Daily Alpha · Substack
· Post-Market Alpha · by Buzzberg Research
Substack analysis centered on a self-reinforcing loop of war-driven oil, government and AI borrowing keeping long-term rates high while AI capex turns increasingly credit-financed.
Themes on this desk
AI-linked credit loop
Oracle's CDS at a record one notch above junk, Nvidia arranging customer loans and insurance, and insurers halving orders for 30-year AI bonds.
Energy pass-through
Diesel's record $6.53/gallon in September (+77% y/y) and Hormuz shipping at 80% capacity feed the rates-and-inflation loop.
Kyla Scanlon's 'shrugflation triangle': oil, AI borrowing and Treasury supply reinforce each other
Scanlon argues war-driven oil and heavy government plus AI borrowing push long-term rates higher while borrowing continues regardless, inflating a debt-funded AI capex boom; she cites diesel's record $6.53/gallon in September (+77% y/y), Oracle's record CDS one notch above junk, Nvidia arranging loans and insurance for chip buyers, and Eaton's count of 342GW of announced data centers versus 50GW operating.
Connects neocloud credit stress to the rates regime and flags circular-financing and insurance-demand risks in AI-linked debt.
Watch Oracle CDS and AI bond syndication; diesel and long-term yields as the loop's key inputs.
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