3036) introducing their first CW DFB laser line card.
WT's chairman attributed rapid growth to AI photonics demand, and WT introduced the laser line card during an industry bottleneck.
Watch Laser sales through WT's new line card.
Source →Anthropic's filing says $5.0B of short-term Q3 compute cost significantly more than its multi-year deals
Per @tengyanAI, CoreWeave sells short-term capacity at more than $40M per MW a year while new 4-5 year contracts price at $20-25M, about 1.6-2x more for renting now.
this is the compute squeeze, seen from both sides of the table on the same day. the buyer:
The same filing names 'Anthropic direct' chip leasing and one compute pool routed across Trainium, TPUs, Nvidia and AMD as Anthropic's way out.
Watch Who sold Anthropic the $5.0B of short-term compute, which the filing does not say.
Source →