Daily Alpha · X
· Premarket Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
X traders focused on AI hardware plumbing: Rubin HBM4 specs were cut, Kioxia's NAND outlook cracked, optical M&A math circulated, and GPU rental prices hit new highs even as China Blackwell scarcity intensified.
Themes on this desk
Memory supply
Rubin HBM4 bandwidth was cut, HBM supply remains tight, and Kioxia's NAND pricing outlook weakened.
AI compute pricing
BofA says B200/H100 rents are at new highs, while Jukan reports China Blackwell server prices tripled in four months.
Optical M&A
Mizuho estimates Lumentum premium and Marvell dilution in an all-stock deal as optical earnings approach.
Ticker heat
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Top voices by smart followers and alpha score
Market Radar →This may not be the most appropriate comparison, but I’ve been meeting with industry contacts here in China, and selling Blackwell is now…
…more profitable than selling drugs. Prices have tripled in just four months. I’m told an eight-GPU server now goes for RMB 16 million. Quoting @akashi203: last month i was begging gpu providers for b300s at $7.9/hr now they're begging me to take them at $4.6/hr, no commitment something big is happening soon. ai gave us all its dessert and now it's time for the veggies
This may not be the most appropriate comparison, but I’ve been meeting with industry contacts here in China, and sellingSource →
BofA: We flag rental prices for B200 and H100 GPUs have now reached new highs this week (+47%, +31% YTD).
$NVDA $NBIS $CRWV $IREN
BofA: We flag rental prices for B200 and H100 GPUs have now reached new highs this week (+47%, +31% YTD).Source →
Nvidia's Rubin HBM4 bandwidth cut leaves supply and yield as the open question
PhotonCap notes Nvidia cut Rubin HBM4 bandwidth from 22 to 19.2 TB/s, down 12.7%, while Samsung, SK hynix and Micron all advertise speeds above Nvidia's revised 9.375 Gbps/pin requirement. It says there is no confirmed evidence SK hynix caused the cut, and SK hynix claims HBM4 yields beat targets with demand more than twice supply.
Rubin HBM4 Downgrade: Is SK hynix the Problem?
The note frames the HBM question around volume and yield rather than peak speed, a supply-risk signal for Rubin rather than just a clocking change.
Watch HBM4 qualification and yield disclosures, plus any further change to Rubin memory specifications.
Source →Kioxia's weak pricing discipline and flat guidance outweigh a low multiple
TheBigBerbowski says Kioxia's low forward P/E is not informative on its own after management guided almost no sequential revenue or earnings growth and resisted more aggressive pricing despite tight NAND supply. He still considers Kioxia stronger than SanDisk in several respects, but sees little near-term rerating catalyst.
The market continues to price memory and storage as cyclical industries, despite the increasingly strong long-term demand outlook.
A cheap multiple is not a catalyst when memory pricing discipline is weak; the note separates tight NAND supply from management's reluctance to price more aggressively.
Watch NAND pricing, Kioxia's next guidance and U.S. listing progress.
Source →Mizuho sees a 20-40% Lumentum premium and 29-33% Marvell dilution in an all-stock deal
Mizuho estimates an all-stock Marvell-Lumentum deal at a 20-40% premium would imply a $1,009-1,178 offer for Lumentum versus its $840.70 close, with 29-33% dilution for Marvell. The post frames the math as deal-specific rather than a verdict on optical demand.
Mizuho on $MRVL / $LITE: "Assuming an all-stock deal, a 20-40% premium would imply, a $1,009-1,178 offer for LITE (vs
The deal terms matter as much as the earnings: a stock-heavy transaction can cap Marvell while giving Lumentum holders a defined premium, even before optical demand is proven.
Watch Confirmation of deal terms and exchange ratio; Lumentum earnings and guidance versus the implied offer.
Source →