Daily Alpha · Reddit
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Reddit split over whether Nvidia's selloff is overdone, questioned Anthropic's $1.4 trillion valuation, and covered WASDE stock draws, waste haulers and shipping NAV discounts.
Themes on this desk
Nvidia dip debate
One post argues Nvidia's drop is disproportionate to the China/Asian-cloud issue because demand remains supply-constrained, another says Berkshire should put $50 billion into Nvidia at a 13.8x forward multiple, and a third expects earnings
Anthropic IPO doubts
Posts ask whether the reported $1.4 trillion valuation prices in too much growth, compare Anthropic to the dot-com bust, and say launching on the same date as GTA 6 is a bad idea.
Highest engagement
by score · day changeFedora CountMe data shows enterprise Linux remains overwhelmingly x86, supporting an EPYC refresh thesis
The author argues a large aging RHEL 8.10 base supports a 2027-2028 traditional server refresh favoring AMD EPYC share gains.
Independent Linux data supports the EPYC refresh thesis I've been trying to find an independent way to test two parts
Independent data backs the case for AMD server share gains.
Watch A 2027-2028 traditional server refresh.
Source →November WASDE cut the corn yield 1.6 bu/ac and US sugar stocks-to-use to 13.9% from 14.9%
US ending stocks tightened across corn, sugar, soybeans and cotton, with wheat the only build.
November WASDE: corn yield cut 1.6 bu/ac, US sugar stocks-to-use 14.9% -> 13.9%, soybean complex draws down, wheat the only
Ending stocks are tightening across four US crops.
Source →A r/stocks post argues opposition to data centers could delay hyperscaler AI capex
The author cites rising community and political opposition to data center construction and questions whether further tech corrections are likely, despite finding some Q3-earnings-based undervaluation.
Data Centers and Tech Deflation There is a growing sentiment in the United States that Data Center construction is not
Opposition could delay hyperscaler AI capex.
Watch Community and political opposition to data center construction.
Source →The four big US waste haulers compared from their SEC filings
The author finds the big three similar on margins and CWST a high-growth, low-margin outlier, and declines to make a valuation-based buy call.
Garbage is a great business: the four big US trash haulers compared from their SEC filings Waste haulers get called
CWST stands apart from its peers on growth and margins.
Source →Rook I construction is reportedly on schedule and cash is strong, but 2027 financing is still needed
The author reviews a uranium developer's earnings call, citing reportedly on-schedule Rook I construction and strong cash, and says they are comfortable with the near-term cash position.
The Mine, the Money, and What's Coming in 2027. Listened to the call and read the transcript. Quick takeaways:
2027 financing needs are the open question.
Watch 2027 financing for Rook I.
Source →Most argued
by comments per upvoteShip values near historic highs diverge from some shipping equities trading below estimated NAV
The author highlights a large divergence between ship values near historic highs and some discounted shipping equities and frames it as a research question.
The biggest divergence in stock market history?
Some shipping equities trade below estimated NAV.
Source →OHI's new management is making accretive operator deals and expanding in the UK, a post argues
The author argues accretive operator deals, UK expansion and deleveraging could accelerate growth at a reasonable P/AFFO.
OHI: Omega Health Investors OHI is a REIT that focuses on skilled nursing and assisted living facilities.
Growth could accelerate at a reasonable P/AFFO.
Watch Operator deals and deleveraging at OHI.
Source →A post argues VOO, after four weak months, will lag SCHD and RWL over the next year
The author cites VOO's tech concentration and tech uncertainty.
CMV: Voo has been bad for the past 4 months and, given tech uncertainty and its tech concentration, it is
Tech concentration is the case against VOO.
Watch VOO against SCHD and RWL over the next year.
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