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· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Gavin Baker argued GPU prepayments change the key metrics, Serenity read through CoreWeave's prepayments and older-GPU pricing, Jukan relayed that Anthropic's Q4 guide is conservative because of December time off, and TheValueist flagged Senator Kevin Cramer's call for Huang to step down.
Themes on this desk
Neocloud prepayments
Gavin Baker says customers are increasingly paying nearly 100% upfront, and Serenity reads CoreWeave's 100% contract-value prepayments as a positive message for Nebius and IREN.
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Market Radar →Gavin Baker says GPU prepayments make OCF to EBITDA the key metric
Baker says the shift from offtake agreements to prepayments moves the diligence burden from private credit funds to the customer making the prepayment, and significantly improves the payback period on GPUs.
The shift away from financing GPU clusters with offtake agreements to prepayments means that OCF to EBITDA is the most
Dock-to-live and historic cluster stability become the key metrics for customers increasingly paying nearly 100% upfront.
Source →Jukan relays that Anthropic's conservative Q4 guide reflects December time off
Jukan writes that, apparently, Anthropic gave conservative Q4 guidance because engineers tend to take time off in December.
Apparently, Anthropic gave conservative Q4 guidance because engineers tend to take time off in December. Seems like a sensible approach.
Jukan passes on the reasoning and calls it a sensible approach.
Source →Serenity reads CoreWeave's 10x demand-to-capacity ratio through to other neoclouds
Serenity notes CoreWeave raised prices 25% in July and 10% later in Q3 with more to come in Q4, Ampere and Hopper rental pricing rose 30-50% quarter over quarter, and new loans price at 7-7.5%.
$CRWV ER and read through for $NBIS and other Neoclouds: “We have 10x as much qualified demand as available capacity”.
Serenity argues other neoclouds are in a better spot than CoreWeave on interest rates.
Watch CoreWeave's guide for positive adjusted net income in the first half of 2028.
Source →BofA sees a memory super-cycle through 2028 with revenue reaching $1.58 trillion
Per @pequityresearch, BofA forecasts memory market revenue of $0.97 trillion in 2026, $1.47 trillion in 2027 and $1.58 trillion in 2028.
BofA sees a multi-year memory super-cycle extending through 2028, with market revenue reaching $0.97T in '26, $1.47T in '27, and
BofA expects strong ASPs, stable contract prices and high bit growth to yield a 2028 soft landing.
Watch 2028 DRAM revenue growth against BofA's 10% forecast.
Source →Senator Kevin Cramer calls for Jensen Huang to step down over extortion risk
TheValueist relays that Cramer, a senior Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, said "the potential for extortion is so tremendous" that Huang has to go, and calls it the first congressional demand for Huang himself.
$NVDA $MU $SNDK $LITE FIRST SENATOR CALLS FOR JENSEN HUANG TO RESIGN THE NEWS Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota,
TheValueist notes Cramer sits on the committee with export control jurisdiction.
Watch The closed-door briefing request for November 18, which Huang must answer by November 11.
Source →