Daily Alpha · Substack
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack added two useful cross-checks: Gaetano frames optical earnings as the next AI-spending proof point, and Nonconsensus flags the QRA, midterms and AI-trade rerating as the week's macro catalysts.
Themes on this desk
Optical earnings
Gaetano previews optical targets, hyperscaler cash flow and Tuesday reactions as the next AI-spending test.
Macro calendar
Nonconsensus flags the QRA, midterms, RBA and BoE decisions, and the AI-trade rerating as the week's main macro catalysts.
Critical minerals
Rooster argues Canadian permitting reforms improve the project case for uranium, copper, lithium and rare earths.
Gaetano frames optical earnings as the next proof point for AI spending
The public preview says this week's optical results will show the targets companies need to hit, when hyperscaler cash flow could improve, and which stocks could react to Tuesday's results. It follows last week's argument that the AI trade was starting to feel fragile.
Optical is a cleaner test of AI bandwidth demand than another hyperscaler capex headline; earnings can validate or break the recent de-rating.
Watch Optical company revenue and guidance versus targets, hyperscaler cash-flow commentary, and post-earnings price reaction.
Source →Nonconsensus flags QRA, midterms and AI-trade rerating as the week's macro catalysts
The public preview calls it a packed employment week with the QRA, election and more monetary-policy news from the RBA and BoE, but says the rerating of the AI trade looms largest. It also flags upcoming Treasury issuance policy announcements.
The week combines duration supply, election risk and central-bank decisions; for AI equities, the discount rate and policy backdrop may matter more than another earnings print.
Watch QRA issuance details, midterm outcome, RBA and BoE decisions, and AI-sector reaction to rates.
Source →Canadian permitting reforms sharpen the critical-minerals case
The article says Canada is becoming more mining-friendly through 'One Project, One Review,' a Major Projects Office and proposed Bill C-39, which together aim to shorten approvals by around 50%. It names uranium, copper, nickel, lithium and rare earths as the clearest beneficiaries, while noting Bill C-39 is still proposed.
Faster permitting raises project value and lowers development risk for critical-minerals developers, but the policy is not final and timelines remain the key uncertainty.
Watch Bill C-39 passage, actual approval timelines, and project-level permitting milestones.
Source →Rooster trims Woodside to a 5% target from nearly 15%
The article says WDS has grown to nearly 15% of the portfolio versus a normal 5% weight, so the author is selling it back to target. The trim is portfolio risk management, not a fresh bearish fundamental call on Woodside.
Position sizing can force selling in a concentrated portfolio even when the fundamental view is unchanged; the note is a reminder to separate risk control from thesis.
Watch WDS weight after the trim, oil price and Woodside's next operating update.
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