Daily Alpha · Substack
· Midday Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack's decision-useful material centered on a hawkish RBA path and the Anthropic IPO debate; the Rooster letters offered trade calls with little support.
Themes on this desk
RBA
Nonconsensus argues 100bp of hikes plus another are not enough and STIR underprices the RBA.
Anthropic IPO
Noahpinion frames Anthropic's IPO at an estimated $1.5-2T with Claude as the moat.
Silver and gold
Rooster's headline call is silver outperforming gold after a stop-loss break.
Nonconsensus says RBA hikes are not yet cooling inflation enough
Despite 100bp of hikes and another expected today, the post argues the Australian economy is far from cooling enough for the RBA to meet its inflation goals, and short-term interest-rate markets likely underprices the RBA’s resolve.
A more hawkish RBA than priced would pressure short-term rates and rate-sensitive assets.
Watch RBA decision and guidance, Australian CPI and labour data, front-end rate pricing.
Source →Noahpinion's Anthropic bull case rests on a $1.5-2T IPO and Claude as the moat
The post frames Anthropic's IPO at an estimated $1.5-2T, which would make it one of the biggest ever and far above Facebook's $104B 2012 IPO and Google's $23B 2004 IPO. Its core argument is that Claude itself is the moat.
A mega-cap AI IPO would reset valuation anchors for AI labs and test public-market appetite for compute-heavy models.
Watch Anthropic S-1 revenue and margins, compute commitments, IPO timing and valuation.
Source →