‘Absolute Madness’: Trillions In Debt Maturing Soon As Inflation Reignites | Michael Howell

Summary

Michael Howell of GL Indexes explains his global liquidity framework and 2026 outlook. He argues that central-bank liquidity is peaking just as a COVID-era debt maturity wall and heavy fiscal issuance absorb cash, likely producing a stronger inflation and economic backdrop but a more troubled, range-bound market. He recommends moving defensively in equities and credit, while favoring commodities, government duration, consumer staples, and monetary inflation hedges such as gold, silver, and Bitcoin on weakness.

• Global liquidity cycle is near a peak and projected to inflect lower in 2026.
• Debt maturity wall and fiscal spending are absorbing liquidity and raising refinancing pressures.
• Treasury QE and deficit monetization are inflationary and support stronger 2026 US GDP.
• Howell expects the S&P 500 to be range-bound and advises defensive positioning.
• He favors commodities during the speculation phase and government bonds as turbulence approaches.
• He recommends buying gold, silver, precious metals, and Bitcoin on weakness as inflation hedges.
• China's real-estate problem may force yuan devaluation and central-bank gold buying.
• Fed liquidity operations may support markets near term but are not likely enough to sustain the bubble.