Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit split on buying Nvidia's dip, while r/ValueInvesting authors modeled Anthropic's IPO valuation and argued the bigger Nvidia story is circular AI financing.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia dip
One author deployed savings into Nvidia, calling it a bargain under $175 with a one-year horizon, while another is buying puts, citing an investor lawsuit and a US government investigation into China GPU sales.
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by score · day changer/ValueInvesting model finds Anthropic's $1.4 trillion IPO price lacks an ample margin of safety
The author models whether Anthropic's earnings could justify a proposed $1.4 trillion IPO valuation and concludes a strong execution case can support the price.
When Will Anthropic’s Earnings Justify Its IPO Valuation?
The model does not establish an ample margin of safety at the IPO price.
Source →Author argues circular AI financing, not the Huang scandal, is the real Nvidia story
The author argues the real story is circular AI financing among Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle and CoreWeave, and warns index holders are concentrated in the same bet.
Jensen Huang admitted an affair on Sunday. On Monday Nvidia lost $192 billion. The scandal is not the story, though.
Index holders are concentrated in the same bet, according to the author.
Watch Nvidia earnings and the congressional briefing.
Source →Infineon's adjusted free cash flow falls to €1,630 million without the building spend adjustment
The author shows that reversing the net building spend adjustment lowers Infineon's FY2026 adjusted free cash flow from €1,925 million to €1,630 million.
Infineon closes FY 2026 with record quarter;
The author cautions against using the adjusted figure without checking capex assumptions.
Source →Fossil Group turnaround thesis update cites return to profitability
The author updates a prior Fossil Group turnaround thesis, citing a return to profitability, rolled-over debt and a path back to growth.
PART 3 - Fossil Group Inc.
The author frames it as a greater turnaround than Abercrombie & Fitch.
Source →Natural Resource Partners author argues its 7.6% dividend is sustainable
The author is long NRP, arguing the 7.6% dividend is sustainable, backed by a roughly 10% FCF yield, now that debt is fully repaid.
Natural Resource Partners (NRP) - 7.6% yield NRP is a mining rights holding company with a FCF yield of \~10%
A soda ash stake offers further upside when pricing normalizes, per the author.
Watch Soda ash pricing.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteAuthor predicts Cisco will fall sharply after its Thursday earnings
The author predicts Cisco will fall after its November 12 earnings on weak EPS and guidance, targeting about $80, then $70, and $50 by December.
CSCO will probably drop 50% or more after Earnings Yes, I'm that bearish on CSCO.
It is a bearish pre-earnings call with explicit price targets.
Watch Cisco's November 12 EPS and guidance.
Source →SoftBank shares dropped 10% after a $7 billion loss
The author highlights SoftBank's 10% share drop and $7 billion loss, citing a claimed 33% five-year bankruptcy probability and its risky investment history.
SoftBank Looking…Soft 😂 SOFTBANK SHARES DROP 10% AFTER BOOKING $7 BILLION LOSS Putting it all together:
The author points to SoftBank's risky investment history.
Source →Author bought Palantir around $156 during the plunge
The author bought Palantir around $156 during the plunge and is considering adding more or buying an out-of-the-money call.
PLTR Shares picked up during plunge I picked up around 156 because I think there’s more to come from PLTR.
It is a disclosed dip purchase.
Source →