‘Hurricane Coming’: Brutal Warning For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold In 2026 | Mike McGlone
Speakers
Mike McGlone
— Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence
Summary
Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence warns that a deflationary 'hurricane' is coming in 2026, with a US stock-market correction and broad risk-asset de-risking. He expects Bitcoin to fall toward $10,000, crude oil to keep dropping, and favors Treasuries as the risk-off shelter while cautioning that gold and silver are extremely stretched after historic rallies. He also flags low volatility, crypto altcoins going to zero, and technical rollovers in MicroStrategy, Microsoft, and Nvidia.
- Mike McGlone says severe deflationary forces and a US stock-market correction are likely in 2026.
- He favors US Treasuries as a risk-off hedge and expects bond yields to fall.
- He expects Bitcoin to drop to $10,000 and is bearish on broad crypto and joke coins.
- He is cautious on gold and silver after their best year since 1979, citing extreme stretch.
- He says crude oil is heading lower amid energy deflation.
- He sees low stock-market volatility as a warning that volatility/VIX will rise.
- He notes technical rollovers in MicroStrategy, Microsoft, and Nvidia as signs of broad de-risking.
- He does not recommend overweighting gold and silver or adding new risk exposure.
Ideas
Bitcoin heading to $10,000 in bear market
Bitcoin peaked in 2024 after speculation, ETFs, and Trump's conversion to crypto, and is now in a new bear market. He expects the first stop around $50,000, then a drop to $10,000. Crypto supply is unlimited with 28 million-plus coins, so Bitcoin is not scarce like precious metals, it is correlated to speculative small caps, and it trades as a highly speculative digital asset that is reverting lower. The decline is linked to the coming stock-market correction and falling yields.
Expects S&P 500 correction/crash next year
Mike sees a deflationary 'hurricane' and expects a normal but potentially crash-like market reversion in 2026. The S&P 500 is historically expensive versus GDP and the rest of the world, has not had many down total-return years since 2008, and is rolling over as risk assets de-risk. He expects a correction toward the 200-day moving average around 6,200 and possibly toward 5,000, with a down year in total returns, even as the Fed eases.
Gold too stretched; avoid new long exposure
Gold had its best year since 1979 and is historically stretched, about 85% above its 60-month moving average and roughly three standard deviations, with a long consolidation near the top. As a risk manager, he says these are not levels to initiate or overweight long gold; history shows poor forward returns from such extremes and a broader risk-asset correction would likely drag gold down too. He still sees possible momentum to $5,000, but he is taking profits and stepping back from his prior gold alpha.
Crude oil heading lower on deflation
Crude oil is heading lower and made a new low for the year around $55 per barrel. The deflationary backdrop, with China export demand shut off and global easing needed, supports lower energy prices, and he is pointing out the downside. His piece flags crude at $40 as a 2026 track.
Overweight Treasuries as deflation risk-off shelter
He favors Treasuries as the risk-off shelter in the coming deflation and market correction. The Fed has started buying Treasuries, bond yields should fall primarily because the stock market and risk-asset wealth creation are rolling over, and long Treasury bonds act like a stock-market put while yielding around 4.8% on the long bond and 4.15% on the 10-year. He expects the US 10-year yield to head toward China's 1.85% level.
Short broad crypto; many tokens go zero
Mike says the crypto rally is over for now and he is more willing to short the broad crypto market because many tokens will go to zero. The space has unlimited supply, high correlation, poor performance since ETFs launched, and is the riskiest risk asset; a small S&P 500 correction should accelerate the crypto downturn.
MicroStrategy rolling over, leading crypto lower
MicroStrategy was a key leading indicator on the way up for crypto and the broad risk market; now it has rolled over and is leading the way lower, having dropped sharply on a one-year basis and almost 70% from its peak. With Bitcoin and crypto rolling over, MSTR remains a leading bearish proxy and indicator to watch.
Microsoft double top heading lower
Microsoft has formed a complete double top and is heading lower, part of the broader US equity market rolling over and de-risking.
Nvidia head-and-shoulders pattern points lower
Nvidia has formed an almost perfect head-and-shoulders pattern and is heading lower, adding evidence that the broader market is rolling over and de-risking.
Silver overextended; avoid overweighting after huge run
Silver also had its best year since 1979 and has caught up strongly versus gold. He warns that commodities which pop this much historically are not ones to overweight; silver's 1979 year ended around $32/oz and this year's low was about $28/oz after roughly 50 years of little net progress. He says not to go out of your way to be overweight long gold or silver at these levels.
Volatility too low and likely rises
S&P 500 volatility is extremely low, with 120-day volatility around 11%, the lowest since 2009, and VIX buried around 17. With gold so stretched and the market rolling over, he expects stock-market volatility to rise, which usually means stock prices fall. Low volatility is also a bad time to add new risk-asset longs.
Bitcoin dominance should rise as altcoins collapse
When asked if Bitcoin dominance could rise, Mike says completely. Bitcoin is the original and scarce crypto with a hard cap, while there are unlimited companion tokens and many altcoins and joke coins are going to zero. So even in a broad crypto bear market, Bitcoin should hold up better than the rest of crypto.
Joke coins Dogecoin, Shiba Inu go zero
Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are joke coins that track nothing. Dogecoin peaked around $60 billion and is now about $20 billion; Shiba Inu peaked around $20 billion and is now about $4 billion. He thinks they are going to zero, and a lot of crypto participants expect such speculative excess to be flushed out.
Up Next
This The David Lin Report video, published December 16, 2025, features Mike McGlone discussing BTC, SPY, GLD, WTI, TLT, Cryptocurrencies, MSTR, MSFT, NVDA, SILVER, VIX, Bitcoin dominance, DOGE, SHIB. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Mike McGlone · Tickers: BTC, SPY, GLD, WTI, TLT, Cryptocurrencies, MSTR, MSFT, NVDA, SILVER, VIX, Bitcoin dominance, DOGE, SHIB