When Do We Buy?

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  December 16, 2025 at 07:10  |  56:37  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss crypto's December drawdown, tax-loss harvesting, and when to buy Bitcoin with size. They map a BTC demand/value zone around 74k-85k, debate whether crypto needs a catalyst, and analyze global M2, precious metals, and broken altcoin market dynamics. They also cover equities positioning in Tesla, Robinhood, Nasdaq, SPY, and AI single names, plus trading psychology around losses.

  • Crypto is pressured by year-end tax-loss selling and low December risk appetite.
  • Avi outlines a BTC accumulation zone around 85k-74k; Jonah highlights a ~75k macro reset.
  • Both see altcoins as broadly broken and favor Bitcoin over most altcoins.
  • Gold and silver are framed as debasement hedges; GDX is a watched miners re-entry.
  • Jonah likes SPY and expects crowded AI single-name stocks to retrace.
  • Avi holds Tesla and Robinhood and flags Hyperliquid as a standout altcoin.
  • The hosts debate whether Bitcoin needs a catalyst and discuss trading discipline after losses.
Ideas
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 2:31
Buy Bitcoin in 74-85k demand zone.
Avi is tactically waiting to buy Bitcoin in the 85k-74k demand/value zone, focusing near 75k if year-end tax-loss selling and December risk aversion create capitulation. He sees that area as where real demand existed before DAT-driven flows and wants to buy as selling slows.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 10:00
Watch Solana near 75 buy.
Avi expects year-end tax-loss selling could nuke altcoins and says if Solana falls to around $75, that would likely be a buy. He is less confident in forecasting altcoin levels than Bitcoin but sees that level as a value opportunity.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 11:15
Still long Robinhood after round trip.
Avi still owns a decent amount of Robinhood after buying around 114; it ran up 21% and he did not take profits, and it has since come back to about 117. He remains long and hopes it holds in during the crypto/equity volatility.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 11:34
Tesla long; chart set to rip.
Avi is long Tesla from around 400, already up about 20%, and says the chart is set to absolutely rip. He ties it to a US equity market that is up for the year and where winners like Tesla are not being tax-loss sold.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 11:42
Long Nasdaq; winners avoid tax-loss selling.
Avi is not bearish on the broader US equity market, noting it is up year-to-date and that nobody is tax-loss harvesting winners like NASDAQ. This contrasts with crypto, where tax-loss selling is pressuring prices.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 15:52
Buy Bitcoin near 75k macro reset.
Jonah would buy Bitcoin if it reaches the bottom of Avi's ~75k demand zone because that would reset it to pre-Trump/pre-DAT levels while the de-dollarization and fiscal-irresponsibility story remains intact. He expects January re-engagement and few defensible stories to bring buyers back.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 18:00
Altcoins broken; sell and rotate BTC.
Jonah thinks the altcoin market is broken as a liquid-venture model: most tokens are poor companies with no token economics and investors are not better than professional VCs. He recommends harvesting altcoin losses and rolling proceeds into Bitcoin.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 23:20
Hyperliquid is real product winner.
Avi argues Hyperliquid is the only major altcoin trade that has really worked because it is an actual product with usage, not just a speculative dream. He contrasts it with the broken broader altcoin market.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 26:02
Gold and silver debasement hedge rally.
Jonah sees gold and silver rallying as a debasement hedge, with Eastern M2/China printing money in a way that cannot easily flow into Bitcoin. He thinks this is a post-Ukraine paradigm shift in which precious metals trade as risk-on debasement hedges, and that anything denominated in dollars should rise over the medium-long run; he is not chasing the highs.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 26:41
Watch GDX for re-entry.
Jonah had a big gold/silver miners trade and owned GDX, but sold after a 10% liquidation candle in gold. Silver has since reclaimed all-time highs and gold is near highs, so he is watching whether to buy back.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:10
SPY is nice diversified long.
Jonah likes SPY as a nice diversified equity bet, especially versus concentrating in single-name AI stocks after the rally. He thinks equities broadly benefit from rising monetary supply, while crowded AI names are vulnerable to retracements.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:15
Avoid crowded AI single names.
Jonah does not want to concentrate in single-name AI stocks after the huge AI-led rally. He expects the AI narrative to see retracements similar to other crowded crypto narratives.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 44:02
Avoid ETH; it is overpriced.
Jonah thinks ETH is about 60% too high and the Ethereum ecosystem is overpriced; he won't touch it now, citing lack of urgency from the team. He concedes first-mover advantage may make it attractive after another 50-70% drawdown and as TradFi adopts ETH-based products.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 45:20
Watch revenue crypto products for rebuy.
Avi and Jonah's thesis is that useful, revenue-generating crypto financial products like Aerodrome and Syrup will do well over the next two to three years. Despite current losses, he does not think it is time to give up; he suggests tax-loss harvesting and rebuying when Bitcoin starts to rally.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published December 16, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing BTC, SOL, HOOD, TSLA, QQQ, ALTCOINS, HYPE, GLD, SILVER, GDX, SPY, AIQ, ETH, SYRUP, AERODROME. 14 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: BTC, SOL, HOOD, TSLA, QQQ, ALTCOINS, HYPE, GLD, SILVER, GDX, SPY, AIQ, ETH, SYRUP, AERODROME