When Do We Buy, Global M2, Does Crypto Need A Catalyst, & Owning Your L’s

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  December 15, 2025 at 22:30  |  56:21  |  1000x Podcast
Speakers
Avi Felman — Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management
Jonah Van Bourg — Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol

Summary

Hosts Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg discuss a difficult crypto market in December, tax-loss selling, and when to buy Bitcoin and alts with size. They debate whether crypto needs a catalyst, the dislocation between Bitcoin and global M2, and why gold and silver are rallying as debasement hedges. They also cover equities, Robinhood, Tesla, ETH, altcoins, and trader psychology around owning losses.

  • Crypto is under pressure from December tax-loss selling and low risk appetite.
  • Avi outlines a BTC demand/value zone around $88k-$74k and lower buy levels for ETH and SOL.
  • Jonah argues Bitcoin no longer needs a catalyst and steady inflows will drive long-term gains.
  • Global M2 growth is tilted toward Eastern M2, which may favor gold/silver over Bitcoin short term.
  • Jonah prefers SPY over single-name AI stocks and avoids chasing gold/silver highs.
  • ETH is viewed as overpriced now, though longer-term TradFi adoption could improve its outlook.
  • Altcoins remain unattractive until Bitcoin enters a bull market.
  • Both hosts discuss owning losses and maintaining trading discipline.
Ideas
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 8:23
Buy crypto capitulation lows with tax selling.
Tax-loss selling, lack of December risk appetite, and DAT-related unwind could push crypto to capitulation levels. Avi sees BTC value/demand zone at $88k-$74k, especially $80k-$74k, would buy $75k, and sees ETH possibly to $2.2k and SOL to $75. He is waiting for selling to slow and would buy BTC, ETH, and SOL into that confluence, expecting January re-engagement.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 10:41
Still own Robinhood after strong rally.
Avi still owns a decent amount of Robinhood; it rallied 21% from buys at 114 and is back around 117. He did not take profits, and it is part of the stronger equity market that is not facing tax-loss harvesting pressure.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 10:59
Tesla will rip; market not bearish.
Tesla has done very well, up about 20% since Avi bought around 400. He thinks the chart is set to rip and uses it as evidence he is not bearish on the broad market, only on crypto.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 15:59
Bitcoin needs no catalyst, steady inflows.
Four-year cycle is over and Bitcoin has graduated past needing a catalyst. It is legal money, a generational wealth transfer, capital controls hedge, and DeFi/back-office trend; steady inflows should drive smaller but still SPY-beating returns, less painful sell-offs, and less parabolic rallies. He would buy the pre-Trump demand zone around $75k on dollar debasement/fiscal irresponsibility, expects January re-engagement, and thinks all-time highs will happen again.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 18:33
Altcoins uninvestable until Bitcoin bull market.
Altcoin liquid venture model is broken; most tokens are bad companies with no cash flow link to tokenholders, and most altcoin investors are not better than professional VCs. He says you cannot invest in altcoins until Bitcoin enters a bull market, and Bitcoin is currently in a bear market.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 26:09
Gold and silver continue ripping higher.
Gold and silver can continue to rip because the recent global M2 expansion is coming from Eastern M2/China, where capital is less able to buy Bitcoin, so debasement flows into precious metals. Gold has shifted from a risk-off asset to a risk-on debasement hedge since the Ukraine war; silver is at extreme levels versus oil.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 26:50
Need to buy back gold miners.
Avi previously made a big bullish call on gold and silver miners/GDX but sold during a 10% gold liquidation candle. Silver has reclaimed all-time highs and gold is near highs; he is on the sidelines and wants to buy back.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:19
SPY is nice diversified equity bet.
Jonah prefers SPY as a nice diversified bet over concentrating in single-name AI stocks after the rally. He expects Western stimulus and liquidity to support broad equities and would rather buy underperformed Bitcoin than chase gold/silver at highs.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:25
Avoid single-name AI stocks after rally.
He is not going to concentrate in single-name AI stocks after the rally. The AI narrative has propelled the market, and things that ripped too much may get punished or retrace, similar to prior crypto narrative cycles.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 31:35
Avoid buying gold and silver highs.
Jonah will not buy gold or silver at highs after their big rallies. He thinks overextended assets may retrace and prefers an underperformed asset like Bitcoin that has fallen for a temporary or transient reason.
Jonah Van Bourg Head of Trading, Cumberland / ex-Vitol 44:01
Ethereum is 60% too high.
ETH is probably 60% too high and he does not want to touch it. The ETH ecosystem is overpriced and the team lacks urgency, citing Kyle Sani. Longer term, after another 50-70% drawdown, first-mover advantage and TradFi adoption of ETH-based products could make it a decent grinder, but not now.
Avi Felman Principal, GoldenTree Asset Management 45:23
Don't give up on Aerodrome, Syrup.
Crypto products that make money, grow, and are useful in financial applications should do well over the next 2-3 years and their token prices should follow. He is down on Syrup but says it is not time to give up on Aerodrome or Syrup; bookmark them, tax-loss harvest, and rebuy when Bitcoin starts to rally.
Up Next

This 1000x Podcast video, published December 15, 2025, features Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg discussing ETH, BTC, SOL, HOOD, TSLA, ALTCOINS, GLD, SILVER, GDX, SPY, AI-SECTOR, SYRUP, AERODROME. 12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Avi Felman, Jonah Van Bourg  · Tickers: ETH, BTC, SOL, HOOD, TSLA, ALTCOINS, GLD, SILVER, GDX, SPY, AI-SECTOR, SYRUP, AERODROME