NX NXE NexGen Energy Ltd. Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views

Author argues that if current uranium contracts hold a 2030 price of $110/lb, Rook I's NPV reaches $7.8B, and NPV rises about $1B for every $10/lb increase. If BofA's forecast of uranium reaching $150 by 2027 is right, the author sees a very nice profit versus current valuation. Main risk is that the uranium price assumptions fail to materialize.

The author argues uranium is shifting from a cycle trade to a structural story as electricity demand climbs and data centres roughly double their power use by 2030, with governments putting policy weight behind nuclear including Small Modular Reactors. Within Canada's high-grade Athabasca Basin, NexGen's Rook I project is an advanced development asset that has completed the two-part Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission hearing process, with a final federal decision still pending. The author frames this as a five-to-ten-year supply stack question rather than near-term price action, with the main risk being the pending federal decision and financing.

The author believes the upcoming CNSC hearing will validate NexGen's project, undermining Culper Research's short thesis. If the stock crosses $12.50, 78.2 million shares short with 9.7 days to cover could trigger a massive short squeeze.